Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: Wild Card Weekend
Sunday's playoff action concludes at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., and I'm making my best Chargers vs. Patriots prediction for the AFC Wild Card Round matchup.
I'm backing the favored Patriots to cover in my NFL playoff predictions, along with my top touchdown scorer pick. Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET on NBC, with the Patriots a 3.5-point home betting favorite.
🏈 Chargers vs. Patriots prediction: NFL Wild Card Weekend
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this postseason.
| Predictions | Best odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots -3.5 | -108 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 45.5 | -115 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Hunter Henry anytime touchdown | +165 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Chargers vs. Patriots best bet: Patriots -3.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
The Patriots have all the pieces to go on a deep playoff run, starting with NFL MVP contender Drake Maye.
The second-year quarterback led the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating while spearheading one of the most-efficient offenses
While I don't expect Maye to be at his best against a strong Chargers defense, he has the better weapons and coaching than his counterpart, Justin Herbert.
I'm placing my wager on the Patriots covering the 3.5-point spread at DraftKings, with -108 odds that offer the most value among the best sports betting sites.
Score prediction: Patriots 27, Chargers 23
🙌 Best Chargers vs. Patriots touchdown scorer prediction: Hunter Henry (+165) ⭐⭐⭐
See all of our NFL touchdown props for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
I'm choosing to avoid the Patriots' backfield entirely, given we don't know how TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson will split carries in the playoffs.
That's why I'm going with tight end Hunter Henry instead. He paced New England with seven receiving touchdowns this season and led all AFC players in red-zone targets.
I expect the former Charger to burn his old team by hitting pay dirt at FanDuel's +165 odds.
📊 Chargers vs. Patriots odds: NFL Wild Card Weekend
Our live Chargers vs. Patriots odds update in real time.
📈 Chargers vs. Patriots betting trends: NFL Wild Card Round
| Chargers | Statistic | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 11-6 | W-L record | 14-3 |
| 8-8-1 | ATS record | 11-5-1 |
| 6-10-1 | O/U record | 11-6 |
| 5.2 | Yards per play | 6.2 |
| 5.0 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | +3 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
🚑 Chargers vs. Patriots latest injuries
🌤️ Chargers vs. Patriots weather: Sunday, 8 p.m. ET
Follow our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts for every playoff game.
We're expecting cold conditions at Gillette Stadium, with the temperature projected to be around 33 degrees throughout the contest. There's also a 20% chance of snow, with wind gusts up to 19 mph.
📺 How to watch Chargers vs. Patriots: NFL Wild Card Weekend
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 11
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: NBC
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