As the NFL season approaches, sports bettors are preparing their futures portfolios in advance of Week 1. Throughout this article, I will discuss the importance of price shopping and why it is crucial for long-term sports betting success.

Analysis of the numbers, the identification of value in those numbers, and the betting of that value is the key to long-term success in sports betting. You are losing one of your greatest advantages as a sports bettor if you do not have multiple accounts at a variety of our top-rated sportsbooks.

In the following sections, we will discuss the hold percentage and how price shopping can help you overcome this advantage held by the sportsbooks.

What is the Hold?

The hold is basically the percentage of money that the sportsbooks keep for every dollar bet on that specific market. In other words, it's their commission for running the market and making it available for you to bet on.

Why is it Important?

It is crucial for bettors to understand and pay attention to the hold percentage, as the higher the hold, the more difficult it will be for you to turn a profit, and the easier it will be for the sportsbooks.

The more complex the sports betting market becomes, the higher the sportsbooks increase their hold to protect themselves against potential liabilities. Generally, you will find a very low hold on a point spread when compared to a futures market, as it is an easier market for sportsbooks to control and there are fewer options for betting.

A major criticism of betting on futures is the high hold compared to a point spread. While this is true, there are many ways to combat it, and price shopping is essential to reducing the hold.

My objective with this article is to examine three different NFL futures markets and to illustrate the difference between the hold and the value of using multiple sportsbooks to place your bets.

I used the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook for each market, and then created my own sportsbook by using the odds from DraftKings, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM for each market.

Super Bowl LVII Odds

The Super Bowl market is typically one where the hold hovers in the 20-30% range for the sportsbooks, which is exactly where DraftKings is at with their 20.55% hold. A market like this has a much higher hold than a typical point spread (4.76%) since there are so many potential winners.

Although the hold is higher than a point spread, it is nowhere near as high as some of the other markets that also offer a wide variety of options. While the hold is high, it is not as high as we may see elsewhere due to the fact that the sportsbooks are more confident with the Super Bowl futures than, for example, the Offensive Rookie of the Year futures.

In the Super Bowl market, we were able to reduce the hold from 20.55% to 11.71% by shopping around and taking the best available odds from several sportsbooks. These numbers may not seem significant, but they are crucial to long-term success in sports betting.

DraftKings must establish a hold of 20.55% to protect against potential liabilities, but that does not mean you should be limited to only one market that forces you to play by their numbers. The greatest advantage you have is the ability to create your own sportsbook by combining the odds of several shops to reduce the hold.

NFC North Division Odds

Here's where the fun begins. So many people will say not to bet futures because the hold is much larger than that of a point spread (4.76%), but look what we achieved here.

Since we have a smaller market with fewer betting options, sportsbooks are comfortable putting a smaller hold on the market. There is only an 8.64% hold on the NFC North market at DraftKings, while there is a 20.55% hold on the Super Bowl odds.

We are able to reduce the hold in the NFC North market to 3.9% by shopping around and creating our own sportsbook by using multiple shops. An NFL game with a -110/-110 point spread (4.76%) has a higher hold percentage than our NFC North market.

There is no doubt that the NFC North market initially has a higher hold than any point spread, but this is only true if you are using one sportsbook. When you price shop in markets such as "to win your division", you will be able to establish holds that are lower than those of a point spread.

One of the most important things you should take away from what I am showing you is how to allocate your units properly when betting on futures. You have a much greater advantage as a bettor in smaller markets such as these, where you can establish a low hold by using multiple sportsbooks. In these markets, you should increase the number of units you are betting.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

It is alarming to see an 80.3% hold in the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, which should raise a red flag for any bettor. There is no doubt that this market is designed to give the sportsbooks a massive advantage over bettors.

DraftKings has decided to put a massive hold on this market as a result of so many betting options and so much uncertainty surrounding relatively unknown players.

Again, take a look at what we were able to accomplish with some price shopping. By creating our own sportsbook, we were able to cut the hold percentage nearly in half. While it is still not beneficial for us as bettors since the hold is 40.38%, it is better than the 80.3% if we had only one account at DraftKings.

I am not being the fun police and saying not to bet on this market, but at the very least be aware of what you are betting into. In the event that you find an edge on a player to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year, you should keep the units you bet low, as this market is intended to be very difficult to beat.

Where to Bet on NFL Futures

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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