Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction Tonight: Monday Night Picks

My Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction wraps up our NFL predictions for Week 5, and I expect the Kansas City Chiefs to cover as a 3.5-point betting favorite on Monday Night Football.

Kickoff from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN) today.

My NFL picks also project Chiefs speedster Xavier Worthy to go Over 57.5 receiving yards, which is one of the three featured picks in our Chiefs vs. Jaguars player props.

📊 Chiefs vs. Jaguars odds: Monday Night Football

Latest Monday Night Football odds updated live in real time.

🏈 Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction: Monday Night Football

NFL expert picks for Monday Night Football; NFL odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Chiefs -3 (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 46.5 (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Xavier Worthy Over 57.5 receiving yards (-111 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Chiefs vs. Jaguars best bet for MNF

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

Chiefs -3 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you're into historical trends, you'll be all over the Chiefs' eight straight wins against Jacksonville, four of which were with Patrick Mahomes under center.

I'm more partial to the fact that Kansas City has been resembling the best version of itself over the last game and a half. 

While I'm not placing a ton of weight on their dominant home victory against a battered and bruised Baltimore Ravens team, I do put stock in the momentum and confidence the team gained from that comprehensive 37-20 triumph. 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are off to an impressive 3-1 start while posting the second-best EPA per play defensively and ranking fourth in overall defense, according to PFF.

However, that record is flattering since those stats have come against three of four teams with offensive rankings that sit 18th or worse (the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, and Cincinnati Bengals).

Only one of the best sports betting sites offers the Chiefs at -3, with the others featuring -3.5. I'll take the more expensive price at the key number of -3. I also backed the Chiefs at -3 in my NFL picks against the spread. 

💰 Chiefs vs. Jaguars player prop bet for MNF

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Xavier Worthy Over 57.5 receiving yards (-111) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Worthy tallied 83 receiving yards on five catches against the Ravens during his first game back.

Yes, the injury bug has been striking the Ravens, but that doesn't detract from Mahomes needing to look toward Worthy more often when wanting to attack downfield. 

Worthy should also be up to speed more in his second game back. The Jaguars' pass defense is ranked highly, with the fifth-best rating via DVOA and the second-best coverage grade (76) at PFF. However, Ja'Marr Chase recorded 164 receiving yards against them, with Jake Browning making most of the throws. 

BetMGM and bet365 offer the lowest total at 57.5 yards, with the latter posting slightly better -111 odds. Caesars provides the highest total (59.5 yards) and the worst value (-120). A winning $10 bet at bet365 would secure a $9.01 profit. 

🚑 Chiefs vs. Jaguars key injuries

• Chiefs receiver Xavier Worthy is questionable (shoulder/ankle) but should suit up on Monday Night Football.
• Jaguars pass-rusher Travon Walker is questionable with a wrist injury but is expected to play.

📺 How to watch Monday Night Football

• Matchup: Chiefs vs. Jaguars
• When: Monday, Oct. 6
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN