NFL Best Bets for the Divisional Round: ATS Picks & Player Props This Week

My NFL best bets for the Divisional Round take a look at the four games on this weekend’s slate, as teams vie for their spots in their respective conference championships.

As part of our NFL Divisional Round predictions, I am backing a defensive struggle in the Bills-Broncos matchup, while also expecting a reversal of fortunes from an NFC matchup that played out just two weeks ago.

🏈 NFL best bets for the Divisional Round

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in the Divisional Round.

Bills-Broncos Under 46.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Buffalo lost two wide receivers (Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers) to torn ACLs last week, leaving it with three healthy wideouts for this matchup.

Khalil Shakir stepped up with 12 receptions last week, the second-most in a playoff game in Bills history. But even if he doesn’t now draw coverage from Broncos lockdown cornerback Pat Surtain II, Surtain’s 4.8 yards per target to tight ends are the second-fewest as the nearest defender since 2021.

This sets up to be a game where Buffalo uses its massive offensive line to run the ball and limit possessions, especially in the Denver altitude. And from a refereeing standpoint, Unders are 11-4 in 15 playoff games with Carl Cheffers as the head official.

49ers +7.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Seattle held San Francisco to three points and 173 yards in a road win while clinching the No. 1 seed two weeks ago. But 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 4-0 in the Divisional Round, and is 3-0 SU as an underdog in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds combined.

Despite many injuries on defense, the 49ers held the Eagles to 3.9 yards per rush and 4.3 yards per play (Philadelphia’s worst in a loss this season). Offensively, San Francisco can build off averaging a season-high 7.2 yards after the catch per reception.

This is a three-star play, as the 49ers are 2-0 ATS in the franchise’s other two playoff games where they have been at least a touchdown underdog.

💰 Best NFL player props for the Divisional Round

C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 interceptions (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

C.J. Stroud faces a Patriots defense that is coming off allowing three points, totaling six sacks, and generating a 53% pressure percentage last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Those were New England’s best defensive outputs in playoff games since 2018, 2017, and 2012, respectively.

Stroud entered last week with the third-best Total QBR passing between the numbers this season (87). But his 0-2 record and zero passing touchdowns in the Divisional Round are concerning, especially since he has been pressured on 51% of dropbacks in those matchups.

As Stroud will potentially be without Nico Collins (concussion), and considering he had an 81.7 Total QBR when targeting Collins in the regular season, and a 57.9 QBR when targeting all his other wideouts, that does not bode well.

D’Andre Swift anytime touchdown scorer (+150) ⭐⭐⭐

The Rams-Bears total is the highest of any of the four Divisional Round games, with some of the best sports betting sites offering a line as high as O/U 49.5. And these two teams are a combined 26-10 to their team total Overs this season, which means there should be plenty of value from an anytime touchdown scorer perspective.

I am banking on Chicago emulating what Carolina did in a Week 13 upset of the Rams, when it turned 40 rushing attempts into 161 yards. This would become a more confident four-star play if I were sure the Bears could stay close in the first half and not have to overcome an 18-point halftime deficit, as they did last week.