NFL Best Bets Week 5: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions

The Philadelphia Eagles are the only team in the NFL with a perfect record intact entering Sunday of Week 5. Will the Arizona Cardinals put an end to that? Read on for our NFL best bets of Week 5.

Parity is high in the NFL with 15 teams starting 2-2. That equals the mark set in 2017 for the most 2-2 teams in a single season in NFL history, per ESPN Stats & Info. Sunday's slate is flush with divisional matchups as teams start jostling for positioning.

Here are our best bets for the NFL's slate in Week 5 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Sunday's NFL Schedule and Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

• New York Giants (+295) vs. Green Bay Packers (-360)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+600) vs. Buffalo Bills (-850)
• Los Angeles Chargers (-130) vs. Cleveland Browns (+110)
• Chicago Bears (+290) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-350)
• Detroit Lions (+145) vs. New England Patriots (-170)
• Seattle Seahawks (+190) vs. New Orleans Saints (-225)
• Miami Dolphins (-175) vs. New York Jets (+150)
• Atlanta Falcons (+350) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-435)
• Tennessee Titans (-130) vs. Washington Commanders (+110)
• Houston Texans (+265) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-320)
• San Francisco 49ers (-260) vs. Carolina Panthers (+220)
• Dallas Cowboys (+190) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-225)
• Philadelphia Eagles (-215) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+185) 
• Cincinnati Bengals (+150) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-175)
• Las Vegas Raiders (+260) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-315)

Sunday's NFL Best Bets

• Moneyline: 49ers (-260 via DraftKings) ★★★
• Spread: Bills -14 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★
• Total: Cowboys-Rams Under 43.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★★
• Upset: Cardinals (+198 via FanDuel) ★★★
• Player Prop: Justin Herbert Over 276.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★

Sunday's NFL Top Picks

Moneyline: 49ers (-275)

This game has all the makings of a trap spot for San Francisco, traveling across the country on a short week, while Carolina plays its third consecutive home game. However, the 49ers' pass rush is wrecking games this season. They enter with a 10% sack percentage (best in the league), 38% pressure percentage (second), and 58 pressures (second). In addition, Nick Bosa's 23 pressures through four weeks are the most in the NFL, and the team is coming off a seven-sack performance against the L.A. Rams. 

San Francisco allows an NFL-low 11.5 PPG and won its second game by more than 14 pts. Carolina's offense has yet to get humming under Baker Mayfield, so the Panthers are not a threat to pull an upset, even with all the scheduling and situational advantages it enjoys.

Spread: Bills -14 (-110)

History is being made with this spread, as Pittsburgh is the only team since the AFL/NFL merger never to have been at least a 14-point underdog, per @MackNova. Thus, oddsmakers suggest this one could get ugly, given the game's circumstances.

Before last week's three-point win over the Ravens, 13 of Buffalo's last 14 victories were by 14-plus points, winning by an average of 23.4 points. Therefore, we do not expect Pittsburgh to be competitive in this game in Kenny Pickett's first NFL start, which comes on the road against arguably the best team in the league.

Pickett did some good things in relieving Mitch Trubisky last week, like becoming the first quarterback since 1970 with two or more rushing touchdowns in his first career game. However, the bad was that his three incompletions all went for interceptions, and he will be hard-pressed to lead his team to more than the 17 points it has averaged during its three-game losing streak.

Total: Cowboys-Rams Under 43.5 (-110)

Dallas' defense has been record-setting through the first four weeks, as the Cowboys are the first team to hold its first four opponents to 19 points or fewer for the first time since 1973. The Cowboys have 15 sacks, and their 65 pressures are the third-most behind the 2020 Steelers (72) and 2018 Steelers (67) through the first four weeks of a season. Dallas now faces a Rams team that allowed seven sacks on Monday night against San Francisco, and Matthew Stafford was pressured on 17 of 56 dropbacks, the second-most since 2021.

Los Angeles also had no touchdowns in a game for the fourth time under Sean McVay, and the most glaring issue is the Rams have not had anyone on offense outside of Cooper Kupp make plays. Kupp was the only Ram wideout with more than two catches last week, and until someone else steps up, Los Angeles will continue to be involved in defensive struggles.

Upset: Cardinals (+198)

Philadelphia is the only remaining unbeaten team, but we are taking a flier on the Arizona Cardinals to snap a seven-game home losing streak (its longest since 1956-58) in a big way this week.

Arizona's offense looks to build on the momentum it generated in the second half of last week's 26-16 road win against Carolina. The Cardinals scored on their first four possessions of the second half (three touchdowns, one field goal), as Kyler Murray went 10-for-12 with 117 yards and three touchdowns over the final 30 minutes. 

The Eagles have a massive home date looming with the Cowboys next week, making this week's trip to the desert a tricky spot and a likely upset if they are not careful.

Player prop: Herbert Over 276.5 passing yards (-115)

Justin Herbert joined Rich Gannon as the second player ever with 300-plus passing yards in seven consecutive road games. He now faces a Cleveland Browns defense against which he threw for nearly 400 yards last year.

Cleveland ranks 31st in the league in yards per catch to opposing wide receivers, despite facing a less-than-stellar crop of quarterbacks. Two of those (Joe Flacco and Mitch Trubisky) are no longer starting for their respective teams, so Herbert and the high-octane Chargers offense should have a field day on the road in this matchup.

Where to Bet on the NFL

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

NFL Week 5 best bets made on 10/7/22 at 6:29 a.m.