NFL Expert Picks & Staff Predictions: Week 10

Our NFL expert picks and staff predictions are here to set you up for success for the Week 10 Sunday slate. The SBR team is covering five matchups, featuring plays on the Bills vs. Dolphins, Falcons vs. Colts in Munich, Ravens vs. Vikings, Patriots vs. Buccaneers, and Rams vs. 49ers.

Read on for our comprehensive NFL predictions for Week 10.

🔮 NFL expert picks: Week 10

NFL picks made by Dustin Saracini, Gary Pearson, LJ Blut, and Sean Tomlinson based on the best odds for Week 10.

This weekend features a handful of games to keep your eye on, starting with the Falcons vs. Colts in Munich and ending with the Rams vs. 49ers.

Whether you're looking for Week 10 upset picks or AI predictions, we have you covered. But first, let's cash with the SBR staff.

🆚 Expert NFL game picks

Dustin Saracini: Patriots +2.5 vs. Buccaneers

I've recently come to the conclusion that the Bucs may be frauds. Other than a win against the Seahawks, they've beaten the Texans, Falcons, Jets, 49ers, and the lowly Saints, with losses to the Eagles and Lions. Whenever they go up against an elite team, they crumble. The Pats may not be elite, but they're getting there. Give me Drake Maye and Stefon Diggs to cover and potentially win this one outright.

Follow Dustin on X and SBR.

Gary Pearson: Rams -4.5 vs. 49ers 

The Rams lost a weird one to the 49ers the last time they met. The 49ers' injury situation has improved, albeit only slightly. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has been dominant since, tossing 10 TDs and no picks. He’s one of the most clutch QBs, and he’ll be ready to exact some revenge on the loathed division rivals.

Follow Gary on X and SBR.

Sean Tomlinson: Bills -8.5 vs. Dolphins

A 34-10 thumping of the Falcons is a rather baffling recent outlier from the Dolphins and their increasingly wayward offense. That game is sandwiched between two other duds on Miami’s schedule, when the Dolphins scored a combined 12 points during losses to the Browns and Ravens.

Tua Tagovailoa is at the center of the team’s woes, with his yards per attempt now down to 6.6. He’ll now face a Buffalo defense ranked second against the pass, allowing only 169.9 yards per game.

Follow Sean on X and SBR.

LJ Blut: Vikings +4.5 vs. Ravens

This Vikings team looks completely different under second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy. We just saw it defeat the Lions in Week 9. McCarthy has limited turnovers - something Carson Wentz couldn’t do - and has dramatically improved the flow of the offense.

I believe we’ll see the Vikings make a second-half playoff push this season, and I also believe they have the potential to win this game outright. The Ravens have been one of the worst cover teams in the NFL this season, with a record of 3-5 (a 37.5% cover rate).

Follow LJ on X and SBR.

🏈 Best NFL player prop bets

Dustin Saracini: Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown (+190 via FanDuel)

Don't look now, but they let Diggs get hot, and we're firing him up as part of our NFL player prop bets for Week 10.  He's now caught a touchdown in back-to-back games, and continues to be a red-zone menace. With nine targets inside the 20, Diggs is now eighth in the league in red-zone looks. His 77% catch rate (first in the NFL among qualified receivers) in that spot doesn't hurt either. 

Gary Pearson: Drake Maye Over 235.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

Maye hit the Over on this total in six of nine games, including four of the previous five. He’s facing a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed at least 296 passing yards in two of the last four games.

Sean Tomlinson: James Cook Over 90.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

James Cook is the definition of a workhorse. He’s been given 153 carries (third leaguewide), with Ray Davis miles back in the Bills’ backfield at 22.

The Bills are also heavily skewed toward the run while content to pummel opponents. They’ve recorded the third-most rush attempts and the fourth-fewest passes. Cook now gets to take his volume and effectiveness while averaging a whopping 108.4 yards per game against the Dolphins’ 30th-ranked run defense.

LJ Blut: Rico Dowdle anytime touchdown (-150 via FanDuel)

My favorite prop play this week is Rico Dowdle anytime touchdown at -150. Dowdle has regained his RB1 status for the Panthers and has looked great in every game he’s been the featured back. Last week, against the stout Packers defense, Dowdle found pay dirt twice.

The Saints have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, allowing 129.4 yards per game on the ground. I expect Dowdle to have a huge game here and find the end zone at least once.