Best Chiefs vs. Bills Player Props & TD Picks for NFL Week 9

My best Chiefs vs. Bills player props focus on Kareem Hunt, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes, ahead of Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Chiefs are 1.5-point road favorites.

The Bills’ rush defense has been one of the league’s worst all season, which is why Hunt should have a great game, and Mahomes may be able to hit a longshot prop. Meanwhile, Allen is being overvalued against one of the best pass defenses in football. For more on this game, visit our NFL predictions for Week 9.

✅ Chiefs vs. Bills player prop bets

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 9.

💰 Best Chiefs vs. Bills player props

⬆️ Kareem Hunt player prop: Over 45.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Despite holding the Panthers to 114 rushing yards last week, the Bills’ rush defense still ranks second-worst in the league, allowing 150.3 yards per game. The Bills are giving up 5.5 yards per carry, which is also second-worst in the league, and it means that Hunt will have a shot to hit this Over, even if he rushes 10 or fewer times for the eighth time this year.

However, Hunt should top his season high of 13 carries, as Isiah Pacheco has been ruled out for this game. Even with Pacheco, Hunt has two 40-yard rushing games this season. But on Sunday, he’ll be the lead back for a team that is very quietly averaging the ninth-most rushing yards per game this season.

FanDuel’s price implies a 53.27% chance that Hunt hits this Over. A $10 bet would profit $8.77.

💡 NFL expert picks for Week 9

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⬇️ Josh Allen player prop: Under 238.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Allen has topped this total just twice in seven games. He’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards three times, and he’s thrown for fewer than 215 five times. With how he’s played, it may be tempting to bet Under 232.5 at DraftKings or FanDuel, but the prices aren’t that much better than the -115 that BetMGM is offering for six more yards.

The Chiefs have the third-best pass defense, allowing just 177.8 passing yards per game. They’ve already proven themselves against the league’s best numerous times, holding Jared Goff to 203 yards and Lamar Jackson to just 147.

BetMGM’s price implies a 53.49% chance that this Under hits. A $10 bet would profit $8.70.

6️⃣ Best Chiefs vs. Bills touchdown scorer bet

🔥 Patrick Mahomes TD pick: Score a touchdown (+380) ⭐⭐⭐

The last time Mahomes faced the Bills, he ran 11 times for 43 yards and two touchdowns. That was in last year’s postseason, which followed a regular season in which Mahomes finished with 58 carries for 307 yards. Mahomes has been running much more frequently this season, as he already has 46 carries for 280 yards and four touchdowns.

The Bills have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, which is tied for the second-most in the league. DraftKings’ price of +380 implies a 20.83% chance that Mahomes scores, which doesn’t feel very accurate considering the matchup and the fact that Mahomes has scored in four of eight games this year.

A $10 bet at DraftKings would profit $38.

📊 Chiefs vs. Bills anytime touchdown scorer odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 9.

📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Bills

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 2
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• TV: CBS