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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Picks, Predictions NFL Week 5: Will Brady Torch Atlanta Again?

Top NFL picks for the Week 5 NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Buccaneers.
Mike Spector
Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 11, 2024 2:42 PM EDT • 4 minute read

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off back-to-back losses but figure to face an easier test against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5. Read on for our top Falcons-Buccaneers picks.

The Buccaneers suffered home losses to the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs in the last two weeks. They'll hope to get right against the division rival Falcons with the two teams knotted atop the NFC South at 2-2.

Atlanta has won back-to-back games over the Seattle Seahawks and Cleveland Browns. The Falcons also covered the spread in all four games this season but are without running back Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Kyle Pitts for this Week 5 matchup.

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top Week 5 picks.

Here are our Falcons-Buccaneers NFL picks for Week 5 (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Game Info

Date: Sunday, Oct. 9, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Weather: 87 degrees, 15% chance of precipitation, 11-mph NE wind

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds Analysis

Tampa Bay has the support of the betting community with 79% of tickets and 64% of the handle on the Buccaneers. This has caused the consensus opening spread of Bucs -8 to grow to -10 as of Sunday morning.

The Over/Under has dropped by 1.5 points from an opening line of 47.5. While 62% of the tickets are on the Over, those account for just 36% of the handle as the sharp money seems to be on the Under.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Picks

  • Spread: Buccaneers -9.5 (-110 via BetMGM) 
  • Over/Under: Under 46.5 (-110 via Caesars)
  • Prop: Buccaneers To Win Both Halves (+120 via DraftKings) 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers ATS Pick

Buccaneers -9.5 (-110) ★★★

Atlanta has back-to-back wins by four or fewer points and has run its total to nine one-possession victories (tied for the most in the NFL) since the start of last season. However, those wins against Seattle and Cleveland pale in comparison to the Buccaneers' gauntlet, as they have played the league's most challenging schedule through the first four weeks. 

Tampa Bay ranks outside the top 10 in passing offense at 251.8 yards per game, one year after leading the league with 307.6 yards per game and Brady's NFL-high 43 passing touchdowns. However, regression will come for the Buccaneers offense, and it could come as early as this week with Chris Godwin and Julio Jones optimistic about playing after returning to practice.

We are making this wager as Buccaneers backers at Caesars, as it is the only sportsbook offering a line of -8.5 instead of -9.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers O/U Pick

Under 46.5 (-110) ★★★★

The Falcons are coming off a 202-rushing-yard performance last week, its highest total since 2018. However, their top two running backs, Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams are both on IR. We do not expect Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley to run all over a stout Buccaneers defense. To make matters worse, tight end Kyle Pitts has been ruled out with an injury.

Tampa Bay allowed 41 points and 189 rushing yards last week (both its worst since 2018), and the Chiefs converted 12-of-17 third downs (worst since '17). All three of those numbers are the worst in Todd Bowles' time as a head coach or defensive coordinator. However, although Kansas City torched Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers still rank No. 3 in defensive efficiency, allowing 17.0 PPG (t-5th). 

Atlanta has the league's eighth-best EPA per pass play but is not committed to throwing the football, attempting the third-fewest pass plays in the league (50.4%). That will make it easier to defend Mariota and the Falcons offense.

The Under is 10-1 in Tampa Bay's last 11 games when allowing 150-plus rushing yards the week prior, so expect another similarly strong defensive effort this week.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prop Pick

Buccaneers to win both halves (+120) ★★★

Tampa Bay is a big -425 moneyline favorite, so it is all the more appealing that we are getting them to score more points than Atlanta in each half at plus odds. The Buccaneers' first four opponents went a combined 46-22 last year, with three of the four winning at least 12 games in the regular season.

Brady and Co. will take advantage of a considerable scheduling advantage, with this being their third consecutive home game. Look for the Buccaneers to start and finish strong.

Where to Bet on Falcons vs. Buccaneers Picks

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

Falcons-Buccaneers picks made 10/7/2022 at 6:18 a.m. ET

Written by:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”