Buccaneers vs. Bills Player Props: Best Bets & TD Picks for NFL Week 11

With a loaded NFL slate on tap this weekend, we’re here to dive into the best Buccaneers vs. Bills player props. The action is scheduled for Sunday, Nov. 16 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS) at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. 

The Bills are a 6-point betting favorite for this home matchup following their surprising loss to the Dolphins last week. Make sure to check out the rest of our NFL Week 11 predictions so that you don’t miss out on any winning plays!

✅ Buccaneers vs. Bills player prop bets

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 11.

💰 Best Buccaneers vs. Bills player props

⬇️ Baker Mayfield player prop: Under 206.5 passing yards (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Fading Baker Mayfield as a passer with a line this low feels wrong, but this may be good to 175. Mayfield heads into Highmark Stadium with precipitation and 23 mph wind gusts in the forecast. He will have to take on a tough Buffalo defense looking to bounce back after last week’s brutal loss, and he won’t have the protection of star left guard Ben Bredeson, who ranks 10th among all interior offensive linemen in pass-block win rate.

While Buffalo’s defense is banged up, it’s gotten healthier after the Miami game, and this unit’s results speak for themselves. The Bills rank fourth in pressure rate (28.1%) despite blitzing at a below-average rate (21.4%). They also rank third in passing yards allowed per game to quarterbacks (187.2). Mayfield will struggle to generate chunk plays from the pocket, especially with so many of his receiving weapons on the shelf. 

This prop ranges from 203.5 to 206.5. You’ll find the best deal at DraftKings, where the Under 206.5 will cost you only -112 (52.8%), and a $10 bet will earn you an $8.93 profit.

⬆️ Khalil Shakir player prop: Over 41.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While the conditions don’t look good for either passing offense, I trust Khalil Shakir to go Over his receiving yardage prop. Shakir specializes in generating yards after the catch. His average depth of target (aDOT) is a short 4.2 yards, which, while a red flag in most situations, is actually an asset given the conditions forecasted for Sunday’s game. The Bills will probably lean on screens and rushing plays to compensate for bad weather.

Once he has the ball in his hands, Shakir is electric. He ranks 17th among all players – and second among all wide receivers – in yards after the catch per reception (8). He also ranks sixth among all players in total yards generated after the catch (360). With Tampa Bay’s defense allowing a shaky 160 receiving yards per contest, I have faith in Shakir’s ability to produce despite the conditions forecasted for Sunday. 

Let’s buy Shakir for Over 41.5 receiving yards, a line you’ll only find at FanDuel, with most books – including sharp offshores – listing it at 43.5. Lock this one in for -114 (53.3%) to score a $8.77 profit on a $10 bet.

6️⃣ Best Buccaneers vs. Bills touchdown scorer bet

🔥 Josh Allen TD pick: anytime touchdown scorer (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

While laying -110 (52.4%) for an anytime touchdown scorer prop may not be as fun as backing a long shot, this is the perfect situation for Allen to find the end zone. Bad weather means Buffalo should keep the ball on the ground, especially in goal-to-go situations. Allen leads the Bills with nine carries inside the 10-yard line, outpacing running back James Cook, and has scored on six of those touches.

Buffalo’s offensive line ranks an impressive second in run-block win rate (75%), which should give Allen a leg up versus Tampa Bay’s 17th-ranked defensive line by run-stop win rate (30%). I’m surprised to see this line so close to even with Allen having four rushing scores over his last three games, but I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Back him to find paydirt on DraftKings. 

📊 Buccaneers vs. Bills anytime touchdown scorer odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 11.

📺 How to watch Buccaneers vs. Bills

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• TV: CBS