Bills vs. Bears Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 16: Will Buffalo Inch Closer to AFC’s No. 1 Seed?

Check our best Bills vs. Bears pick based on the top odds.
Mike Spector
Mike Spector

Last updated: December 24, 2022 4:20 AM EST • 3 min read

The Buffalo Bills visit the Chicago Bears with a chance to cement their place atop the AFC. Read on for our Bills vs. Bears NFL pick based on the top odds.

Buffalo (11-3) became the second AFC team to clinch a playoff berth after last week’s 32-29 win over the Miami Dolphins. The victory was the Bills’ fifth straight, and with three more wins to finish the regular season, they would clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.

Chicago (3-11) is one of three NFC teams to be eliminated from playoff contention. The Bears’ seven-game losing streak is the second-longest in the league and is their longest since 2014-15. Chicago has also clinched back-to-back seasons with 11-plus losses.

Here is our best Bills vs. Bears NFL pick for Week 16 (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

  Check out our NFL Best Bets and all of our top NFL Picks for Week 16.  

Bills vs. Bears Game Info

Date: Saturday, Dec. 24, 1 p.m. ET 
TV: CBS
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Weather: 11 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, 22 mph W wind

Bills vs. Bears Odds

Bills vs. Bears Odds Analysis

The spread opened with the Bills as 10.5-point road favorites, but have been bet as low as -8. Sharp action is likely why this line dropped, as the Bills are still commanding 63% of the cash and 76% of the tickets.

The total has dropped from an opening number of 45.5 down to as low as 40, likely because of the high winds and below-zero wind chill. The Under is the popular play, with 60% of the cash and 63% of the tickets.

Bills vs. Bears Pick

Bills -8 ⭐⭐

The largest wagers supporting the Bears and the line moving toward the underdogs do not prevent us from backing the Bills in this game. Chicago has rushed for at least 125 yards in nine consecutive games for the first time since 1985. And many will point to the fact that Buffalo allowed Miami to run for 100 yards last week for the first time since Week 10. However, the Bills likely let the Dolphins chew up some yards on the ground because they had to be concerned with the speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the perimeter. 

Chicago was already missing wide receivers Chase Claypool (knee) and N’Keal Harry (back) and just added Equanimeous St. Brown (concussion) to its injury concerns last week. As a result, Leslie Frazier’s unit can likely commit more defenders to stop the run, especially since the high winds should limit the Bears’ passing game. The only reason for making this a two-star play is that Justin Fields became the third quarterback ever to record 1,000 rushing yards in a single season. One of the other two was Lamar Jackson, who ran for 73 yards against the Bills this season. Still, Buffalo is 11-3-2 ATS in its last 14 games against teams with a losing record, and we expect it to cover again.

Bills vs. Bears Best Odds

PointsBet (-107)

Pick BetMGM Caesars DraftKings FanDuel PointsBet
Bills spread -8.5 (-110) -8 (-110) -8.5 (-115) -8.5 (-104) -8 (-107)

We're seeing value separation between the sportsbooks, with PointsBet offering the most favorable juice at -8 and FanDuel providing the best payout at -8.5 (significantly better than DraftKings, which has actually shifted the value toward the Bears +8.5).

Bills-Bears pick made 12/22/2022 at 6:18 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”