Bills vs. Patriots Prediction & Opening Odds: NFL Week 15
My early Bills vs. Patriots prediction examines the opening odds for this all-important AFC East matchup, as New England can clinch the division with a win this week. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, airing on CBS.
My early picks as part of my NFL predictions for Week 15 back the Bills as a 1-point betting favorite, forcing New England to have to wait to end Buffalo’s five-year reign as AFC East champions.
Early Bills vs. Patriots prediction & betting preview
Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL picks for Week 15.
Bills -1 (-109) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The schedule makers have not been all that kind to the Bills lately, as this is the second straight opponent they are facing on extended rest. But Josh Allen has beaten several of the sport’s best quarterbacks this season (Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield), and I expect him to get revenge on NFL MVP odds contender Drake Maye for the Week 5 home loss.
Allen has historically performed much better from an ATS perspective against good defenses than poor ones. Against defenses that allow 28-plus points per game, Allen is 8-11-1 in 20 starts after last week’s non-cover against the Bengals. But against defenses that allow fewer than 20 points, like New England, Allen is 27-9-1 ATS in his career.
Caesars’ -109 odds to lay the -1 with the road favorites carry a 52.15% implied probability, and would net $9.17 on a winning $10 wager.
💡 More Week 15 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 15.
Live Bills vs. Patriots odds: Week 15
See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 15.
Bills vs. Patriots opening odds
- Moneyline: Bills -115 | Patriots -105
- Spread: Bills -1.5 (-105) | Patriots +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Patriots line movement
This line already jumped the fence at several of the best sports betting sites, with New England at -1 or -1.5. Even though the Patriots are tied for the best record in the NFL at 11-2, I expect the public to continue to back Josh Allen and Buffalo, who have won the AFC East every year since 2020.
The ceiling for this point spread is likely Bills -2.5, as it would take much one-sided sharp and public action on the road favorites to move this line to the key number of three.
This total spiked on the O/U lookahead line of 46.5, sitting now at 49.5. DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps at 50.5, but I expect it to align with the rest of the market at 49.5, despite the Patriots coming off a bye and the Bills playing a game with 73 combined points last week.
Divisional games late in the season tend to be lower-scoring, and these two teams combined for just 43 points in much better weather in Buffalo in Week 5.
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Bills vs. Patriots trends & betting notes: Week 15
- Drake Maye is 2-0 ATS vs. Josh Allen
- Josh Allen dropped to 32-5 SU as a favorite of at least seven points in a 23-20 home loss in Week 5 to New England
- Since 2001, the Bills are 12-38 SU vs. the Patriots, and Josh Allen has eight of those wins
- Buffalo’s 3-10 first-half ATS record is its worst through 13 games across the last 20 years
How to watch Bills vs. Patriots: Week 15
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 14
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: CBS
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