NFL Betting Trends to Know Week 5: Can Ravens Cover Another Low Spread?
The Philadelphia Eagles are the only undefeated team left in the league. Recent history suggests they have an excellent chance to stay unbeaten when traveling to meet the Arizona Cardinals. We dive into that and more in our list of Week 5 trends to know in the NFL.
One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand. For example, head-to-head data between two teams that dates back to the 1970s does not provide much insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time.
Thus, we hope to give you the most relevant information and trends for you to use when making your weekly wagers.
Here are our top NFL trends to know for Week 5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 5
Eagles (-230 ML) vs. Cardinals
Arizona has lost seven consecutive home games for the first time since 1956-58.
You know this is a long streak when the last time the Arizona Cardinals lost this many consecutive games at home, they were the Chicago Cardinals. Arizona may petition the league to play the rest of its games on the road, as it is 10-2 away from home since the start of last season, including a 2-0 record this year.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles are off to their first 4-0 start since 2004. The Eagles became the second team since the 1970 merger to start 4-0 with 400-plus total yards in all four games. In addition, Philadelphia is the second team in the Super Bowl era with 20-plus first-half points in the first four games of a season, joining the 2002 Eagles.
Arizona must bring its run defense to this matchup, as Philadelphia just had its second game this season with at least 200 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.
Ravens (-3) vs. Bengals
Baltimore is 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 games it has played when the line has been between -3 and +3 since 2019.
The Baltimore Ravens are adept at covering these marginal spreads, including last week’s 23-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills as 3-point home underdogs. The Ravens could easily be 4-0 this season had they not blown two 17-point leads to the Bills and Miami Dolphins. Buffalo scored 20 unanswered points against Baltimore, which marked quarterback Josh Allen’s largest comeback (17 points) of his career. It was also Buffalo’s first one-possession win since the start of last season. The Bills had been 0-7 straight up in one-score games, including playoffs.
The Ravens are now amid their longest home-losing skid (five games) in franchise history and are 0-2 at home for the first time since 2015.
Trends also suggest this could be a low-scoring game, as Unders are 18-8 in road games for Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor. The Under also cashed in all four Bengals games this year.
ATS, Over/Under trends
These are all the remaining teams who are either unbeaten ATS, or have cashed the Over or Under in every one of their games this season:
Falcons (+9) vs. Buccaneers, Lions (Over 46.5) vs. Patriots, Colts (Under 43.5) vs. Broncos, Bengals (Under 48) vs. Ravens, 49ers (Under 39) vs. Panthers
The Atlanta Falcons are the only team remaining that has covered the spread in all four games this season. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are unbeaten to the Over (and have played the two highest-scoring games of the season), while the Indianapolis Colts, Bengals, and San Francisco 49ers have seen the Under cash every week.
Player props to watch
Herbert Over passing yards vs. Browns, Chubb Over rushing/receiving yards vs. Chargers
This week’s Los Angeles Chargers-Cleveland Browns matchup offers some interesting trends from a player prop perspective. Chargers QB Justin Herbert became the second player ever with 300-plus passing yards in seven consecutive road games, joining Rich Gannon. Herbert also tied Andrew Luck for the most 300-yard games (19) in his first three seasons.
On the other side, Browns running back Nick Chubb is the only player in the league with 100-plus scrimmage yards in all four games this season, after amassing 127 total yards in a three-point Browns loss at Atlanta in Week 4. In addition, the Chargers have allowed at least one run of 50-plus yards in three consecutive games. Thus, Chubb may break a big run in this matchup.
When player props are released later in the week, look at the numbers attached to Herbert’s passing total and Chubb’s combined rushing and receiving total.
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