First Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Sunday Night Football Week 3: Chiefs vs. Giants
The Kansas City Chiefs are 6.5-point road favorites to nab their first victory of the season when they visit MetLife Stadium to face the winless New York Giants on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.)
With both teams struggling to finish drives with touchdowns, it may take a while to cash your first touchdown scorer predictions for Sunday Night Football. But that hasn’t stopped us from making three wagers as part of our NFL predictions for Week 3, with two of them paying +2000 or better.
Read on to see who our NFL picks are backing for first touchdown scorer, and also be sure to check out our anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Sunday Night Football.
🏈 First touchdown scorer predictions Sunday Night Football: Week 3
NFL touchdown scorer picks made Sunday; NFL odds subject to change.
- Patrick Mahomes to score the first touchdown (+2000 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Malik Nabers to score the first touchdown (+1000 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Theo Johnson to score the first touchdown (+2200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
💰 Best Chiefs vs. Giants first touchdown scorer bets
Here are my favorite Chiefs vs. Giants first touchdown scorer picks for Sunday Night Football.
🔴 Chiefs first touchdown scorer prediction: Patrick Mahomes, QB (+2000) ⭐⭐⭐
Without top weapons Rashee Rice (suspended) and Xavier Worthy (injured) at his disposal, Patrick Mahomes is having to take things into his hands more often. He leads all QBs in rushing yards through two weeks, scampering at least six times in each of KC’s first two games.
To put that into context, Mahomes didn’t attempt six rushes in any of the Chiefs’ final nine regular season games last season. He’s also outpaced all of KC’s running backs combined this season in rushing yards, rushing first downs and rushing touchdowns after scoring majors in both outings.
bet365 is offering the best price on Mahomes first touchdown, hanging a juicy +2000 at the time of writing — double the +1000 at BetMGM and several other sportsbooks. That implies just a 4.8% chance that Mahomes opens the scoring with a rushing TD, but you’ll be rewarded with a $200 profit on a $10 wager if he does.
🗽 Giants first touchdown scorer prediction: Malik Nabers, WR (+1000) ⭐⭐⭐
Given New York’s struggles in the red zone so far this season (one TD on seven trips), it makes sense to target the Giants’ biggest deep threat on a first touchdown prop. Nabers is capable of striking at any time, evidenced by last week’s 48-yard TD catch in the final minute of regulation against the Dallas Cowboys.
Even if New York is inside the Chiefs’ 20-yard line, Nabers is still an obvious choice for Russell Wilson. Wilson has looked for Nabers on four of his 17 red zone targets through the first two weeks.
All of the leading sportsbooks are paying +850 or better on Nabers first touchdown, but I was able to find +1000 at bet365. A $10 wager there implies a 9.1% probability and the chance to profit a tidy $100.
🎯 Best long shot to score first touchdown: Theo Johnson, TE (+2200) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
As Jerry Seinfeld famously noted to George Costanza, if every instinct you have is wrong, the opposite would have to be right. So with the Giants struggling to finish off drives, perhaps they’ll finally begin turning to Johnson, their highly-touted 2024 draft pick who has scored just one TD so far in his career.
To be fair, Wilson has actually been looking for Johnson near the goal line, targeting him three times in the red zone already this season. And while the Chiefs’ defense is well known for slowing down opposing tight ends (tied for the second-fewest fantasy points allowed to the position this season, per CBS Sports), Johnson’s size (6-foot-6) and vertical (39.5 inches) can help him create separation in traffic.
You should be able to find at least +2000 odds on Theo Johnson first touchdown at any sportsbook, but bet365, DraftKings and FanDuel are your best options at +2200. Those odds suggest a 4.4% chance of Johnson opening the scoring Sunday night, with the chance to return $220 on a $10 wager.
📈 Sunday Night Football first touchdown scorer odds
Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
📺 Chiefs vs. Giants game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 21
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
- How to watch: NBC
❓NFL betting FAQs
What does first touchdown scorer mean?
The first touchdown scorer bet in NFL betting means you're wagering on the first player to reach the end zone (excluding passing TDs). It's one of the most popular NFL prop bets, especially for prime-time games.
What does first touchdown scorer mean for a QB?
A first touchdown scorer bet for a quarterback means the QB must run or catch a touchdown - passing touchdowns don’t count. It's a popular NFL prop bet for mobile or trick-play QBs.
How do NFL touchdown scorer bets work?
There are multiple different ways to make your NFL touchdown scorer predictions. You can wager on a player to score an anytime touchdown, which pays out if they reach the end zone at any point for a touchdown. You can also bet on a player to score the first or last touchdown, multiple touchdowns, or to score in a particular half or quarter for larger payouts.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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