AFC Championship Odds: Patriots Open as 4.5-Point Betting Favorite at Broncos

After yet another double-digit playoff victory, the New England Patriots opened as the betting favorites by the AFC Championship odds to beat the Denver Broncos next Sunday with a trip to Super Bowl 2026 at stake.

Denver was the look-ahead favorite after beating the Buffalo Bills in the NFL Divisional Round on Saturday, but that quickly changed after a devastating injury for the Broncos flipped the early odds. Then New England laid waste to the Houston Texans on Sunday and will enter next week as the favorite to add to its record 11 AFC titles.

📊 AFC Championship odds & betting lines: Patriots vs. Broncos

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this postseason.

After the Broncos opened as 1.5-point favorites on the AFC Championship look-ahead lines, the Patriots are now favored by 4.5 points at FanDuel to win on the road and reach the Super Bowl for the first time in the post-Tom Brady era.

The Patriots' moneyline odds of -245 imply a 71% chance they'll win at Denver and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl in Drake Maye's second season at the helm. Oddsmakers are expecting this to be a low-scoring affair with an O/U total of 40.5, which is tied for the second-lowest total of the postseason.

💡 Why are Patriots favored to beat Broncos in AFC Championship?

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Just 24 hours ago, the Broncos were in strong position to win the AFC and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since winning it all in 2016. That came after a thrilling 33-30 overtime win over the Bills to ensure they'd host the AFC Championship on Sunday.

That win came at a cost, though, as Bo Nix suffered a season-ending injury on the final drive in overtime to set up his team's game-winning field goal. It's a brutal development for a team that has a championship-level defense but relied on Nix's high-upside throws to carry an offense that would otherwise be a mediocre unit.

With Nix sidelined, that leaves the Patriots with a massive advantage on that side of the ball while having an explosive offense behind Maye, an NFL MVP finalist, to challenge Denver's elite defense. In the end, that was enough for oddsmakers to flip the line by six points in the look-ahead lines even before New England's dominant win over the Texans in the divisional round.

Our Gary Pearson is backing the road favorites in his early Patriots vs. Broncos prediction for the AFC Championship.

🤔 Who will start at QB for Broncos?

If you aren't already familiar with Jarrett Stidham - a former fourth-round pick with four career starts since 2019 - get ready to learn all about him over the next seven days.

The former Patriots draft pick has been a journeyman veteran backup for most of his career but started two games for the Broncos in 2023 before spending the last two years in a backup role. He'll become the first quarterback to make his first start of the season in a conference championship game since 1972, when Roger Staubach lost 26-3.

The Patriots' defense isn't an otherworldy unit, but its secondary has shut down opposing passing attacks when forced into one-dimensional looks, which we saw in the divisional round when C.J. Stroud threw four interceptions in a miserable effort. The Broncos will need to avoid falling behind early, or it could be a long day for Stidham and Co.

📺 How to watch AFC Championship: Patriots vs. Broncos

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 25
• Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• TV: CBS