Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prediction & Odds for Thanksgiving: NFL Week 13 Betting Preview

I’m advocating playing the home underdog with my Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction for a cross-conference Thanksgiving clash at AT&T Stadium in Arlington Texas, at 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS).

Kansas City is trading widely as a 3-point betting favorite in a pivotal matchup between teams looking to climb into the playoff picture. In addition to my point-spread pick, I’m offering up a player prop recommendation as part of my Week 13 NFL predictions.

✅ Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13.

🏈 Thanksgiving preview & score prediction

Both the Chiefs and Cowboys overcame double-digit deficits in Week 12 to pull out season-saving home victories against first-place opponents. And both have near-identical records (Kansas City is 6-5; Dallas is 5-5-1). Translation: This is a difficult handicap.

In the end, though, I trust the Cowboys and their offense more than I do Kansas City. That's a somewhat crazy statement, considering Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is healthy. The fact is, the Cowboys have scored 24 points or more in eight of 10 games since Week 2. Conversely, since averaging 30.8 points during a 5-1 surge from Weeks 3-8, the Chiefs have only tallied 21, 19, and 20 points in regulation.

Cowboys barking as a ’dog

The Cowboys also have been profitable as an underdog this season, going 4-1 ATS. The only hiccup: a 44-22 road loss to the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, Kansas City hasn’t covered a single point spread in exactly a month and hasn’t covered a point spread on the road since a 22-9 win at the Giants on Sept. 21. The Chiefs’ record in their other four games away from Arrowhead Stadium? 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS - all as a favorite.

Grab the 3.5 points that BetMGM is offering on this Thanksgiving game. The -115 odds imply a 53.49% win probability. Bet $10 to win $8.70. 

While my prediction below likes the Cowboys to win outright, our Mike Spector's Week 13 NFL upsets don't include this one as one of his favorites.

Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Chiefs 23

🆚 Key matchup to watch on Thanksgiving

Patrick Mahomes vs. Cowboys' run defense

The Cowboys’ front seven has tightened things up over the past two weeks, limiting the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders to 90 total net rushing yards. But QB Jalen Hurts got loose for a team-high 33 yards last week, this after compiling 62 yards in the season opener.

In between, Dallas struggled to contain Green Bay QB Jordan Love (three carries, 28 yards); Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (eight carries, 35 yards); and New York Jets QB Justin Fields (seven carries, 26 yards). Even old men Russell Wilson and Geno Smith turned seven combined totes into 37 yards.

So my Thanksgiving prediction is that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will utilize his legs multiple times - be it on designed runs or improvisational escapes from the pocket. 

Keep in mind that four teams - the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Broncos - held Mahomes to 15 combined rushing yards. His rushing yards in his other seven starts? 303 - including at least 28 in each contest.

Best prop bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📊 Chiefs vs. Cowboys odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 13.

📈 Chiefs vs. Cowboys betting trends

🚑 Chiefs vs. Cowboys injury report

🌤️ Chiefs vs. Cowboys weather

With this game being played indoors at AT&T Stadium, the weather won't be a factor for Chiefs vs. Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.

📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Cowboys

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 27
• Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
• Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: CBS