NFL Best Bets for Week 13: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

After cashing all three game predictions last week, my NFL best bets for Week 13 involve my favorite O/U and ATS plays, a team total, and player props on two pass catchers facing defenses that I expect to exploit in favorable matchups.

The below picks are part of the NFL predictions for Week 13. 

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 13

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13 based on the latest NFL odds.

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

⬇️ Bengals-Ravens Under 52.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Backing the Under as a five-star play in a game involving Cincinnati may seem blasphemous, as the Bengals have allowed 26-plus points in 10 straight games, the longest single-season streak in NFL history.

And now with Joe Burrow making his first start coming back from a turf toe injury, there will surely be many expecting a shootout. But this play comes down to how pedestrian Lamar Jackson has looked of late. 

Jackson’s 29.6 rushing yards per game and 10% sack rate are both on pace to be the worst of his career. In addition, his 36 Total QBR over the last three weeks ranks just 24th, and he is 32nd in accuracy on first-read throws over the last four weeks, after finishing second in that metric last year.

Jackson’s 71 rushing yards in the last four games are his lowest in a four-start span of his  career. And with no runs of 20 or more yards this season, Baltimore’s offensive ceiling is much lower when he is not using his legs as a weapon. While he hasn't been himself since returning from injury, Isaiah Sirois predicts he will score a touchdown in his Bengals vs. Ravens player pros. 

The -118 juice at 54.13% implied probability is worth paying up for at FanDuel, as it is the only one of the best sports betting sites with a total higher than 51.5.

I am laying down a $10 wager while taking advantage of that full extra point in the hopes of netting $8.47 in profits. These picks are also part of our NFL Thanksgiving predictions. If you're looking for a contrarian play, check out Philip Wood's Bengals vs. Ravens prediction. 

🦅 Eagles -7 (-102) ⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia had its four-game winning streak snapped in dubious fashion, as it tied the largest blown lead in a loss by a defending Super Bowl champion all-time when it squandered a 21-point lead against the Cowboys.

Much has been made of the Eagles’ lack of offensive success. Philadelphia ranks 24th in the NFL in Offensive EPA over the last two weeks. And over the course of the entire season, its 3.9 yards per rush, 2.3 yards before contact, and 24% rushing first downs are all the worst under Nick Sirianni since 2021. 

The good news is that a matchup with the Bears is one the Eagles can use to get their running game back on track. Chicago was down a couple of starting linebackers last week, and the Bears are also an overrated team, as one of three with a negative point-differential through eight games in NFL history despite being 8-3 or better.

With all +7s juiced to -114 or higher, I would not put anyone off waiting to see if the market adjusts and moves the line off the key number of -7 to -6.5. Even if it never gets there, this is still a play at -7, with BetMGM’s -102 odds offering the best return (potential $9.80 in profits on a $10 wager.)

⬇️ Colts team total Under 24.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston’s second-ranked scoring defense and NFL-best total defense has held opponents under 20 points in eight games. It just held the Bills to a season-low 4.9 yards per play, and should have plenty of confidence facing a declining Daniel Jones.

On plays without play action, Jones had an 81 Total QBR, and completed 71% of his passes for an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the first eight games. All of those metrics ranked in the top five in the NFL. 

But over the last three games on such throws, Jones’ Total QBR has dropped to 38, and he is completing 63% of his passes with a 4-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

If Indianapolis scores 24 or fewer points for the third time in four games, my $10 wager through DraftKings’ -115 odds would net $8.70 in profits.

💰 Best NFL player props for Week 13 

⬆️ Jaylen Waddle player prop: Over 5.5 receptions (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has five or more receptions in five of the last seven games. He should also see an uptick in end zone targets facing a Saints defense that has allowed eight touchdowns to wide receivers since Week 6 (tied for the third-most).

Instead of backing Waddle’s market-best +112 anytime touchdown odds, I am banking on him hauling in at least six catches, as defenses start to key in more on De’Von Achane. Achane is the first Dolphins player with 165-plus scrimmage yards in consecutive games since Jay Ajayi in 2016.

FanDuel is the only top sports betting site charging less than -109 to back the Over. Its -108 odds carry a 51.92% implied probability, and would net $9.26 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

🔥 Dawson Knox player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+300) ⭐⭐

Buffalo’s offense has been heavily criticized for its passing game becoming overly reliant on throwing to running backs and tight ends, as its wide receivers are having a hard time creating separation.

But a matchup against the Steelers defense is not the worst for that philosophy, as they allow 93.2 receiving yards per game to running backs and tight ends (21st-most). Dawson Knox’ routes have increased in four straight games, and his four targets in Week 12 were the second-most on the team.

Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most touchdown receptions to tight ends (seven), which makes Knox’ +300 anytime touchdown odds at Caesars worth a two-star flier.

If Knox snaps a five-game drought without a touchdown, my $10 winning wager would return $30 in profits.