Bills vs. Broncos Expert Picks for Divisional Round: NFL Predictions, Best Bets & Odds

Denver hosts Buffalo today, and I'm dropping my Bills vs. Broncos expert picks to get you set for the Divisional Round matchup at 4:30 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High (CBS) as part of our NFL playoff predictions.

The Broncos come into the game as 1.5-point betting favorites, but can Josh Allen and the Bills record the upset? Let's see what the experts say.

🏈 Bills vs. Broncos expert picks: Divisional Round predictions

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🔮 Bills vs. Broncos prediction

Bills moneyline (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Gary Pearson: This game should come down to the fourth quarter, and there's nobody I'd rather have under center than Allen, who is 8-2 in the playoffs against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs. 

He ranks first in several key statistical categories and is No. 1 in my NFL QB ratings. While Bo Nix will one day have an impressive playoff record, the Bills will take advantage of the sophomore's inexperience.

Buffalo's defense is at best mediocre, and while its second-worst run-stop is concerning, Denver's middling ground attack isn't strong enough to dominate. Meanwhile, the mismatch on the other side is why our Sean Tomlinson is also taking the road team in the Bills vs. Broncos prediction markets.

For more picks, take a look at Pearson's Bills vs. Broncos predictions.

🔥 Best Bills vs. Broncos player prop pick

Josh Allen Over 208.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Corey Scott: This number is too low, considering Allen had success through the air against the Broncos last season.

Allen completed 20 of 26 passes for 272 yards with two touchdowns against Denver in a wild-card game last season. The Broncos’ defense is allowing fewer yards this season (278.2 compared to 325.7), but its strength is its run defense, which gives up just 91.1 yards per game. With the run game likely contained, Allen should be able to replicate the success he had last season as a passer against Denver.

For more, tap into Scott's Bills vs. Broncos player props.

🙌 Best Bills vs. Broncos anytime touchdown scorer pick

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills (+300) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mike Spector: Buffalo’s wide receiver corps is depleted after losing Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to torn ACLs. With just three healthy wideouts coming into the week, expect Buffalo to feature its running backs and tight ends even more in the passing game, with the possibility of Dalton Kincaid being used often in the slot.

The Bills average a league-high 11.2 yards per reception to running backs and tight ends. And when Allen targets running backs and tight ends in the passing game this season, he ranked first in yards per attempt (8.6) and second in passing touchdowns (15). 

For more from Spector, dive into his anytime touchdown predictions for Bills vs. Broncos, or Scott's first touchdown scorer predictions for the Divisional Round.

1️⃣ Best Bills vs. Broncos first touchdown scorer pick

Josh Allen, QB, Bills (+650) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Of Josh Allen’s nine career playoff rushing touchdowns, the first eight of them came in the second quarter. With the Bills and Broncos defenses playing at a high level, it is highly possible this trend continues after a first quarter in which neither team finds the end zone.

Allen became just the second player in NFL history with a go-ahead passing touchdown and go-ahead rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter of the same playoff game. No matter how sore Allen is, he is the best player on the field, and will have the ball in his hands early and often.

See more analysis with Spector's first touchdown scorer predictions for Bills vs. Broncos.

🚀 Bills vs. Broncos same-game parlay

Here's a look at what our NFL expert Philip Wood is betting tonight with his best Bills vs. Broncos SGP paying out at +823 odds:

See Wood's full analysis in his Bills vs. Broncos same-game parlay piece before kickoff.

📊 Bills vs. Broncos odds: NFL Divisional Round

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game this season.

📺 How to watch Bills vs. Broncos: NFL Divisional Round

• Date: Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026
• Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver, Colo.)
• TV: CBS