Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

The Steelers are tied for the third-most TDs given up to tight ends (seven). They're also tied for the eighth-most yards given up to the position, and they've permitted the ninth-most receptions.

Lamar Jackson has zero passing touchdowns in his last three 3 games, his longest drought as a starter. He has also been off-target on an NFL-worst 28% of his passes over the last three weeks, while the team ranks 26th in Offensive Efficiency over that span.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers’ left wrist injury forced Pittsburgh to change its playbook completely last week, with him operating more out of the pistol for comfort on running plays. I have no confidence in the Steelers' offense this week after totaling just 10 first downs and 166 yards last week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are sliding, having lost three of their previous four. While Lamar Jackson and his Baltimore Ravens endured a blip against Cincy, they've won five of their previous six games. And Jackson hasn't yet reached his pre-injury peak. That should be coming soon. 

Is Baltimore fraudulent? Here's where we'll find out. The Steelers just got spanked by the Bills, and the Ravens lost by 18 to the lowly Bengals. Give me Lamar here.

Arguably the NFL's best rivalry loses a little luster this year with Aaron Rodgers facing injury concerns and the Ravens coming off an ugly home loss on Thursday night. I expect the mini-bye to help Baltimore get right and get after a familiar and vulnerable foe in a must-win game to stay atop the AFC North.

This is Rashid Shaheed's lowest receiving line of the year, a sign of his performance since being traded to Seattle. But after he played nearly 50% of the snaps last week, I'm buying low on a big-play receiver.

Bijan Robinson is expected to be more of a receiving threat against the Seahawks, who rank 29th in receiving yards allowed to opposing running backs.

If that's the case, I like his chances of notching a 15-yard catch for the 10th time this year.

The Seattle Seahawks are 9-3 ATS, with five of their previous six wins coming by at least eight points. The Atlanta Falcons are struggling mightily and having Kirk Cousins under center isn't helping. 

This spread just seems way too low for a Falcons team that just lost to the New York Jets. Seattle is one of the best teams, if not the best, in the NFL, so I'll ride that offense to put up a crooked number on a Falcons unit that cratered against Tyrod Taylor in the fourth quarter.

Sam Darnold has shown moments of weakness this year against top-flight defenses, but he's been money the rest of the season, and the Seahawks' defense is historically good. This one shouldn't be close.

Ten of the Tennessee Titans' 11 losses have come by at least six points, with six by at least 14. I believe the Cleveland Browns' defense will make life miserable for Cameron Ward. 

The Browns' offense ran into a rejuvenated 49ers defense last week, but they should face less resistance against the Titans. Meanwhile, this could get ugly for rookie Cam Ward - who has played well despite some hiccups - against Myles Garrett and this ferocious Cleveland front.

Waller is enjoying somewhat of a career resurgence in Miami, scoring four touchdowns this season while playing in just five games. You could also say he's fully healthy again, coming off a game against the Saints in which he led the Dolphins in receiving while also hauling in a season-long 34-yard catch. He gets the Jets in Week 14, a team that has had issues covering the tight end position, and a team he scored two touchdowns against back in September. Look for him to be a red-zone menace once more in New York.

Head coach Aaron Glenn is eliciting the best from his team despite their poor record. There is no quit in this collective, and I have much more confidence with Tyrod Taylor under center. In addition, it will be cold in East Rutherford, which does not suit the visitors. 

Don't look now, but Miami is officially "in the hunt" for a playoff spot and should at least be giving away 3.5 points here. I have them covering by a touchdown in this one.

I don't think either of these teams are particularly good, so I'm surprised to see the 'Fins favored on the road against a Jets team that simply hasn't quit even with its top stars shipped out at the deadline. When neither team is worth betting on, give me the points.

Otton hasn't scored this year, but he is second on the Buccaneers in receptions and yards. He had four catches for 40 yards in his first game against the Saints, and should have another good game against a defense that has allowed 20 passing touchdowns this season, five of which were to tight ends. 

Egbuka has only caught more than four passes in four games this season, and he had only three catches against the Saints earlier this year. However, I like him in this matchup, as he has at least eight targets in six consecutive games, and the Saints are allowing the league's eighth-highest completion percentage.

