Bills vs. Patriots Prediction & Odds Today: NFL Week 15 Betting Preview
I'm backing Buffalo in my Bills vs Patriots prediction for today's game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
The Bills are the 1-point betting favorite despite New England entering on a 10-game winning streak. The Bills can cut the deficit atop the AFC East to one game with a victory. The picks below are part of our NFL Week 15 predictions, which also feature a five-star wager on my favorite player prop.
🏈 Bills vs. Patriots prediction
Don't miss the rest of our NFL picks for every game this season.
Bills -1 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
New England’s 23-20 road victory over Buffalo in Week 5 was made possible by a plus-two turnover margin, which helped the Patriots overcome four fewer first downs and losing the time of possession battle by nine minutes.
But Buffalo looked like the better team for much of that game, and I do not expect it to let the Patriots end their five-year run as division champions in a head-to-head matchup.
Patriots run defense is regressing
In the first meeting, New England bottled James Cook up for 49 rushing yards and a 3.3 yards per attempt average. That was amid a span of elite run defense through the first nine weeks, in which the Patriots held opponents to 75.4 rushing yards per game, 3.6 yards per rush, and had a 30% run stop percentage.
In Weeks 10-14, New England’s run defense has regressed, allowing 121.0 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per rush, with a 14% run stop percentage. Overall, the Patriots rank 27th, allowing 4.8 yards per rush, which is asking for trouble against a balanced Bills offense.
If New England sells out to stop the run, Buffalo can build off the confidence of its newfound success with play-action. Last week, the Bills ran play action a season-high 17 times, while producing season-highs in yards (159) and 10-yard plays (seven) on such throws, and tying for a season-high with two touchdowns.
With Buffalo’s spread as high as -1.5, I am taking advantage of the better number at the standard -110 juice at Caesars. At 52.38% implied odds, a $10 winning wager would bet $9.09 in profits if the Bills cover.
The likely treacherous conditions on Sunday are another factor, as outlined in our Bills vs. Patriots weather report.
Score prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 27
💡 More Week 15 predictions
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🔥 Bills vs. Patriots player prop bet
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Stefon Diggs Under 52.5 receiving yards (-113)
In the first matchup between these teams, Stefon Diggs played with a chip on his shoulder in his former stadium. He finished with 10 receptions for 146 yards in the win.
However, Diggs has regressed of late, clearing 50-plus receiving yards in just one of the previous six games.
The biggest reason for making this a confident five-star play is the emergence of Bills cornerback Christian Benford. Benford covered Diggs on just five routes in the first meeting. But since Week 6, he has allowed the lowest passer rating in the NFL, while lining up against several elite wide receivers (Drake London, Nico Collins, Ja’Marr Chase, Emeka Ebguka, DK Metcalf, etc.).
Buffalo has also allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers since Week 10. But this is only a play if Benford is active, as he was seen wearing a walking boot after Thursday’s practice to protect a toe injury.
The best number is at DraftKings, as Diggs’ O/U is as low as 49.5 yards at the opposite end of the market. For more picks on this matchup, check out Philip Wood's Bills vs. Patriots player props. Esten McLaren also features Diggs with his Bills vs. Patriots anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
📊 Live Bills vs. Patriots odds
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📈 Bills vs. Patriots betting trends
| Bills | Statistic | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 9-4 | W-L record | 11-2 |
| 6-7 | ATS record | 9-4 |
| 6-7 | O/U record | 7-6 |
| 6.32 | Yards per play | 6.17 |
| 5.65 | Yards allowed per play | 5.44 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
| W, 39-34 vs. Bengals | Previous result | W, 33-15 vs. Giants |
🚑 Bills vs. Patriots injury report
☀️ Bills vs. Patriots weather
Temperatures will reach a high of 30 degrees in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. There is a 40% chance of snow, but if there is precipitation, accumulations will be less than one inch.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
📺 How to watch Bills vs. Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 14
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: CBS
NFL expert picks for Week 15
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