Who Are the Most Clutch QBs in the NFL? Ranking Every NFL Starter by Clutch Factor

Every football fan, analyst, and pundit has their own perspective on the most clutch quarterbacks in the NFL. But what makes one QB more clutch than another, and how can you measure it?

My NFL clutch ratings rank every starting quarterback by their "Clutch Factor" from last season - a proprietary formula based on various statistical factors that we explain below - while offering insight on what to expect in Week 1 and throughout the 2025 campaign to assist with your NFL picks.

🏈 NFL Clutch Factor: Who are the most clutch QBs?

To answer the age-old debates, we've devised our Clutch Factor ratings below, which are graded on a scale of 1 to 100 from the 2024 regular season.

As neither quarterback played last season, the Titans' No. 1 overall draft pick and Offensive Rookie of the Year odds contender Cam Ward and Vikings starter J.J. McCarthy are the only two starters who didn't receive a score. 

Both Indianapolis Colts QBs received a score. Because, well, let's be honest, it might not be too long before Anthony Richardson is tossed back into the limelight. 

🔢 How is Clutch Factor calculated?

When you think of clutch quarterbacks, who is the first name to pop into your head? And, more importantly, why does he appear in your mind?

Does Aaron Rodgers' 2016 NFC Divisional Round performance against the Dallas Cowboys, when he spearheaded a last-gasp game-winning drive, come to mind? Or maybe it's Tom Brady's outrageous Super Bowl 51 victory, in which he orchestrated the most remarkable comeback in the history of the Big Game.

While those moments will forever be etched in the annals of NFL history, one unforgettable moment or performance doesn't make a consistently clutch quarterback. Rather, they need to perform exceptionally well in high-pressure, late-game, or otherwise pivotal moments.

While pundits have debated the most clutch quarterbacks since the dawn of the sport, all of those lists are based on a mix of qualitative factors - often the dreaded "eye test" - with some statistics used in silo. They are, for the most part, subjective.

That's where we come in. Sportsbook Review's Clutch Factor ratings are determined by using nine statistics that are widely recognized as "clutch" analytics. They include:

• Game-winning drives
• 4th-quarter comebacks
• 4th-quarter rating
• QBR rating when trailing
• Non-garbage time efficiency
• Crunch-time efficiency (final two minutes of each half)
• Comeback victories
• Under-pressure rating
• Red-zone efficiency

The nine analytical categories are weighted in proportion to their importance and include key qualifiers. For example, all game-winning drives are not equal as defenses offer varying degrees of resistance, so I included a strength of defense qualifier, as well.

🧊 What makes Patrick Mahomes the NFL's most clutch QB?

Despite enduring the worst statistical season of his career thus far, Mahomes was easily the most clutch. The three-time Super Bowl winner sat atop three of the nine statistical categories, including fourth-quarter comebacks (5) and game-winning drives (7).

His seven game-winning drives were tied for the second-most in a single season, behind only Kirk Cousins (2022) and Matthew Stafford (2016).

Part of the NFL MVP odds conversation for a while, Mahomes eventually dropped off due to his palpably inferior statistics overall. But you don't need elite stats across the board to be the top of your Clutch Factor class. 

Quite simply, you just need to be clutch when it matters most - when your team needs you the most. And Mahomes did that in spades.

Led by their clutch king, the Chiefs were 12-0 in one-score games (including the postseason) and extended an NFL record with 17 consecutive wins of that variety spanning two seasons. Yes, the defense can take a bow for keeping them in most contests, but, more often than not, it was Mahomes who got them across the line. 

And if you watched any of the Chiefs games last year, you'll know it doesn't have to be pretty. 

🦬 Why is Josh Allen ranked so low in Clutch Factor? 

Josh Allen is the most impactful quarterback in the NFL. There, I said it. 

But that doesn't mean he's the most clutch. Nor does it mean he's the best. That honor, based on his MVP-caliber stats and second-best Clutch Factor rating, goes to Lamar Jackson.

Allen performed otherworldly feats that would have left demigods envious. He scored at least four touchdowns in four games, including a six-touchdown game in La La Land against the Rams.

While those eye-popping stats contributed to him winning MVP, they do not correlate to a top-notch Clutch Factor rating. Allen didn't have any fourth-quarter comebacks, primarily because his team rarely went into the last 15 minutes at a deficit. He also had only two game-winning drives, five fewer than Mahomes.

While that's more a byproduct of the Super Bowl odds favorite Bills being in a position of strength in most games, Clutch Factor rewards quarterbacks who demonstrate clutch play on the field - not just those who can do it in theory.

He received a high ranking in most other categories, but he couldn't make up for the damage caused by his lower-scoring outliers. 

🐦‍⬛ Is Lamar Jackson the NFL's best QB? What his Clutch Factor rating tells us

For all of you who believe Jackson should have been named last season's MVP, his Clutch Factor rating strengthens that stance. 

The two-time MVP winner not only had superior stats to Allen, but he was more clutch, too. He led two of the nine Clutch Factor categories and was second in three others, including red-zone efficiency. 

Jackson finished with a Clutch Factor rating of 85, six points behind Mahomes. Most of those six points were due to Mahomes' unrivaled game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comeback success. 

Combine his MVP-worthy stats and elite Clutch Factor rating, and even the best football-informed lawyer in the world wouldn't be able to argue against Jackson's case to be recognized as last season's best signal-caller.

🗒️ Clutch Factor key takeaways 

• Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford had the second-most game-winning drives (5)
• Jayden Daniels and Jared Goff tied for the second-most fourth-quarter comebacks (4), a key reason why they both ranked in the top four in Clutch Factor
• While his playing time was comparatively limited, Justin Fields had the best red-zone efficiency, helping him rank just below league average (17th) in Clutch Factor
• Among the 32 starters, excluding McCarthy and Ward, Spencer Rattler is the only quarterback who didn't win a game last season (0-6)
• Seven starting quarterbacks line up under center with new teams this season: Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, Rodgers, Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, Darnold, and Geno Smith. Only one ranked in the top 12 in Clutch Factor last season (Darnold)

👀 What to watch for in Week 1 

🔴 Patrick Mahomes faces the Los Angeles Chargers on Friday night in Sao Paulo, which I covered in my early Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction. In last season's two games against Jim Harbaugh's team, Mahomes conjured two game-winning drives and a fourth-quarter comeback. Will history repeat itself? 

🟢 Sam Darnold received the sixth-best Clutch Factor rating (81), largely due to his elite play while trailing or when the game was on the line late. He orchestrated five game-winning drives and three fourth-quarter comebacks. Keep an eye on how he performs in similar situations when his new team, the Seattle Seahawks, find themselves in similar situations.  

🏴‍☠️ Of Geno Smith's four game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comeback combos, one came against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Can he pull off another Houdini act with his new team in Las Vegas? 

🌵 Similarly, Kyler Murray was instrumental in resuscitating the Arizona Cardinals, responsible for three fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives. However, he shouldn't need either of those invaluable skills against an inferior New Orleans Saints in their opener, which I mentioned in my NFL picks against the spread. 

⛵️ Baker Mayfield had the best fourth-quarter QBR (115.3) last season. He may not need to be that cutthroat in the final 15 minutes on the road against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1.

🐾 Bryce Young had four game-winning drives, all of which occurred from Week 9 onward. Will the Carolina Panthers stay within striking distance against the Jacksonville Jaguars, providing the 24-year-old with the chance to secure another?

🦁 In Week 14, Goff, thanks to a game-winning drive and fourth-quarter comeback, led the Detroit Lions to a 34-31 win over the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field. He may need to inflict the same damage to win this rematch at Lambeau Field.

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