Against the league's fourth-worst rush defense last week, Neal ran for just 47 yards on 14 carries. The Buccaneers rank sixth in rush defense, and the first time these two teams met, the Saints' leading rusher was Alvin Kamara with just 21 yards.

I am banking on a big bounce-back from Egbuka, who still has 10 games with at least seven targets (tied for the most among wide receivers). He faces a Saints defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards per target to wide receivers. And since Week 9, the Saints have allowed the second-highest completion percentage to perimeter wideouts.

Tampa Bay beat the Saints 23-3 in the Big Easy in Week 8. In addition, four of the Saints' five road losses have come by at least 12 points, with an average margin of defeat of 20 points. 

Remember when the Buccaneers were the hottest team in the NFC? That feels like a century ago amid injuries to virtually every key piece on offense. We don't even know if Baker Mayfield will play or what condition he'll be in if he does - I like the Saints to keep it close.

Tyler Warren scored in four consecutive contests from Weeks 4-7. A four-game dry spell followed, but he got back in the end zone last week against the Texans.

On Sunday, Warren will face a Jaguars’ defense that has allowed 22 passing touchdowns — with tight ends tallying eight of those scores.

Jonathan Taylor rushed for 45, 58 and 85 yards in his last three games on U.S. soil. Yes, he went off for 284 yards  against Atlanta in Berlin, but the Falcons rank 25th in the NFL in run defense.

Jacksonville? It allows an NFL-low 82.4 yards per game. The highwater rushing mark by an opposing player versus the Jags this year: 63 yards.

Trevor Lawrence has thrown an interception in nine of 12 games, tossing 11 picks in all — more than any quarterback not named Geno Smith or Tua Tagovailoa.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis is tied for fourth in the NFL with a dozen INTs, snatching at least one in nine contests. The Colts also have picked off Lawrence each of the last three times they faced him.

Jacksonville has won four of the previous five games, while the Indianapolis Colts have lost three of the last four. Daniel Jones has been one of the league's worst quarterbacks in the fourth quarter recently, which should bode well for the hosts. 

Indianapolis went 7-1 over its first eight games while averaging 33.8 points per game and committing just four total turnovers. However, the Colts have now lost three of their last four while averaging 21.8 points and committing eight total turnovers in that span.

The news that quarterback Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured fibula is not inspiring, especially since the team is coming off its second-lowest yards total and third-lowest yards per play average of the season in a home loss to Houston.

Desperation is starting to set in for the Colts, who went from a No. 1 seed to second place in the AFC West after losing three of their last four. Things won't get easier against a red-hot Jaguars team that deserves to be favored at home.

Washington has allowed an NFL-worst 8.2 yards per attempt this season and is in the bottom six in yards allowed to wide receivers.

While Jefferson’s production may be down, he still has 12 games with six-plus targets (most among wide receivers), and the Commanders have allowed the second-most yards per target to the position.

Jayden Daniels has a chance of playing in Week 14, but I don't think he'll win the race against time. Regardless of who lines up under center, I'm backing the Commanders. Despite Marcus Mariota losing five of six starts, I have more faith in him than J.J. McCarthy. 

Since McCarthy's Week 1 win in Chicago, the Vikings have averaged 15 points per game with him under center. The de facto rookie has thrown two TDs and six interceptions in his previous three starts.

Is there a single competent quarterback option on the Vikings' roster? There's a chance Jayden Daniels returns for this matchup, too, so I'd buy Commanders stock before we get too close to kickoff.

Burrow didn't miss a beat last week, throwing for 261 yards against the Baltimore Ravens in a blowout win against a division rival. He now gets a more formidable pass defense in the Buffalo Bills, but rest assured, there will be points scored in this one. With the total projection sitting at 53.5, and with the Bengals' secondary still in shambles, we'll likely see Burrow drop back close to 45 times in this one. Ride him as part of our best NFL player props for Week 14.

