Bills vs. Patriots Player Props: Best Bets & TD Picks for NFL Week 15

My best Bills vs. Patriots player props focus on TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Dalton Kincaid. The Bils are a 1.5-point road betting favorite ahead of kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., at 1 p.m. ET (CBS).

My NFL Week 15 predictions investigate whether the Bills’ struggling rush defense shuts down the Patriots’ rushing attack for the second time this season, or will Henderson and Stevenson each have big days? And is Kincaid in for another big game against the Patriots after a 108-yard performance earlier this year?

🏈 Bills vs. Patriots player prop bets

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 15.

💰Best Bills vs. Patriots player props

Search the best NFL player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ TreVeyon Henderson player prop: Over 45.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Last week, Henderson received one fewer carry than Rhamondre Stevenson, but he was the much more effective back. He rushed for 67 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, while Stevenson had just 40 yards and averaged 3.3.

Henderson has rushed for at least 55 yards in six consecutive games, three of which also included Stevenson. Earlier this season, when the Patriots faced the Bills, Henderson had only six carries but averaged 4.0 yards per carry, while Stevenson averaged just 2.0.

The Bills are allowing 135.2 yards per game (5th-worst) and 5.1 yards per carry (4th-worst). Even if Stevenson cuts into Henderson’s carries, getting this total this low in this matchup is too good to pass up. FanDuel’s price of -114 implies a 53.27% chance that the Over hits. A $10 bet would profit $8.77.

⬆️ Dalton Kincaid player prop: Over 3.5 receptions (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After missing three games, Kincaid returned last week to catch four of five targets for 41 yards and one touchdown. He now has at least four receptions in six of his nine games this season.

The Patriots have allowed 79 receptions to tight ends, which is tied for the seventh-most in the league. When Kincaid faced them earlier this season, he caught all six of his targets for 108 yards. The Patriots may adjust their defensive plan to shut down Kincaid, but despite his missing four games, he’s still third on the Bills in receptions and targets.

Some sportsbooks have this Over priced as high as -107. BetMGM’s price of +105 implies a 48.78% chance that this Ovr hits. A $10 bet would profit $10.50.

6️⃣ Best Bills vs. Patriots touchdown scorer bet

🔥 Rhamondre Stevenson TD pick: Score a touchdown (+250) ⭐⭐⭐

Stevenson has only scored three touchdowns this season, but two of those came against the Bills. The Bills have allowed 19 rushing touchdowns, which is the most in the league. 

Though Henderson is only projected to have seven more rushing yards than Stevenson according to most of the best sports betting sites, the price for Henderson to score is -107 or worse at all of them. Considering that price, Stevenson at +250 is the most valuable of all the Bills vs. Patriots player props, especially when you consider that Henderson only has three more touchdowns than Stevenson despite playing three more games.

The bet365 price of +250 implies a 28.57% chance that Stevenson scores. A $10 bet would profit $25.

📊 Bills vs. Patriots anytime touchdown scorer odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 15.

📺 How to watch Bills vs. Patriots

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 14
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• TV: CBS