AFC Championship Game Odds: Patriots the 3.5-Point Betting Favorite at Denver
The New England Patriots have seen their AFC Championship Game odds decrease from 5.5 to 3.5 points in the lead-up today's game at Empower Field at Mile High (3 p.m. ET, CBS).
Many are expecting Denver's game-wrecking defense to keep things close, with the winner set to advance to the Super Bowl. We have detailed and extensive coverage of today's action in our Conference Championship predictions.
📊 AFC Championship odds & betting lines: Patriots vs. Broncos
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this postseason.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -3.5 (-115) | -220 | Over 43 (-110) |
| Broncos | +3.5 (-105) | +185 | Under 43 (-110) |
After the Broncos opened as 1.5-point favorites on the AFC Championship look-ahead lines, the Patriots are now favored by 3.5 points at FanDuel to win on the road and reach the Super Bowl for the first time in the post-Tom Brady era.
The Patriots' moneyline odds of -220 imply a 68.75% chance they'll win at Denver and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl in Drake Maye's second season at the helm. Oddsmakers are expecting this to be a low-scoring affair with an O/U total of 43, an increase from 40.5 earlier in the week.
💡 Why are Patriots favored to beat Broncos in AFC Championship?
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
Just 24 hours ago, the Broncos were in strong position to win the AFC and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since winning it all in 2016. That came after a thrilling 33-30 overtime win over the Bills to ensure they'd host the AFC Championship on Sunday.
That win came at a cost, though, as Bo Nix suffered a season-ending injury on the final drive in overtime to set up his team's game-winning field goal. It's a brutal development for a team that has a championship-level defense but relied on Nix's high-upside throws to carry an offense that would otherwise be a mediocre unit.
With Nix sidelined, that leaves the Patriots with a massive advantage on that side of the ball while having an explosive offense behind Maye, an NFL MVP finalist, to challenge Denver's elite defense. In the end, that was enough for oddsmakers to flip the line by six points in the look-ahead lines even before New England's dominant win over the Texans in the divisional round.
Our Gary Pearson is backing the road favorites in his early Patriots vs. Broncos prediction for the AFC Championship, and he further breaks down how the Patriots will win the Super Bowl.
🤔 Who will start at QB for Broncos?
If you aren't already familiar with Jarrett Stidham - a former fourth-round pick with four career starts since 2019 - get ready to learn all about him over the next seven days.
The former Patriots draft pick has been a journeyman veteran backup for most of his career but started two games for the Broncos in 2023 before spending the last two years in a backup role. He'll become the first quarterback to make his first start of the season in a conference championship game since 1972, when Roger Staubach lost 26-3.
The Patriots' defense isn't an otherworldly unit, but its secondary has shut down opposing passing attacks when forced into one-dimensional looks, which we saw in the divisional round when C.J. Stroud threw four interceptions in a miserable effort. The Broncos will need to avoid falling behind early, or it could be a long day for Stidham and Co.
Can they still get the job done and go all the way? Our Dustin Saracini breaks down how the Broncos will win the Super Bowl.
🐎 Who is Jarrett Stidham?
Our Dustin Saracini breaks down what to know about Jarrett Stidham as he prepares for his first career playoff start, while Corey Scott explores the Jarrett Stidham Super Bowl MVP odds.
📺 How to watch AFC Championship: Patriots vs. Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 25
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- TV: CBS
🔮 Patriots vs. Broncos predictions
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
- AFC Championship odds
- How the Patriots win the Super Bowl
- How the Broncos win the Super Bowl
- Jarrett Stidham Super Bowl MVP odds
- Jarrett Stidham compared to Nick Foles
- How do backup QBs fare in conference championship?
- Patriots vs. Broncos prediction
- Patriots vs. Broncos player props
- Patriots vs. Broncos key matchups
- Patriots vs. Broncos prediction market
- Patriots vs. Broncos anytime touchdown scorer predictions
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- Patriots vs. Broncos same-game parlay
- Drake Maye player props
- Jarrett Stidham player props
- Patriots vs. Broncos weather report
- Patriots vs. Broncos expert picks
- AFC Championship Stats & Trends
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