NFL Best Bets for Week 8: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

With this week’s Thursday Night Football game behind us and six teams on a bye, I dive into the remaining 12 games to comprise my NFL best bets for Week 8.

My NFL picks involve my best 6-point teaser that brings the spreads from two big favorites closer to pick’ems, while also backing the Over in a prime-time game. My NFL predictions for Week 8 also showcase one of the best running backs in the sport, and I could not leave out my best prediction for a tight end on National Tight Ends Day.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 8

NFL best bets made Friday; odds subject to change.

• Bills -1.5 and Falcons -1.5 6-point teaser (-134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Packers-Steelers Over 45 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jalen Hurts longest pass completion Over 36.5 yards (-113 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Christian McCaffrey to score a first-half touchdown (+180 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Hunter Henry Under 40.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🦬 + 🪶 Bills -1.5 and Falcons -1.5 6-point teaser (-134) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has never lost three consecutive regular-season games in his career. So while he takes on a Panthers squad that is one of five remaining unbeaten teams at home, I expect Buffalo to have used the bye week to heal up and correct what was responsible for it scoring 20 or fewer points in back-to-back games. 

The optimistic view is that Allen’s four-game streak with multiple touchdown passes is tied for the longest active streak in the league. And since 2018, the Panthers are 7-14 ATS against teams with a winning record.

I am also teasing Atlanta’s spread through key numbers of seven and three, as it should enjoy a big advantage in the trenches against Miami. The Dolphins have allowed a league-worst 159.3 rushing yards per game, while Falcons running back Bijan Robinson leads the league with 152.3 scrimmage yards per game. 

This second leg adds great value to this teaser, as Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has won just one of his last 10 road starts. 

FanDuel offers the best value for this teaser, as it was the only one of our best sports betting sites charging -102 odds (less than the standard -110 juice at a 52.38% implied probability) to back Buffalo at -1.5. If both legs of this teaser cash, my $10 winning wager would return $7.46 in profits.

⬆️ Packers-Steelers Over 45 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Aaron Rodgers will be looking to air it out early and often in his first game against a Green Bay team he spent 18 seasons with. 

The Steelers will have to provide their quarterback protection against Micah Parsons, but they have shown they can have success against elite pass-rushers. They double-teamed Browns defensive end Myles Garrett 11 times in Week 6, and Garrett finished with zero tackles for loss and zero quarterback hits.

Pittsburgh’s offensive ceiling is high against a Green Bay defense that has just three takeaways this season (tied for the second-fewest in the NFL).

In 2024, Green Bay's offense was tied for 15th in third-down percentage, 10th in red-zone touchdown percentage, and 10th in efficiency. This year, those numbers have improved to first in third-down percentage, fifth in red-zone touchdown percentage, and third in efficiency.

Jordan Love’s seventh-ranked Total QBR is a big reason this total has ballooned as much as two points from an opening number of 43.5, per the latest NFL odds.

With several other best sports betting apps a half-point higher at 45.5, I am taking advantage of the best number and price at bet365. Through its -110 odds at a 52.38% implied probability, a $10 winning wager would net $9.09 in profits.

💰 Best NFL player prop bets for Week 8

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Jalen Hurts longest pass completion Over 36.5 yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It was clear Philadelphia’s offensive philosophy was to push the ball downfield and get more out of the passing game last week. Since that plan succeeded with flying colors, I expect it to let Jalen Hurts continue to sling it against an opponent he faced just two weeks ago.

Hurts threw for a season-high 316 passing yards and 14.2 yards per attempt last week. It was his first 300-yard game in his last 23 games (including playoffs), and he went 10-for-12 for 220 yards and two touchdowns when blitzed. 

In the process, he became the second quarterback in Eagles history with an 80% completion percentage and three touchdown passes in a game.

Hurts is also coming off his best game targeting A.J. Brown on deep throws. 

On passes 20 yards downfield to Brown over the first six games, Hurts completed two of eight passes for 68 yards and zero touchdowns. But last week alone on such throws, he completed all three passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns, with the three completions tying for the most in a game as teammates.

Caesars is the only sportsbook charging less than -115 in juice at 53.49% implied odds to back this wager. If Hurts completes at least one pass of 37-plus yards, my $10 winning wager would return $8.85 in profits.

🔥 Christian McCaffrey to score a first-half touchdown (+180) ⭐⭐⭐

Christian McCaffrey is coming off his ninth game with 100 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards in his career, which is tied for the third-most all time. He also turned in his fourth career game with 200-plus scrimmage yards and his first since 2019.

Having tight end George Kittle healthy will only help him going forward. With Kittle on the field, McCaffrey has 26 rushing attempts for 5.7 yards per rush, two rushing touchdowns, and 3.8 yards per contact per rush. With Kittle off the field, McCaffrey’s 106 rushes have averaged 3.0 yards per rush, 1.4 yards before contact per rush, and one score.

McCaffrey’s anytime touchdown odds are juiced as high as -165, carrying a 62.26% implied probability. But backing him to score in the first half is a much better value play, especially at FanDuel, whose +180 odds trump the +155 odds on the low end of the market. 

If McCaffrey does score in the first half, my $10 winning wager would return $18 in profits.

⬇️ Hunter Henry Under 40.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Patriots tight end Hunter Henry has seen five or fewer targets in each game since Week 4, with just 14 total targets in that span. He has not topped 50 receiving yards in any of those games.

Optimists will say Henry finished second on the team in targets last week and saw his highest amount of targets since Week 3. But the consistency is not there, and the fact that Caesars has the Under of 17.5 yards for his longest reception juiced to -120 at 54.55% implied odds gives me more confidence that Henry will not plod his way to 41 receiving yards.

A $10 winning wager through BetMGM’s -115 odds would net $8.33 in profits.