Geno Smith Player Prop Picks, Predictions Week 15: Quit Sleeping on Seattle's Star QB

As the Seahawks and 49ers prepare for Thursday Night Football, Jon Metler takes a closer look at three of Geno Smith's player props.
Jon Metler
Jon Metler

Last Updated: September 11, 2024 2:44 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith has completely turned his career around this season – but how will he handle a challenging rematch with the division-rival San Francisco 49ers? Read on for our Geno Smith player prop picks for Thursday Night Football based on current odds.

Let's stop the crazy talk.

Geno Smith is going to prove to everyone on Thursday Night Football why he deserves to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. Smith was a failed starter for two seasons with the New York Jets, but now he's dropping dimes with the Seattle Seahawks. 

Of course, you could continue to sleep on Smith – and I'm fine with it, since it gives me a chance to bet on the Over for his player props!

Here are our best Geno Smith player prop picks for the 49ers vs. Seahawks Week 15 matchup (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets.

Check out our Thursday Night Football prop picks, as well as our Christian McCaffrey prop picks, 49ers-Seahawks picks, and 49ers vs. Seahawks same-game parlay picks!

Geno Smith Player Prop Picks for Week 15

  • Smith Over 238.5 passing yards (+102 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Smith Over 20.5 passing completions (-130 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Smith Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-138 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

49ers vs. Seahawks Odds

Geno Smith Player Props

Over 238.5 passing yards (+102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Smith had one of his lowest passing outputs of the season against the 49ers in Week 2 with 197 yards. The Seahawks were unable to get anything going against this 49ers defense in Round 1, but I actually believe that this narrative gives you an advantage on Thursday night. 

Smith is projected to throw for 251 yards Thursday against the 49ers, which means the Over on his passing yards prop of 238.5 should be trading at -140 instead of +102.

Caesars doesn't have the lowest total at 238.5 (that honor belongs to PointsBet, which is trading it at 235.5) but does have the best price at 238.5 (+102). The 238.5 line, priced at +102 through Caesars, offers better odds for the bettor than 235.5 (-115) due to the difference in juice. 

Over 20.5 passing completions (-130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Despite having only 197 passing yards against the 49ers in Week 2, Smith completed 24 of 30 passes. This season, Smith has been a picture of accuracy – completing 71.5% of his passes, which ranks first in the NFL and is more than 3% higher than second place. 

It's projected that Smith will complete 23 passes on Thursday against the 49ers, well above the total of 20.5. The Over on the total of 20.5 has some heavy juice at -130, but it's not high enough. Based on our projections, it should be trading at -190. 

When it comes to the completion market, Caesars offers the worst price. Across all sportsbooks, the total of 20.5 is a consensus number, however, the juice offered by each sportsbook varies significantly. Currently, Caesars has the total of 20.5 trading at -164, which is significantly higher than the -130 we're seeing at PointsBet. 

Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-138) ⭐⭐⭐

On Smith's passing yards and completions prop, I favor the Over, but when it comes to his passing touchdowns, I prefer the price point we're getting on the Under.

The 49ers' defense has only allowed two passing touchdowns once in the last six games. In this stretch, they held quarterbacks such as Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, and Justin Herbert to only one passing touchdown each. 

Smith is projected to throw 1.3 passing touchdowns on Thursday, which is close to the number of 1.5 – but we need two passing touchdowns to go over the total, which is a large ask.

At Caesars, BetMGM, and DraftKings, the Under 1.5 passing touchdowns is trading at -169 or higher, which is a more accurate price. I'm attacking the Under 1.5 passing touchdowns only because FanDuel is offering a rogue number at -138 – the best price by far.

Geno Smith player prop picks made 12/15/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.