Cowboys vs. Commanders Expert Picks for Christmas Day | NFL Predictions, Best Bets & Odds

Two longtime NFC East rivals clash today when the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) take on the host Washington Commanders (4-11) to kick off the NFL Christmas Day schedule today at 1 p.m. ET on Netflix. Our Cowboys vs. Commanders expert picks break down all of our predictions and best bets with the Cowboys favored by 9.5 points at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md., to open our NFL Christmas Day predictions.

🏈 Cowboys vs. Commanders expert picks: NFL Christmas Day

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🔮 Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction

Cowboys -7 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Mike Spector: "The fact that Dallas was as high as a 2.5-point home favorite against a previous 10-win Chargers team says all you need to know about how the best sports betting sites view the talent on the Cowboys' roster. In hindsight, Los Angeles was a bad matchup for the Cowboys, as it entered the game allowing just 2.6 explosive plays per game (second-best in the NFL). Conversely, Washington is not built to take advantage of Dallas’ 30th-ranked pass defense DVOA, especially if Josh Johnson is under center."

See Spector's full analysis in his Cowboys vs. Commanders predictions, including his favorite player prop bet and the best Christmas betting trends, injury report, and more. Spector has more on this matchup in his NFL best bets for Christmas Day.

🔥 Best Cowboys vs. Commanders player prop pick

Dak Prescott Over 140.5 1H passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Liam Fox: "Dak Prescott did nearly all of his damage through the air against Washington in the first half of their previous matchup this season, with Over 200 passing yards before halftime. I expect a similar story on Christmas as he takes on the 26th-ranked defense against the pass."

See Fox's full analysis in his Cowboys vs. Commanders player props, including his best bet for Terry McLaurin and Jake Ferguson today. Our Dustin Saracini has more on Prescott with his NFL player props for Christmas Day.

🙌 Best Cowboys vs. Commanders anytime touchdown scorer pick

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys (+150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Esten McLaren: "Jake Ferguson hasn't scored in over a month, but this matchup for the tight end makes this my strongest Cowboys vs. Commanders anytime touchdown scorer prediction. Washington allows tight ends to catch 76% of their targets at an average of 9.37 yards and has given up 10 touchdowns to the position through 15 games."

See McLaren's full analysis in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Cowboys vs. Commanders, including two plus-money bets on overlooked receivers. You can follow all of our NFL touchdown props for the biggest games every week, including our anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Christmas.

1️⃣ Best Cowboys vs. Commanders first touchdown scorer pick

George Pickens, WR, Cowboys (+800) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sean Tomlinson: "George Pickens snapped out of a mini slump last week against the Los Angeles Chargers while recording his fifth game this season with 130-plus yards, and his ninth touchdown. He was connecting with Dak Prescott deep often while averaging 18.6 yards per grab. He sits tied for sixth leaguewide in red-zone targets too (19). Now Pickens will take that volume and deep-ball effectiveness this season against a crumbling Washington Commanders defense that's tied for the sixth-most touchdowns given up to wide receivers (16)."

See Tomlinson's full analysis in his first touchdown scorer predictions for Christmas Day, which features the best bet for all three games today. We also break down the conditions from kickoff to the final whistle with our Cowboys vs. Commanders weather report.

🚀 Cowboys vs. Commanders same-game parlay

Here's a look at what our NFL expert Brenden Schaeffer is betting tonight with his best Cowboys vs. Commanders SGP paying out at +470 odds:

See Schaeffer's full analysis in his Cowboys vs. Commanders same-game parlay, including his analysis for all three SGP bets for this Christmas Day matchup. You can follow all of our NFL same-game parlay bets for the biggest games every week, including our NFL parlay picks for Christmas Day.

📊 Cowboys vs. Commanders odds: NFL Christmas Day

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game this season.

📺 How to watch Cowboys vs. Commanders: NFL Christmas Day

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Md.)
• TV: Netflix