Bills vs. Patriots Prediction & Odds: NFL Week 15 Betting Preview

The New England Patriots will clinch the AFC East with a win for the first time in the post-Tom Brady era, which serves as the backdrop for my Bills vs. Patriots prediction. Kickoff for this divisional battle from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS).

Buffalo is a 1-point betting favorite, and I am laying the point while expecting the Bills to end New England’s 10-game winning streak. My NFL Week 15 predictions also back a five-star wager on my favorite player prop, expecting the Under on a marquee wideout’s receiving yards to cash.

Bills vs. Patriots predictions

Bills vs. Patriots best bet & score prediction

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 15.

Bills -1 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

New England’s 23-20 Week 5 road victory over Buffalo was made possible by a plus-two turnover margin, which helped the Patriots overcome four fewer first downs and losing the time of possession battle by nine minutes. 

But Buffalo looked like the better team for much of that game, and I do not expect it to let the Patriots end their five-year run as division champions in a head-to-head matchup.

Patriots run defense is regressing

In the first meeting, New England bottled James Cook up for 49 rushing yards and a 3.3 yards per attempt average. That was amid a span of elite run defense through the first nine weeks, in which the Patriots held opponents to 75.4 rushing yards per game, 3.6 yards per rush, and had a 30% run stop percentage. 

In Weeks 10-14, New England’s run defense has regressed, allowing 121.0 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per rush, with a 14% run stop percentage. Overall, the Patriots rank 27th, allowing 4.8 yards per rush, which is asking for trouble against a balanced Bills offense.

If New England sells out to stop the run, Buffalo can build off the confidence of its newfound success with play-action. Last week, the Bills ran play action a season-high 17 times, while producing season-highs in yards (159) and 10-yard plays (seven) on such throws, and tying for a season-high with two touchdowns.

With Buffalo’s spread as high as -1.5, I am taking advantage of the better number at the standard -110 juice at Caesars. At 52.38% implied odds, a $10 winning wager would bet $9.09 in profits if the Bills cover.

Score prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 27

Bills vs. Patriots matchup to watch

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Stefon Diggs vs. Christian Benford

In the first matchup between these teams, Stefon Diggs played with a chip on his shoulder in his former stadium. He finished with 10 receptions for 146 yards in the win. 

However, Diggs has regressed of late, clearing 50-plus receiving yards in just one of the previous six games.

The biggest reason for making this a confident five-star play is the emergence of Bills cornerback Christian Benford. Benford covered Diggs on just five routes in the first meeting. But since Week 6, he has allowed the lowest passer rating in the NFL, while lining up against several elite wide receivers (Drake London, Nico Collins, Ja’Marr Chase, Emeka Ebguka, DK Metcalf, etc.).

Buffalo has also allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers since Week 10. But this is only a play if Benford is active, as he was seen wearing a walking boot after Thursday’s practice to protect a toe injury.

The best number is at DraftKings, as Diggs’ O/U is as low as 49.5 yards at the opposite end of the market.

Best prop bet: Stefon Diggs Under 52.5 receiving yards (-113 via DraftKings)

Bills vs. Patriots odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 15.

Bills vs. Patriots betting trends

Bills vs. Patriots injury report

Bills vs. Patriots weather

Temperatures will reach a high of 30 degrees in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. There is a 40% chance of snow, but if there is precipitation, accumulations will be less than one inch.

Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.

How to watch Bills vs. Patriots

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 14
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• TV: CBS