Chiefs vs. Broncos Player Props: Best Bets & TD Picks for NFL Week 11

A marquee AFC West matchup from Empower Field at Mile High features the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos, and my Chiefs vs. Broncos player props highlight the visitors' highest-profile players, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. 

I've also featured RJ Harvey's chances of punching it into the end zone. The Chiefs are the 3.5 or 4-point betting favorite, and the picks below are part of the NFL Week 11 predictions. Today's game starts at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS). 

✅ Chiefs vs. Broncos player prop bets

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 11.

💰 Best Chiefs vs. Broncos player props

⬆️ Patrick Mahomes player prop: Over 4.5 rush attempts (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's been a while since Mahomes hit the Over on this number. He last had at least five rush attempts at home against the Detroit Lions in Week 6. I'm backing the Over in Denver as he's facing a blitz-heavy, elite defense, which should require some scrambling and improvisation. 

The Broncos have 14 more sacks than any other team, and I expect Mahomes to pull the trigger on taking off quickly and with conviction. He hit the Over on this total in five of nine games thus far. Of the best sports betting sites, DraftKings and Caesars offer the best price (-113). 

Those odds imply a probability of 53.05%, and a winning $10 bet will profit $8.85.

⬆️ Travis Kelce player prop: Over 42.5 receiving yards (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With the second-best defensive DVOA and EPA per play, there aren't many chinks in the Broncos' defensive armor. There is some hope where Kelce's receiving props are concerned, though, as Denver ranks 16th in yards allowed to opposing tight ends (53.5 yards per game). 

That should bode well for Kelce, who hit the Over on this total in eight of nine games. The only exception came in Week 3 against the New York Giants.

I don't expect Kelce to have a massive outing, but the lowest total of 42.5 is manageable, even against the Broncos' top-tier defensive unit. Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel offer odds at the lowest total, with the former providing the best value. 

A winning $10 bet at the -108 odds will profit $9.26. 

6️⃣ Best Chiefs vs. Broncos touchdown scorer bet

🔥 RJ Harvey TD pick: Anytime TD scorer (+145) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With J.K. Dobbins' season-ending injury, RJ Harvey has been sprung into the spotlight. The Broncos running back is bound to see more of the ball, and his +145 odds represent a 40.82% implied probability, the highest of any Bronco.

Harvey was effective before the devastating injury to Dobbins, scoring five touchdowns in the previous five games. He only had one touchdown in the six games to start the season.

The Chiefs' defense is less effective at stopping the run in the end zone, conceding eight rushing touchdowns, which is tied for the ninth most. They've only allowed six scores through the air, tied for the third-fewest. 

Harvey's odds at the best sports betting apps range from +120 to +145, with bet365 providing the best value (+145). Those odds imply a 40.82% chance of hitting pay dirt, and a winning $10 bet will profit $14.50. 

📊 Chiefs vs. Broncos anytime touchdown scorer odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 11. 

📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Broncos

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• TV: CBS