NFL Best Bets Today: Week 11 Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

My NFL picks have gone a profitable 3-2 each of the last two weeks, and I am back to build off that momentum with my NFL best bets today for Week 11.

My NFL Week 11 predictions involve my best ATS and team total plays in divisional contests, while expecting a preseason Super Bowl contender’s struggles to continue. From a player prop perspective, I expect huge things from a running back in the week’s international game, and am backing a tight end to extend his anytime touchdown streak.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks today: Week 11

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 11 based on the latest NFL odds.

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

🟣 Vikings -3 (-109) ⭐⭐⭐

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is 1-7 in his career against divisional opponents, including an 0-3 record against the Vikings. In those eight career divisional starts, he has posted a 58 Total QBR. In all other games, he has a 44 Total QBR and a 21-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Bears are third in the NFL in Offensive Efficiency over the last two weeks. But until I see more consistency from Chicago against NFC North opponents (0-2 against the division, 6-1 against everyone else this season), I am going to back the Vikings and J.J. McCarthy. 

This is a three-star play, as McCarthy is 2-0 SU and ATS against divisional opponents, with both wins coming on the road, and the team averaging 27 points in those two contests.

Caesars is the only top sports betting site charging less than the standard -110 juice to lay the field goal with the favorites. Its -109 odds carry a 52.15% implied probability, and would net $9.17 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

🧭 Buccaneers +5.5 (-107) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s career record against the Dolphins dropped to 13-3, with last week’s loss being the only one coming by more than four points.

Buffalo has now lost three of five games after a 4-0 start, and its offense suddenly looks in dire need of playmakers.

Through Weeks 1-4, Bills drives resulted in a 37% touchdown percentage (the best in NFL in that span), a 2% turnover percentage (also best in the NFL), and a 26% punt percentage. But in Weeks 5-10, the Bills have scored touchdowns on just 29% of their drives with 15% ending in turnovers, and punting on 35% of their possessions.

With Tampa Bay at +5.5 across the market, the best return on a $10 wager is through Caesars’ -107 odds. Those would net $9.35 in profits if the Buccaneers cover.

⬇️ Browns team total Under 15.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

My most confident five-star best NFL prediction this week is the Browns to stay Under their projected team total of 15.5 points.

The Ravens are coming off their third straight win after starting 1-5. They had a season-high 12 quarterback hits and two interceptions in last week’s road win at the Vikings, and also had three total takeaways (tied for their most this season).

Over the first five games, Baltimore allowed an NFL-worst 35.4 points per game and 74 Total QBR, while forcing just two turnovers. However, over the last four games, they have allowed just 14.5 points per game and a 37 Total QBR, while forcing eight turnovers.

This Under is juiced as high as -118 at 54.13% implied odds at the high end of the market. That’s why I am opting for the best value at DraftKings, whose -110 odds would return $9.09 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

💰 Best NFL player props for Week 11

⬆️ De’Von Achane player prop: Over 123.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While this game takes place in Madrid, De’Von Achane could not have hand-picked a better defense to face this week than the Commanders.

Achane’s 5.5 yards per rush are third-most among running backs, and he faces a Washington defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards per rush to the position since Week 6 (and the third-most yards overall this season). 

I am backing Achane’s rushing and receiving yards total with one of my best NFL player props this week, as he leads all Dolphins with 49 receptions. Meanwhile, the Commanders have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 4.

Achane is coming off a monster game against the Bills where he totaled 195 yards after contact and forced a career-high 11 missed tackles. He is the only player with 700-plus rushing and 300 or more receiving yards this season, and the Dolphins are 3-0 when he has more than 20 touches in a game.

FanDuel’s -114 odds carry a 53.27% implied probability, and would net $8.77 in profits on a $10 wager if Achane finishes with at least 124 scrimmage yards.

🔥 Trey McBride player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Cardinals tight end Trey McBride is one player that doesn’t mind having Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback in place of Kyler Murray. McBride has five receiving touchdowns in four career games with Brissett under center, and three in the 21 games with Murray.

McBride has less competition for targets this week with Marvin Harrison Jr. out after appendix surgery. He faces a 49ers defense that was just torched for 42 points by another division rival (Rams), and has the fifth-worst opponents’ third down conversion rate (48.2%) since Week 6 when Fred Warner was ruled out with a season-ending injury.

The +120 odds found at DraftKings are a great value compared to McBride’s -115 anytime touchdown odds at the opposite end of the market. If McBride scores a touchdown for the fifth straight game, my $10 wager would net $12 in profits.

💡 NFL expert picks today

Follow all of our NFL analysis for Week 11 throughout the week.

• NFL picks against the spread Week 11
• NFL QB clutch player ratings Week 11
• NFL survivor picks Week 11
• NFL AI predictions Week 11
• NFL weather report Week 11
• NFL upset picks Week 11
• NFL player props Week 11
• NFL best bets Week 11
• NFL moneyline picks Week 11
• NFL anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 11
• NFL 2+ touchdown scorer predictions Week 11
• NFL anytime touchdown scorer parlay Week 11
• NFL long-shot parlay Week 11