Does Christian McCaffrey make 49ers a top Super Bowl Pick?
Following the trade of star running back Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers to the San Francisco 49ers, sports betting analysts Neil Parker and Jon Metler discuss whether the 49ers are a good bet to win the 2023 Super Bowl.
The NFC West-co-leading 49ers swung a major deal late Thursday night. At 3-3 and battling injuries at many key positions, San Francisco landed McCaffrey from the 1-5 Panthers, who still seem to be in only the early stages of a complete firesale and lengthy rebuild from the ground up.
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Check it out as our experts debate whether McCaffrey makes the 49ers worthy of a Super Bowl pick.
Debate: Should You Bet the 49ers to Win the Super Bowl Now?
Will history repeat itself?
As I was rooting for Zach Ertz's receiving yards to go under the total at the end of the Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints matchup on Thursday Night Football, ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter hits us with a trade bomb, McCaffrey to the 49ers. Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have always been elite at their job, but beating the brakes off the Panthers to get Matt Rhule fired and trading for their star player two weeks later is next level.
Following the news, DraftKings Sportsbook adjusted the Niners' Super Bowl odds from +2500 to +1600. The adjustment is entirely justified, as the 49ers are serious Super Bowl contenders. The Niners should have done this in the past. Instead of drafting QB Trey Lance, they should have surrounded veteran Jimmy Garoppolo with even more weapons. Just imagine how dynamic this offense would be with tight end Kyle Pitts paired with George Kittle.
The acquisition of McCaffrey has immediately vaulted the Niners to the top of the NFC odds board, ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles. History often repeats itself, and the last time the Niners won a Super Bowl, Ed McCaffrey, the father of Christian McCaffrey, was on the team that lifted the Lombardi Trophy. - Metler
Niners are hampered by injuries
I also love the move for San Francisco, and I especially respect how potent the offense could become with so many dynamic playmakers. It will be a personnel nightmare to game plan for.
Imagine, Deebo Samuel and McCaffrey in the backfield at the same time knowing either or even both could motion to the slot or outside. Add Kittle, receiver Brandon Aiyuk, and utility fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and everything is in place for the 49ers to dominate the time of possession, march up and down the field, and put points on the board.
Here’s the problem …
San Francisco is already dealing with a flurry of injuries. If you know who Poppa McCaffrey is, then you also know aggravating prior and sustaining additional injuries is as common as Bay Area fog.
Additionally, are you suggesting now is the time to bet a 49ers Super Bowl ticket?
San Francisco hosts the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 and visits the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8. So, with the 49ers riddled with injuries and sporting a 3-3 record, I forecast their Super Bowl odds climbing or hovering and not dropping leading into their Week 9 bye.
If San Francisco wins its next two games, I’ll take the loss, and accept that the Niners will be trading at much lower odds. - Parker
You shouldn't wait to buy
McCaffrey's previous injury history shouldn't be used as an excuse to explain why he won't help the Niners win the Super Bowl. In fact, McCaffrey's addition should keep everyone else healthy, including Samuel. There will not be a heavy reliance on the newcomer to carry the team, as was the case with the Panthers. It is now possible for Shanahan to rotate multiple players in order to keep everyone fresh for the playoffs and for the ultimate goal.
Would I be willing to invest in the Niners right now in order to win the Super Bowl? Their price is in line with where they should be trading in the +1400 to +1600 window. However, I anticipate that it will be getting shorter very soon. Unlike you, I believe that they will defeat the Chiefs in Week 7, and then this price point will no longer be available. The time is now to invest in the Niners' futures odds if you are interested in doing so.
The Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites, are attracting 76% of the cash and 82% of the tickets, and yet the line has moved to make the Chiefs 2-point favorites. This is a major red flag and tells me I have to be on the 49ers in this matchup. - Metler
Longer odds in the future
Again, I agree with you about the San Francisco offense, but I was referring to all the 49ers already injured. Injuries have also been a constant nag for San Francisco during the Shanahan era.
Also, since you opened the McCaffrey injury door …
He’s already dealt with minor ankle and thigh injuries this season and has played only 16 of a possible 39 games dating back to the start of the 2020 campaign. While it obviously doesn’t mean he’s going to miss time this year, it would be foolish to expect him to be at 100% for Super Wild Card Weekend.
I mention the wild card because the 49ers aren’t going to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which makes their path to winning the Super Bowl even longer. Just like I anticipate their odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy to be in the future.
Still, we definitely agree on more than what we disagree on in regards to where San Francisco stands as a Super Bowl contender following the acquisition of McCaffrey.
However, we’ve definitely talked ourselves into one Week 7 disagreement — I have the Chiefs' moneyline at -130. - Parker
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