Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: Dallas Faces Rookie Quarterback

Check our best Cowboys vs. Commanders picks based on the top odds.

Mike Spector

Last updated: January 8, 2023 7:46 AM EST • 4 min read

When the Dallas Cowboys take on the Washington Commanders in Week 18, they will still be vying for the NFC East title. Read on for our Cowboys-Commanders NFL picks based on the top odds.

The Cowboys (12-4) are coming off their seventh win by nine or more points this season, tied for the second-most in the league. Dallas can still win the NFC East with a victory this week and a Philadelphia Eagles loss to the New York Giants. The Cowboys are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against NFC East opponents.

The Commanders (7-8-1) were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week. It was Washington’s fifth consecutive game scoring 20 or fewer points, which prompted head coach Ron Rivera to name rookie Sam Howell the starting quarterback this week.

Here is our best Cowboys vs. Commanders NFL pick for Week 18 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets for Week 18, picks roundup, and against the spread power rankings.

Cowboys vs. Commanders Game Info

Date: Sunday, Jan. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: FedExField, Landover, MD
Weather: 46 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, 7-mph NNE wind

Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds

Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds Analysis

Dallas shot up from 4 to 7.5- point road favorites after the news of Howell being named starting quarterback surfaced. The Cowboys are one of the most popular favorites on the Week 18 slate, attracting 85% of the tickets and 96% of the cash.

The total has held firm at 41 all week, with a couple of sportsbooks moving to 40.5. Sharp action has backed the Under, as 31% of the bets and 84% of the handle is on that side.

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Cowboys vs. Commanders Pick

Commanders +7 ⭐⭐⭐

There is a precedent that a quarterback change in Washington can spark the team. Entering Week 17, the Commanders were tied for 21st in winning percentage with Carson Wentz under center while ranking 28th in offensive points per game, 24th in yards per game, and 32nd in drive score percentage. However, when the team switched to Taylor Heinicke, they had the ninth-best winning percentage and improved to 19th in offensive points per game, 12th in yards per game, and 19th in drive score percentage.

Howell’s first start is under unique circumstances in that the game’s result does not mean much to the team. Thus, the rookie should be able to play more freely instead of carrying the burden of trying to get the team to the playoffs.

In addition, Dallas suffered an under-the-radar injury that could have huge implications for this week and going forward, as center Tyler Biadasz was carted off the field at the end of the third quarter with an ankle injury last week and will not play in this game.

Washington has not covered any of its last four games, but we expect the team to snap that streak on Sunday.

Cowboys vs. Commanders Best Odds

FanDuel (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
+7	+7	+7	+7	+7
-7 -110, +7 -110	-7 -110, +7 -110	-7 -110, +7 -110	-7 +100, +7 -120	-7 -110, +7 -110

From a value perspective, there is nothing separating four of the five major sportsbooks, as all have the Commanders at +7 with standard -110 juice. The only glaring difference is at Caesars, who charges Washington backers slightly steeper -120 odds to back the underdogs. We would not recommend a play on the Commanders at anything less than a touchdown, but given how the public is loading up on the Cowboys, bettors may want to wait to see if the line ever gets to +7.5.

Cowboys-Commanders pick made 1/6/2023 at 6:32 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”