Chiefs vs. Giants Prediction: SNF Odds & Best Bet for Sunday Night Football
The Kansas City Chiefs are off to their first 0-2 start since 2014 while the New York Giants have started 0-2 for the 10th time in the last 13 seasons, and I use the public perception surrounding these teams as the basis for my Sunday Night Football Chiefs vs. Giants prediction.
Adding to my NFL predictions for Week 3, I expect Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco to turn in his best game of the season in his home state.
Kickoff for Sunday Night Football from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. is set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) - let's dive into my NFL picks.
🏈 Chiefs vs. Giants prediction for Sunday Night Football
NFL expert picks based on the latest Sunday Night Football odds; subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Chiefs (-280 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Giants +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 44.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
💡 Sunday Night Football expert picks
- Chiefs vs. Giants player prop bets
- Chiefs vs. Giants anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Chiefs vs. Giants first touchdown scorer predictions
- Chiefs vs. Giants parlay picks
- Chiefs vs. Giants expert picks
📝 Sunday Night Football preview & best bet
Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.
🗽 Giants +6.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kansas City’s offense has looked pedestrian against two difficult opponents in the Chargers and Eagles to start the season. While things should improve against the Giants defense, this is more of a contrarian value play in a unique situational spot, as the Chiefs’ point spread is tied for the highest of any road favorite that is 0-2 or worse since 1990.
The Chiefs have converted just 34.6% of their third-down opportunities (ranks 26th), while quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been off-target on 21% of his passes, which ranks 31st among all quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, the Giants thus far have found a complementary piece in the passing game to No. 1 wide receiver Malik Nabers. Wan’Dale Robinson saw 10 targets in Week 2, and is coming off his second-career game of 90-plus receiving yards.
Robinson also leads the league in deep targets after averaging 16.1 air yards per target last week, and has the most receiving yards from the slot. Look for New York to take advantage of this matchup, as Kansas City has allowed the second-most yards to slot receivers this year.
I cannot back New York to win outright given its poor 1-11 record in home prime-time games since 2017. But from a point-spread perspective, the value is there at BetMGM, the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a spread higher than +6. Through BetMGM’s -110 price with 52.38% implied odds, a $10 winning wager on a Giants cover would net $9.09 in profits.
💰 Best Chiefs vs. Giants player prop bet for Sunday Night Football
Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Isiah Pacheco Over 36.5 rushing yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs averaged 2.9 yards per rush by running backs in Week 2 (ranked 26th), and 1.28 yards after contact per rush (29th). But there's reason for optimism from Isiah Pacheco despite him totaling 47 rushing yards through the first two weeks.
Pacheco played 60% of the snaps last week while running double the amount of routes as Kareem Hunt, while earning 10 carries to Hunt’s eight.
Pacheco may be averaging 3.6 yards per rush since 2024 (the sixth-fewest among running backs), but this is a prime bounce-back spot against a Giants defense that has allowed the second-most yards per rush to running backs this season.
There's a big difference between the O/U of 36.5 at BetMGM and the total of 41.5 at the rest of our best sports betting apps. That five-yard difference makes paying up for the -120 price at a 54.55% implied probability worthwhile. Those odds would net $8.33 in profits on a winning $10 wager.
📊 Chiefs vs. Giants odds: SNF
NFL odds update live in real time.
📈 Chiefs vs. Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Chiefs -275 | Giants +225
- Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-110) | Giants +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
🔍 Chiefs vs. Giants odds analysis
Kansas City opened at -5.5, but that number (juiced to -120) only remains at FanDuel. The Chiefs are as high as +6.5 after garnering 64% of the early wagers, but I do not foresee this line getting to -7 based on the fact that most top sports betting sites are still at -6 despite the 2/1 betting splits.
The total has skyrocketed from an opening number of 42.5, as it now ranges between 44.5 and 45.5. That is not surprising given that the Giants are coming off their first loss since 2015 when scoring 37-plus points. The Over is also 11-1 in Mahomes’ last 12 road starts in night games, so I expect 45.5 to be the most commonly found number before kickoff.
🔢 Chiefs vs. Giants stats
Season stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
| Chiefs (0-2) | Statistic (per game) | Giants (0-2) |
|---|---|---|
| 19.0 | Points | 21.5 |
| 23.5 | Points allowed | 30.5 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
| 211.0 | Passing yards | 289.5 |
| 109.5 | Rushing yards | 79.0 |
| 199.0 | Passing yards allowed | 277.5 |
| 106.0 | Rushing yards allowed | 177.5 |
| 5.6 | Net yards per play | 5.8 |
🚑 Chiefs vs. Giants injury report
📺 How to watch Sunday Night Football
- When: Sunday, Sept. 21
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
- How to watch: NBC
❓ Sunday Night Football FAQs
Who plays on Sunday Night Football?
The Sunday Night Football matchup is between the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants.
When is Sunday Night Football?
The kickoff for Sunday Night Football is set for 8:20 p.m. ET, airing on NBC.
Who is favored to win Sunday Night Football?
The Chiefs are a -295 betting favorite to beat the Giants.
How do NFL odds work?
When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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