NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 15: Will Detroit Extend its Cover Streak?
The Detroit Lions are one of the hottest teams in football, not only in terms of wins and losses, but also in terms of their ATS record. We dive into that and more in our list of Week 15 trends to know in the NFL.
One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand. For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.
Here are our top NFL trends to know for Week 15 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.
Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 15
Lions (+1) vs. Jets
The Detroit Lions have the longest active ATS cover streak (six games).
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last six games (two outright wins as underdogs) and easily covered as 9.5-point home underdogs in the one game it lost (28-25 to Buffalo on Thanksgiving). Furthermore, quarterback Jared Goff is 26-13 ATS in the 1 p.m. ET window (covered six straight) in his career, but is 26-29-2 ATS in all other time slots. He gets another early start on the road against the Jets in Week 15. However, when coming off a double-digit win (Lions beat the Vikings 34-23 last week), Goff is 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in his previous 12 such games.
On the other side, bettors would be up $716 in profits betting on the Jets to win straight up in every game this season.
Chiefs (-14) vs. Texans
Patrick Mahomes has never lost as a 5-point or bigger favorite on the road in his career.
Mahomes' dominance of Denver was well noted heading into last week, and the Chiefs have now beaten the Broncos 14 straight times after last week's 34-28 victory. Mahomes improved his record to 16-0 SU in games where he is a 5-point favorite or bigger on the road (Kansas City was 9.5-point favorites against Denver), but he is just 8-8 ATS in those games. Houston is coming off an easy cover and near outright upset as 17-point underdogs against Dallas, and will look to cover the biggest spread of the week for a second consecutive weekend.
Fade Teams with High Preseason Win Totals
Bills, Buccaneers, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers, and Rams are a combined 36-52-3 ATS this season.
What do the seven teams listed above have in common? They were the only seven teams with preseason win totals of 10 or more. However, despite the lofty preseason ambitions, they have been fade-worthy from an ATS perspective. Green Bay and the Rams play each other this week, but the remaining five teams have opportunities to keep cashing for bettors.
The Packers and Rams have already cashed the Under for their preseason win total. But Tampa Bay cashing its Under with last week's loss to San Francisco is historical in the sense that Tom Brady-led teams are now 16-4-2 to the Over on their preseason win totals, with this being the first time his team's Under has cashed since 2009 (had been 10-0-2 to the Over).
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