Brown only has three touchdowns this season, but he's about to face a Bills defense that has allowed a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns. Additionally, Brown recorded 22 touches last week in Joe Burrow's first game since returning from injury, and he caught seven passes.

Chase has at least 90 yards in six of his last seven games, but the Bills have the top-ranked pass defense in the NFL. Additionally, with the Bills ranking 30th against the run, I expect the Bengals to run more than usual, reducing Chase's opportunities.

Cook has rushed for at least 116 yards in back-to-back games, and he has seven 100-yard games this season. The Bengals rank 31st in rush defense, and they're allowing 5.1 yards per carry.

We've seen this movie before, with Joe Burrow returning to the lineup and orchestrating a late-season Cincy surge. It probably won't be enough in the end, but I reckon they keep things relatively tight against the favored Buffalo Bills. 

In Joe Burrow’s first game back under center for Cincinnati, the Bengals completed the fifth-largest outright upset as seven-point underdogs in Thanksgiving history.

Burrow snapped a five-game losing streak as an underdog, and improved to 20-11 ATS overall in that role. He is also now a profitable 10-10-1 SU and 18-3 ATS as an underdog of three or more points covering those by more than six points per game.

While the Bills' pass defense has been great this season, Burrow's Bengals are riding a high. The Bengals' secondary is also among the worst in the league, leaving Burrow no choice but to air it out. Expect points early and often.

As tempting as it is to bet Joe Burrow to lead the Bengals to a second straight win, the Bills are rounding into form right now and should be able to run all over a Cincinnati defense that I still don't trust to stop an offense that is operating in sync.

Harvey has scored in five games this season, recording multiple touchdowns twice. The Raiders have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for the fifth-most in the league, and Harvey is dangerous both on the ground and through the air, scoring four times each way.

Smith has four games without a touchdown pass this season. The Broncos have allowed the fewest touchdown passes (11), and they've held six quarterbacks without a touchdown pass.

Sutton had just three catches for 24 yards the first time he faced the Raiders, but Bo Nix also threw for a season-low 150 yards in that game. Sutton is averaging 14.2 yards per reception, and he has at least one catch of 20 yards in nine games.

Can the Denver Broncos finally cover the spread? They came within a play of doing so last week against the Washington Commanders, but couldn't keep scary Terry out of the end zone. They didn't cover the last time they played Las Vegas, but I'm banking on the Week 14 game being different. 

Even with a healthier roster, the Broncos nearly suffered the ultimate letdown on Sunday night before pulling off the narrow win. They shouldn't have any issue bouncing back against a lifeless Raiders team that may not win another game under Pete Carroll.

Watson has scored three times in his past three games and faces a Bears defense that has allowed 16 receiving TDs to wide receivers this year.

Burden's role is increasing, as he's logged 5+ targets in three straight games. The Packers have allowed 10 TDs to wide receivers this season.

Colston Loveland has three touchdowns since the start of November. The Packers have allowed five scores to tight ends this year.

Packers wide receiver Christian Watson, who missed the first six games of the season, has flipped the switch the last three weeks, catching 13 passes and scoring his first three touchdowns.

Facing a Chicago secondary that has allowed 24 passing TDs this year, I’m banking on Watson finding the end zone for a fourth time Sunday afternoon.

With Rome Odunze out with an injury Sunday, I expect the Packers’ defense to shift its focus to DJ Moore — and in response, I expect Bears quarterback Caleb Williams to shift his focus to rookie wideout Luther Burden III.

Burden has cleared his receiving yards prop in six of his last nine starts, including three of the last four.

Jordan Love has eclipsed his completions projection just three times in 12 games, and he’s completed fewer than 20 passes in eight of those contests.

In the last three weeks, the Packers’ quarterback managed just 13, 14 and 18 completions against the Giants, Vikings and Lions, respectively. 

D’Andre Swift rushed for at least 80 yards in five of his last seven starts, including 125 yards in Chicago’s Week 13 upset of the Eagles in Philadelphia.

This week, Swift faces a solid Packers run defense, but one that has let at least one opposing tailback top 55 yards in six of the last seven games.

The Bears have won a bunch of nail-biters during their 9-1 hot streak, but the NFL isn’t a beauty pageant. Nor do you get extra credit for blowout victories.

