Chiefs vs. Cowboys AI Picks: Thanksgiving Predictions & Stat Projections Today
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) and Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) both enter their Thanksgiving clash at 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS) in desperate need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive - and our Chiefs vs. Cowboys AI predictions expect the home underdogs to pull off a stunner today at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
We've trained the latest ChatGPT model to offer its exact score prediction and projected stat leaders for both teams, as well as its best prop bet for Chiefs vs. Cowboys. You can catch the rest of our (human) expert picks today with our NFL Thanksgiving predictions.
🤖 Chiefs vs. Cowboys AI predictions: Thanksgiving 2025
See all of our NFL AI predictions for Week 13 with projected scores for every game.
| Team | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| Cowboys | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
🔢 Cowboys projected stats
- Passing leader: Dak Prescott – 22/34, 264 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
- Rushing leader: Javonte Williams – 15 rushes, 67 yards, 1 TD
- Receiving leader: CeeDee Lamb – 8 receptions, 98 yards, 1 TD
🔢 Chiefs projected stats
- Passing leader: Patrick Mahomes – 26/39, 289 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing leader: Kareem Hunt – 12 rushes, 51 yards
- Receiving leader: Xavier Worthy – 6 receptions, 84 yards, 1 TD
🔮 Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction
Dallas gets the edge here because its current identity plays directly into Kansas City’s defensive weak points. The Cowboys can stretch the Chiefs horizontally with motion and layered spacing, which opens the door for Dak Prescott to operate in rhythm and for CeeDee Lamb to dictate coverage. With Javonte Williams providing physical early-down stability, Dallas can stay out of the high-variance third-and-long situations that Steve Spagnuolo’s pressure packages are built to exploit. The projection leans heavily on Dallas generating multiple long drives and finishing at a high rate inside the red zone — an area where the Cowboys have been sharp in recent weeks.
The Chiefs keep pace behind another strong Patrick Mahomes performance, but the Cowboys’ defense has quietly evolved into a unit that forces offenses into the least efficient parts of the field. Since trading for star defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, they've been more effective at stopping the run and tightened their intermediate zones, which matters against a Kansas City offense that now relies more on timing and spacing than explosive plays downfield. Mahomes will get his, especially with Xavier Worthy emerging as a reliable target, but the projection shows Kansas City trading sevens for threes too often in a narrow loss.
Score prediction: Cowboys 31, Chiefs 27
💡 More NFL predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and NFL Week 13 predictions for every game this week.
💰 Best Chiefs vs. Cowboys player prop bet
See all of our experts' NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds.
⬆️ Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing TDs
Prescott has consistently thrived in matchups where opposing defenses dare him to win from the pocket, and that’s exactly the profile Kansas City has shown in recent weeks. Spagnuolo’s defense is excellent at generating pressure and confusing quarterbacks pre-snap, but they’ve also given up an uptick in red-zone efficiency because of those same aggressive tendencies. Prescott’s projected stat line in our simulation — 22-of-34 for 264 yards and two touchdown passes — reflects the Cowboys’ strong matchup edge in the short and intermediate passing game. With Lamb controlling leverage and Jake Ferguson emerging as a high-usage option in tight spaces, Dallas profiles as a team built to convert through the air.
The game environment also favors multiple Prescott touchdowns. Our projection expects Dallas to sustain drives and finish with 31 total points, which creates multiple red-zone chances for scripted passing concepts. Inside the 10-yard line, the Cowboys have leaned more on quick timing routes, isolation looks for Lamb, and play-action off Williams' downhill presence — all of which increase Prescott’s TD probability. With game flow, matchup structure, and projected efficiency all aligned, Over 1.5 passing touchdowns sits comfortably within our model’s expectations.
Best bet: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing TDs (-137 via Caesars)
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💡 Chiefs vs. Cowboys picks
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction
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- Chiefs vs. Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer predictions
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- Chiefs vs. Cowboys AI predictions
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🦃 Thanksgiving expert picks
- Thanksgiving predictions
- Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Thanksgiving player props
- First touchdown scorer predictions
- Thanksgiving parlay
📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Cowboys: Thanksgiving 2025
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 27
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- TV: CBS
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