NFL Best Bets for Week 14: ATS Predictions & Player Props

My NFL best bets for Week 14 have you covered for an exciting weekend of action, including highlighting two games between divisional opponents where first place is on the line.

The Steelers-Ravens and Bears-Packers tilts are the focus of my traditional ATS and O/U NFL Week 14 predictions. I also expect a bounce-back from an MVP contender and expect rebounds from two-star wide receivers who have seen their production dip in recent weeks.

NFL best bets for Week 14

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 14 based on the latest NFL odds.

Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Steelers-Ravens Under 43.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Lamar Jackson’s struggles have directly correlated to an underperforming Ravens offense of late. 

Through the first 4 games, Jackson compiled a 73 Total QBR, 10-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 72% completion percentage, and 166 rush yards. But over the last five games, those numbers have dipped to a 43 Total QBR, 5-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 60% completion percentage, and 98 rush yards. 

Jackson has zero passing touchdowns in his last three 3 games, his longest drought as a starter. He has also been off-target on an NFL-worst 28% of his passes over the last three  weeks, while the team ranks 26th in Offensive Efficiency over that span.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers’ left wrist injury forced Pittsburgh to change its playbook completely last week, with him operating more out of the pistol for comfortability on running plays. I have no confidence in the Steelers offense this week after totaling just 10 first downs and 166 yards last week.

The -115 juice at 53.49% implied odds is worth paying up for at Fanduel, as it is the only one of the best sports betting sites with a total higher than 43.

I am laying down a $10 wager while taking advantage of that extra half-point in the hopes of netting $8.70 in profits.

Packers -6.5 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

My most confident five-star best NFL prediction lays the points with the Packers at home with first place on the line against the NFC North-leading Bears.

Chicago is amid a five-game winning streak for the first time since 2018, but oddsmakers are still skeptical considering its passing game ranks 31st in completion percentage and dead-last in off-target percentage.

Meanwhile, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has impressive splits when pressured compared to when he is not under pressure, which should play well in this matchup.

When pressured, Love has a 36 Total QBR, 39% completion percentage, 5.2 yards per attempt, 0-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and has been off-target on 23% of his throws. When not pressured, those numbers spike to an 84 Total QBR, 76% completion percentage, 8.6 yards per attempt, 19-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and 9% off-target percentage.

That is significant, because the Bears defense ranks 30th in pressure rate (25%) and 22nd in sack rate (6%), while allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns. 

With the rest of the market juiced to -115 or higher to lay the 6.5 points, FanDuel’s -112 odds at a 52.83% implied probability offers the best return (potential $8.93 in profits on a $10 wager).

Rams team total Over 27.5 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After compiling a 70 Total QBR and four total turnovers through the first 11 games, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford turned in a clunker with a 26 Total QBR and three turnovers in a surprising loss to the Panthers last week. But given that game was played in poor weather conditions and the team still scored 28 points, I expect an even better offensive performance in Arizona’s domed stadium.

Stafford still leads the NFL with 32 passing touchdowns, while the Cardinals have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the last four weeks. Stafford has also thrown at least three touchdown passes in two of the last four games he has played against Arizona. 

Compared to FanDuel’s -115 juice to back the Over of 28.5, the -120 odds at DraftKings are worth the slightly less return, seeing as we are bringing the team total down through a key betting number. If Los Angeles scores 28-plus points for the sixth time in the last seven games, my $10 winning wager would return $8.33 in profits.

Best NFL player props for Week 14

Search the best NFL player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.

Justin Jefferson player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+180) ⭐⭐⭐

There was a time in Justin Jefferson’s young career when it was rare to get his anytime touchdown scorer odds at plus-money. But these odds are very enticing given the defense he is facing, as this is a great “get right” spot for one of the league’s most talented wide receivers.

Washington has allowed an NFL-worst 8.2 yards per attempt this season, and is in the bottom six in yards allowed to wide receivers.

While Jefferson’s production may be down, he still has 12 games with six-plus targets (most among wide receivers), while the Commanders have allowed the second-most yards per target to the position.

Compared to the +155 anytime touchdown odds on the low end of the market, a $10 winning wager through DraftKings’ generous +180 odds would net $2.50 more in profit ($18 versus $15.50).

Emeka Egbuka player prop: Over 60.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has completed one of 13 deep passes (20-plus air yards) since Week 7, after going 10-of-25 on such throws through the first six weeks.

That has lowered Emeka Egbuka’s props considerably, as has the fact that he has the lowest catchable target rate since Week 6. 

I am banking on a big bounce-back from Egbuka, who still has 10 games with at least seven targets (tied for the most among wide receivers). He faces a Saints defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards per target to wide receivers. And since Week 9, the Saints have allowed the second-highest completion percentage to perimeter wideouts.

BetMGM’s -115 odds carry a 53.49% implied probability, and would net $8.70 in profits on a winning $10 wager.