Keep in mind, too, that Chicago is 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog since Week 3. Conversely, Green Bay has covered just twice in its last eight games as a favorite. Take the points.

Chicago is on a five-game winning streak for the first time since 2018, but oddsmakers are still skeptical, considering its passing game ranks 31st in completion percentage and dead-last in off-target percentage.

Meanwhile, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has impressive splits when pressured compared to when he isn't under pressure, which should play well in this matchup.

Only three of the previous 10 Bears' games were decided by more than five points, both of which ended in victory. Chicago is on a five-game winning streak, and I don't see the Green Bay Packers - who've struggled offensively at home recently - breaking it open. 

At what point is it time to start taking this Bears run seriously? I've been slow to join the parade, but it seems like Ben Johnson's offense is taking shape around Caleb Williams' strengths, and the defense is making enough plays in key spots to keep seemingly every game close. I expect more of the same against a familiar rival.

Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has already stated he wants to keep Kyren Williams fresh for the stretch run, giving Corum an open runway to find the end zone for us in Week 14. 

Davante Adams has racked up 10 of his league-leading 14 touchdown receptions before halftime — and all in the last 10 games.

During that span, the Rams’ wide receiver has failed to reach the end zone in the opening half just three times: twice against San Francisco and once against New Orleans.

Arizona’s Jacoby Brissett has recorded just one win in seven starts since taking over for the injured Kyler Murray (part of the Cardinals’ ongoing 1-9 slump). But the veteran QB posted two passing touchdowns in six of the seven games.

Meanwhile, two mediocre quarterbacks — Bryce Young and Mac Jones — each tossed three TDs against the Rams in the last four weeks.

Matthew Stafford has thrown for fewer than 250 yards in half of the Rams’ 12 games (including fewer than 200 yards four times). He’s also failed to eclipse 230 yards in his last four games against Arizona.

Another reason I love this play: Only Trevor Lawrence (256 yards) and Dak Prescott (250) have topped 212 yards versus the Cardinals since Week 6 (seven total games).

Matthew Stafford still leads the NFL with 32 passing touchdowns, while the Cardinals have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the last four weeks. Stafford has also thrown at least three touchdown passes in two of the last four games against Arizona. 

For the most part, the Arizona Cardinals have been competitive this season. Of their previous nine losses, only two came by more than four points. 

It's hard to explain what went wrong for the Rams in last week's stunning loss to the Panthers - and it's hard for me to fully dismiss it, either. The Cardinals have shown flashes this year and are too talented to roll over in a tricky spot for the visitors.

Chubb has scored three times this season. While the Chiefs rank sixth in passing touchdowns allowed, they're just 15th in rushing scores allowed. Chubb provides much more value to score than his teammate, Woody Marks.

Pacheco returned to the field for the first time since Week 8 last week, but he rushed for just 16 yards. The Texans are allowing just 91.7 rushing yards per game, and with Kareem Hunt taking carries from Pacheco, Pacheco won't get enough attempts in this game.

Kelce has fewer than 48.5 yards in five games this season. Since Rashee Rice's return, he's been targeted six or fewer times in four of six games, while Rice has at least nine targets in five games during that span. And the Texans have the fourth-ranked pass defense.

Houston’s fierce pass rush and Kansas City’s overall lack of running success should lead to Mahomes using his legs more.

Houston allows a league-high 6.4 yards per carry to quarterbacks and the second-most explosive runs. Meanwhile, no quarterback has more explosive runs than Mahomes, so it may only take one big scramble to surpass this projected total.

Kansas City’s defense has allowed an NFL-best minus-33 yards after the catch over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That plays exceptionally well in this matchup against a Texans offense that has the fourth-lowest rate of its passing yards coming from yards after the catch.

The Texans are tied as the most profitable team to the Under this season, cashing it in nine of their 12 games.

I have a ton of faith in the Houston Texans' game-wrecking defense that is arguably the best in the league. The Kansas City Chiefs have been plagued by inconsistency, while the Texans are on a roll, winning four in a row.