How to Bet $20 on the NFL This Week: Week 4 NFL Betting Guide

I am back with this week’s NFL betting guide for Week 4, which should be used as a means to get creative with various NFL picks while adhering to a responsible budget.

My NFL predictions for Week 4 back a Green Bay rookie wide receiver to score his first touchdown while expecting one of the NFL’s hottest offenses to be in for its worst game of the season.

Here is how I would split up a $20 bankroll for Week 4. You can scale these picks to whatever your budget is for all your NFL picks throughout the weekend.

💵 NFL betting guide: Week 4

NFL expert picks for Week 4; check the latest NFL odds for the best odds.

Want to calculate these bets for your own budget? Check out our odds converter to determine the profit for any wager amount.

⬇️ Ravens-Chiefs Under 48.5 ($5)

The Ravens' run defense was exposed in the Week 3 loss to the Lions. Detroit’s 207 rushing yards between the tackles was the most for the Lions or against the Ravens since 2006. And Baltimore’s 224 rush yards allowed overall was the team’s most since 2017.

The good news for Baltimore is that Kansas City is not built to take advantage of that weakness. 

The Chiefs had a season-high 23 designed rush plays in last week’s win over the Giants. Their 4.5 yards per rush were also their most in the last 12 games, including the playoffs. However, that was more matchup-based and does not address the bigger issue that Kansas City running backs ranked 26th or worse in yards per rush and yards after contact per rush just one week prior.

Though this total is at 48.5 across the market, FanDuel is the only of our best sports betting sites charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the Under. At -105 odds carrying a 51.22% implied probability, a $5 winning wager would net $4.76 in profits.

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⬇️ Colts team total Under 22.5 ($4)

The Colts' offense and Daniel Jones’ resurgence have been the talk of the league through three weeks.

Jones became the first quarterback with three or more touchdown passes, at least three touchdown runs, and zero turnovers in the first three games of a season in the Super Bowl era. In addition, Indianapolis has punted just once, which is the fewest through three games since 1945.

However, the Colts are about to face a big step up in class against a Rams defense that held Saquon Barkley to 2.3 yards per rush last week, his fewest in a game with the Eagles. If Los Angeles similarly stymies the league’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor, I do not yet fully trust Jones to light up the scoreboard with his arm alone, especially outdoors.

DraftKings was charging -118 odds at a 54.13% implied probability to back the team total Under of 23.5. But 23 is not a key betting number in football, and the difference on the alternate team total at 22.5 is massive at +110 odds, especially since FanDuel’s odds are at -102 for the same number. A $4 winning wager at +110 odds would net $4.40 in profits.

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🔥 Matthew Golden anytime touchdown scorer ($4)

Packers wide receiver Matthew Golden has an excellent chance to score his first NFL touchdown this week. He faces a Cowboys defense that ranks 31st in yards per play allowed (6.5) and has allowed an NFL-worst 13 plays of at least 25 yards. 

In zone defense this year, the Cowboys rank 29th in completion percentage allowed (77%), last in yards per attempt (10.4), last in touchdown percentage (7.8%), and last in Total QBR (93). 

If Dallas continues to employ zone coverage on 87% of opponents’ dropbacks, the highest zone rate in the NFL, it is destined for more games like last week when it allowed three touchdowns in zone coverage against the Bears. 

Golden has pitched in five rushing attempts, and his versatility in adding ways to find the end zone makes his 30.77% anytime touchdown implied odds attractive. Compared to the +200 odds on the low end of the market, DraftKings’ +225 odds are a steal and would fetch $9 in profits on a winning $4 wager.

🦅 Eagles -3.5 ($3)

Philadelphia overcame a 19-point deficit against the Rams last week, its largest comeback since 2010, in large part because it revved up its passing game. The Eagles connected for three touchdown passes in the second half after totaling zero through the first 10 quarters, and that balance should bode well in this matchup of 3-0 teams.

The Buccaneers have played with fire each week, as Baker Mayfield is now one of two quarterbacks to lead a fourth-quarter comeback in each of the first three games of a season since 1950. Now Tampa Bay has injury issues across its offensive line and will be without the services of wide receiver Mike Evans, and that has me expecting the Bucs to be dealt their first loss.

We are maximizing our value by taking advantage of FanDuel’s -105 odds, as most other best sports betting apps charge the standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds to lay the points with the favorite. If the Eagles cover, my $3 wager would return $2.86 in profits.

⬆️ Jaylen Warren Over 21.5 receiving yards ($2)

Through three weeks, Steelers running back Jaylen Warren leads the NFL in yards after the catch over expected and is second in missed tackles forced.

I expect Warren to again be heavily involved in Pittsburgh’s passing attack out of the backfield against a blitz-happy Brian Flores Vikings defense. 

Warren has finished with 22 or more receiving yards in all three games this season. Thus, there is no reason to expect a sudden dip in that production, especially with the team as underdogs and the game script possibly calling for the Steelers to throw the ball.

There is outstanding value at this price and number with 52.38% implied odds at BetMGM, as Warren’s O/U for receiving yards is as high as 23.5 at other sportsbooks. If Warren exceeds this total, a winning $2 wager would net $1.82 in profits.

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⬆️ DJ Moore Over 48.5 receiving yards ($2)

This wager plays off fellow Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze’s success. Odunze has four touchdowns, which is tied for the most by a Bears player through the first three games of a season.

With defenses needing to pay more attention to Odunze, I expect DJ Moore to capitalize on one-on-one matchups. The Raiders have allowed the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, and Bears head coach Ben Johnson will likely employ another pass-heavy game from Caleb Williams, which Chicago rode to its first victory last week.

Moore has only gone over this projected total once through three games. But this is a great buy-low spot on a player who has seen at least five targets per game. A $2 winning wager through BetMGM’s -115 odds at a 53.49% implied probability would pay out $1.74 in profits.

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