Bills vs. Broncos Predictions: Best Odds at Prediction Markets
The divisional round gets rolling on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High, and I'm diving in with my Bills vs. Broncos predictions based on the best odds from prediction markets, including Kalshi.
The Broncos are the -1.5 betting favorite to move on in the NFL playoff bracket.
๐ฐ Bills vs. Broncos predictions
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| To win | Bills |
| Broncos -1.5 | No |
| Over 47.5 | No |
| To score a touchdown | Josh Allen |
| To score first touchdown | RJ Harvey |
๐ Who will win Bills vs. Broncos at prediction markets?
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
The Broncos are currently trading at 52.5%, with the Bills notably lower at 47.5%. The price for "yes" on Buffalo sits at 48 cents through Kalshi, with the Broncos at 53 cents.
Our odds converter shows the Broncos' price converts to -112 betting odds, while the Bills are at +108.
Bills vs. Broncos prediction: Bills
See all of our NFL picks throughout the playoffs.
The Broncos' defense is terrifying, but the Bills' heavy lean on the run game means they're built to win a slugfest if that's what this game develops into.
James Cook is fresh off a season with nine 100-plus-yard rushing games, one of which came recently on the road against the New England Patriots and their sixth-ranked run defense.
💡 More Divisional Round predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game during the Divisional Round.
โ๏ธ Bills vs. Broncos spread & Over/Under at prediction markets
| Outcome | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Bills -2.5 | 44 cents (+117) | 57 cents (-132) |
| Under 47.5 | 46 cents (+117) | 55 cents (-122) |
Our prediction: Bills -2.5, Under 47.5
The Bills led the league in rushing attempts by a wide margin during the regular season (547, and the second-place team sat at 511). They're content to grind the game down, which fits right into what could easily develop into a cold-weather brute-force battle, with the clock constantly ticking.
⚖️ How to bet spreads and totals at Kalshi
Kalshi allows you to scroll to set your own line for the spread and Over/Under. The implied chance and Yes and No prices change automatically with the spread you choose, giving you a higher likelihood of winning your prediction, or a greater profit (with lower likelihood).
๐ Bills vs. Broncos props at prediction markets
Kalshi offers a wide range of props on every game, including team totals, player touchdowns, receptions, and passing, rushing, and receiving yards on all notable skill players. Simply choose the market of your liking, select your desired player and prop line, and make your pick on Yes or No.
Bills vs. Broncos touchdown scorer props at prediction markets
| Player | Anytime touchdown | First touchdown |
|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 54 cents (-117) | 16 cents (+525) |
| Josh Allen | 51 cents (-104) | 16 cents (+525) |
| James Cook | 51 cents (-104) | 14 cents (+614) |
| Courtland Sutton | 33 cents (+202) | 8 cents (+1150) |
| Khalil Shakir | 29 cents (+244) | 7 cents (+1328) |
| Troy Franklin | 24 cents (+316) | 6 cents (+1566) |
| Bo Nix | 24 cents (+316) | 6 cents (+1566) |
| Pat Bryant | 22 cents (+354) | 6 cents (+1566) |
| Evan Engram | 19 cents (+426) | 5 cents (+1900) |
| Dawson Knox | 18 cents (+455) | 5 cents (+1900) |
๐ฐ Bills vs. Broncos touchdown prediction: RJ Harvey to score first touchdown (16%)
Scoring could be a struggle due to the effectiveness of both defenses and the rushing lean of the offenses.
With that in mind, reach for more profit on the first touchdown market through RJ Harvey. The Bills allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs (18) and the sixth-most rushing yards to the position during the regular season.
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook. For example, in an NFL-style market, there could be a contract asking whether the Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl. If you think they will, you might buy a โYesโ contract at 35 cents, which implies a 35 percent chance. If the Bills win, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 65 cents per contract. If they lose, it settles at $0. Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowdโs collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line. Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.
Why should I wager on Bills vs. Broncos at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
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