NFL Week 5 Bets to Make Now: Jump on Vikings, 49ers

Our midweek picks of NFL Week 5 highlight the two bets you need to maker now ahead of increased action and line moves over the weekend.
Neil Parker
Neil Parker

Last Updated: September 11, 2024 2:42 PM EDT • 3 minute read

The Thursday bets have gone 3-1 over the past two weeks, and now is the opportune time to back the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers. Read on for our top NFL Week 5 bets to make now.

One of the benefits of betting midweek is the markets have stabilized to a degree ahead of the weekend, and there is enough team and personnel information to make an informed wager.

I’m eyeing a pair of sizable favorites this week with mismatches that haven’t fully been accounted for in the spreads.

Week 5 NFL Bets to Make Now

Vikings -7 (-106 via FanDuel Sportsbook) vs. Bears

I’m not a trends chaser, but the Chicago Bears are 3-12 against the spread in their last 16 NFC North matchups and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games against an opponent with a winning record.

So, are you confident in Chicago quarterback Justin Fields hitting the highway and keeping pace with the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5?

The Bears rank 29th in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders, and 28th in offense grade per Pro Football Focus. Additionally, Fields is completing just 50.7% of his passes, and Chicago has the second-lowest dropback success rate in the league.

Chicago has also turned the ball over five times across its past two games against the Houston Texans and New York Giants. Not exactly a pair of Super Bowl-caliber defenses.

The Vikings haven’t been a defensive juggernaut with the 26th-ranked DVOA. But this is a clear step up in class on both sides of the ball for Chicago compared to its competition the past two weeks.

It’s a step down for the Vikings. Roll Skol.

49ers -6.5 (-110 via PointsBet) at Panthers

We missed the best of the number here, as this game opened with the San Francisco 49ers as 5-point favorites. However, with the spread still below the key number of 7, the movement isn’t as meaningful to me. 

I don’t love San Francisco traveling across the country following a divisional matchup on Monday Night Football, either.

Still, Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is both on the hot seat and 11-26 straight up, including a 5-14 record at Bank of America Stadium over the past three seasons. 

Now, he and the Panthers face the best statistical defense in the NFL by DVOA. Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield also has the lowest EPA per play and success rate of any qualified signal-caller this year. 

49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, meanwhile, is a healthy 33-21-1 against the spread during his career, including the postseason.

This is definitely a hold-your-nose bet on a road favorite, but if Rhule and Mayfield happen to figure it out and cover the spread or win outright, I can live with it.

I’m betting they can’t, and backing the team that’s allowed the lowest EPA per play and sits atop the league in both defensive DVOA and defense grade per PFF.

Where to Bet on NFL Moneyline Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

Written by:
Neil Parker
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.