Bills vs. Texans Prediction: Thursday Night Football Picks & TNF Odds
My Bills vs. Texans prediction for Thursday Night Football features a top-tier signal-caller facing an opponent on a two-game winning streak, despite being without its starter under center.
The matchup from NRG Stadium in Houston begins at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video), with the Bills listed as a 6-point betting favorite. I expect a C.J. Stroud-less Texans squad to hang around on the strength of its defense as part of our NFL predictions for Week 12.
✅ Bills vs. Texans prediction & expert picks
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 12.
💵 Best Bills vs. Texans bets
- Game prediction: Texans +6 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 43.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best prop bet: Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-114 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🏈 Thursday Night Football preview & score prediction
While the Texans will miss Stroud, Davis Mills has performed admirably in his absence, winning both starts. As long as Mills doesn't turn the ball over at an alarming rate, Houston's defense should take care of the rest.
In five games this season at NRG Stadium, Houston has won three of five. Its two losses, to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos, were by a combined four points.
Their defense is the primary reason, ranking best in EPA per play and third-best in DVOA. Defensive coordinator Matt Burke's unit allows the fewest points per game (16.4) and the sixth-fewest at home (16.4). It also concedes the fewest yards per game (258.1).
Can Houston's defense frustrate Josh Allen?
Last season, the Texans were one of the few teams to successfully frustrate MVP odds contender Josh Allen, who arguably had his worst game.
While I expect one of the league's most clutch QBs to be more productive than his 131 passing and five rushing yards from that 23-20 loss, I'm putting my money on Houston's relentless stop unit keeping it competitive.
Four of the five best sports betting sites offer the Texans at +6, with BetMGM's -110 odds the best value. A winning $10 bet at those odds will profit $9.09.
Score prediction: Bills 21, Texans 17
Meanwhile, Corey Scott expects Allen to find the end zone in his anytime TD scorer predictions for TNF.
💡 More Week 12 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 12.
🆚 Key matchup to watch on TNF
Josh Allen vs. Texans' defense
Houston's defense doesn't pressure or hurry the quarterback as often as teams like Minnesota. Then again, who does? However, it does a masterful job in coverage and in negating downfield options, allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.4).
And it has the third-best unit at stopping the run, according to DVOA.
With the prospective lack of options at Allen's disposal, I expect him to take matters into his own legs. Houston has been susceptible, particularly late in games, to preventing the opposing quarterback from taking off. It allowed at least 33 rushing yards to the opposing quarterback in the previous three games, which Allen will be well aware of.
He hit the Over on this total in five games thus far, including last week against Tampa Bay. If he does it again, a winning $10 bet will profit $8.77.
Our Matt Jacob offers three more winning plays, including fading Allen, in his Bills vs. Texans player props.
Best prop bet: Josh Over 31.5 rushing yards (-114 via DraftKings)
For more bets on this game, check out Brenden Schaeffer's Bills vs. Texans SGP at +525 odds.
📊 Bills vs. Texans odds
See live NFL odds for every game in Week 12.
🔍️ Find the best odds for every bet
Search the best NFL player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.
📈 Bills vs. Texans betting trends
| Bills | Statistic | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L record | 5-5 |
| 5-5 | ATS record | 4-6 |
| 5-5 | O/U record | 3-6-1 |
| 6.2 | Yards per play | 5.1 |
| 5.6 | Yards allowed per play | 4.6 |
| +0.1 | Turnover margin | +0.7 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| W, 44-32 Buccaneers | Previous result | W, 16-13 vs. Titans |
🎟️ Bills vs. Texans betting insights
Here are the props at BetMGM that are getting 99% of the money in the hours before kickoff, via John Ewing. The Bills are receiving 84% of the money to cover a spread that's moved from -6 to -5.5.
- Woody Marks Over 64.5 rushing yards
- Nico Collins Over 5.5 receptions
- James Cook Over 14.5 receiving yards
- Jayden Higgins Over 2.5 receptions
🚑 Bills vs. Texans injury report
🌤️ Bills vs. Texans weather
The weather won't be a factor for Thursday's Bills vs. Texans game as NRG Stadium in Houston has a retractable roof.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
💡 More TNF predictions
- Bills vs. Texans prediction
- Bills vs. Texans player props
- Bills vs. Texans same-game parlay
- Josh Allen player prop bets
- Davis Mills player prop bets
- Bills vs. Texans anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Bills vs. Texans first touchdown scorer predictions
- Bills vs. Texans AI predictions
- Bills vs. Texans best bets
📺 How to watch Thursday Night Football: Bills vs. Texans
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 20
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium (Houston)
- TV: Prime Video
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