Falcons vs. Bengals Picks, Predictions NFL Week 7: Is it Time to Believe in Atlanta?
The Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals both won three of their last four games en route to a 3-3 record. Read on for our top Falcons-Bengals picks of Week 7.
Atlanta has beaten the Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns, and San Francisco 49ers in recent weeks while taking a hard-luck loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5. That has the Falcons in a surprising tie with those Buccaneers for the top spot in the NFC South.
Cincinnati has rebounded from an 0-2 start to get to 3-3. The Bengals picked up a 30-26 road win at the New Orleans Saints last week and enter this matchup in a tie for first place in the AFC North.
Check out all of our top NFL picks for Week 7, as well as our best bets!
Here are our Falcons-Bengals NFL picks for Week 7 (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Falcons vs. Bengals Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022
TV: FOX
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Weather: 64 degrees, sunny
Falcons vs. Bengals Odds
Falcons vs. Bengals Odds Analysis
The consensus spread opened at Bengals -6.5 and remains there as of Sunday morning even with 62% of the tickets accounting for 72% of the handle on the home team.
The Over/Under has risen from an opening line of 43.5 to 47.5 on gameday. Bettors are aligned on the Over with 87% of the tickets accounting for 90% of the handle.
Falcons vs. Bengals Picks
Falcons vs. Bengals ATS Pick
Falcons +6.5 (-105) ★★★★
We shouldn't be so quick to write off the Falcons. They’re sixth in points per play and rank seventh while scoring 2.7 touchdowns per game. The club is 13th in passing DVOA on offense, and Atlanta is averaging 4.9 yards per carry while also ranking in the top five in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns per contest. They sit atop the rushing DVOA rankings.
Atlanta is committed to the run, and the team sits second in rush-play rate. Cordarrelle Patterson is dealing with an injury, but the Falcons still managed 4.2 yards per carry in Week 6, largely due to 50 yards from Marcus Mariota on six attempts.
Cincinnati is 16th in DVOA against the run and shouldn't be able to slow down the Falcons on the ground. Doing that requires being really solid up front, and that’s simply not the case right now with the Bengals. Take the points.
Falcons vs. Bengals O/U Pick
Under 47.5 (-110) ★★★
The Falcons hold a clear edge on the ground, and the Bengals should enjoy a field day throwing against a team ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass. So, what gives with this bet?
Well, both the Falcons and Bengals sit in the bottom eight of the league in pace. The Bengals are 30th of 32 teams in pace when down seven-plus points, and Atlanta is 26th in that category. Both of these offenses take their sweet time, regardless of whether one team is in control of the proceedings.
This line has also moved a little too much for my liking. We’re seeing an inflated number after both offenses enjoyed success in Week 6. The Bengals’ offense quite possibly isn't good enough to justify this number.
Falcons vs. Bengals Prop Pick
Mariota Over 34.5 rushing yards (-105) ★★★★
Mariota has rushed for 50-plus yards in three of six games in 2022, and there was a perfectly good explanation for the contests when he missed. The Seattle Seahawks are incredibly vulnerable to the pass, and the Los Angeles Rams' run defense is excellent. And the Cleveland Browns? They kept the Falcons off the field for most of the game and also boast a solid front seven.
The Bengals don’t fit the bill here, and their lack of a strong rush defense should help Mariota maximize his touches on the ground. Lamar Jackson recorded 58 yards on two carries against this Cincinnati defense in Week 5.
Where to Bet on Falcons-Bengals Picks
Falcons-Bengals picks made 10/20/2022 at 7:19 p.m. ET
