Browns vs. Ravens Picks, Predictions Week 7: Can Baltimore Finally Cover at Home?
The Baltimore Ravens enter Week 7 with a one-game lead over the Cleveland Browns in the AFC North. Our top NFL picks explore whether the Ravens can cover the spread at home against the Browns.
Baltimore had won four straight games in this head-to-head rivalry series before Cleveland's 24-22 home win last December.
The Ravens look to get back on track after a 24-20 road loss at the New York Giants last week. The Browns have dropped three straight games, including last week's 38-15 setback against the New England Patriots on home field.
Check out all our top NFL picks for Week 7, as well as our best bets!
Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 7 matchup between the Browns and Ravens (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Browns vs. Ravens Game Info
Date/Time: Sunday, Oct. 23, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Weather: 60 degrees, 1% Precipitation, 7-mph
winds
Browns vs. Ravens Odds
Browns vs. Ravens Odds Analysis
Baltimore has drawn 78% of the handle on 81% of the tickets on the spread. As such, the consensus opening line of Ravens -6 has grown to -6.5 as of Sunday morning.
The Over/Under has grown from 44.5 to 46 through the week with 80% of the tickets but a more modest 56% of the handle on the Over.
Browns vs. Ravens Picks
- Spread: Browns +6.5 (-106 via FanDuel)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Prop bet: Nick Chubb Over 71.5 rushing yards (-120 via DraftKings)
Browns vs. Ravens ATS Pick
Browns +6.5 (-106) ★★★
Baltimore has allowed 371.5 yards of total offense per game this season (25th in the NFL), the bulk of which has been from its 28th-ranked passing defense. Teams haven’t been running on Baltimore much for that reason; they probably should try it, though.
On a yards-per-attempt basis, the Ravens still allow 4.5 per carry on the year (18th in NFL). That’ll be plenty exploitable for a Browns offense that wants to batter teams with Chubb.
Lamar Jackson shouldn’t have a lot of trouble moving the ball against a Cleveland defense ranked 23rd in total defense, but the Ravens are one of three teams without a cover at home this season (0-2-1).
I’m not sure their defense will do enough to get them one in what should prove to be a tight divisional matchup.
Browns vs. Ravens O/U Pick
Over 45.5 (-110) ★★★★★
Typically, these AFC North battles are defensive struggles. That's what happened when the Bengals and Ravens hooked up in a 19-17 slog a couple of weeks ago. But I like the offenses to seize the day in this one given the trends for both sides.
The Browns have one of the best ground-game churners in the NFL, as Chubb is having a truly special season. Cleveland leads the NFL in rushing, averaging 172 yards per game. The Ravens are 24th in rush DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. The Browns average 24.7 points per game and should approach that mark in a favorable matchup for its run game.
Averaging 26.3 points per game (fifth in NFL), the Ravens face a Browns team that ranks 31st in total DVOA on defense. Jackson should get Rashod Bateman back to stretch the field this week, a key cog in the scheme the Ravens want to run. Mark Andrews is also trending toward suiting up, though running back J.K. Dobbins will miss the contest.
Browns vs. Ravens Prop Pick
Chubb Over 71.5 rushing yards (-120) ★★★★
Is this real? I had to refresh the browser to make sure this number was right.
Chubb has failed to clear this yardage total only once in 2022, and that came last week when he tallied 56 rushing yards against the Patriots. New England won that game 37-15. Running wasn’t much of an option for Cleveland late. Additionally, the Pats are solid against the run, as they rank 14th in rush DVOA.
Chubb's next-lowest yardage total of the season was 87 against the Jets. In his other four games, he’s sailed well beyond 100 rushing yards each time.
Where to Bet on Browns-Ravens Picks
Browns-Ravens picks made 10/21/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET
