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3 Bets to Consider While Burrow is Sidelined with Injury

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: August 5, 2023 9:55 AM EDT • 4 min 28 sec read.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a calf injury early in preseason camp. With his timetable unclear, here is a look at three different markets to monitor based on the best NFL odds.

The NFL world was sent a harsh reminder of how quickly things can change during preseason camp when Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a calf injury on July 27 and was carted off the field. Head coach Zac Taylor initially told reporters that Burrow will miss several weeks, making his status for Week 1 unclear.

NFL insider Ian Rapoport has since reported that sources close to the team believe he will be ready for the opener.

But that still puts Burrow at risk of missing another preseason, as the quarterback has played just three preseason snaps in his career since being drafted No. 1 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. He still has yet to have a normal summer heading into a new season, which has led to some underwhelming performances out of the gate. 

Last year, Burrow threw four interceptions in a 23-20 overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers during Week 1. Should we expect a similar outcome when the Bengals open the year on the road against the Cleveland Browns, or are there other markets worth exploring related to Burrow's injury?

Here are our best Joe Burrow injury-related picks (odds via our best sports betting apps).

Joe Burrow injury picks

Ravens +3.5 in Week 2 (-110 via DraftKings)

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Conventional wisdom would be to attack the Week 1 betting lines as soon as Burrow's injury was reported, but the market already did that. The Bengals opened as 2.5-point favorites at Caesars in their road opener against the Browns, and now the line is sitting at 1 across the best NFL betting sites. With any further news on Burrow likely to be more positive, there is no reason to bet into this discounted line.

Instead, I chose to bet on the Baltimore Ravens ahead of their Week 2 tilt in Cincinnati. The Week 1 line seems to be baking in some uncertainty with Burrow's status, but the Week 2 rivalry matchup has not moved at all. If Burrow is unable to go in the season opener, there is no guarantee that he'd be available the following week. At the very least, it could be Burrow's first or second game of the season after limited preseason reps.

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The reason why I like this bet the most is because there is value even if Burrow is ready to go by the regular season. Not only do my current power ratings make the Week 2 line a bit shorter, but it's easy to see a scenario in which the market moves this spread below the key number of 3 by kickoff.

While the Bengals open the year with a rivalry matchup against the Browns, the Ravens shouldn't have any problem dispatching the Houston Texans in Week 1. Don't be surprised if the market overreacts to a big win by a Baltimore team that is a 9.5-point favorite in the opener, particularly if the offense hits the ground running with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

Last year, Mike Macdonald made life difficult for Burrow in his first season as Baltimore's defensive coordinator. Burrow's best passing performance was 217 yards in three matchups against Macdonald's defense.

PFF makes Burrow worth 4.7 points to the spread, which honestly might be a touch light. That's important to keep in mind when monitoring the betting lines for the first few weeks as we gain more information about Burrow's status.

Bengals Under 3.5 division wins (+140 via DraftKings)

As explained in my Bengals betting preview, this team faces an uphill battle to winning the third AFC North crown in a row. The Bengals might be favorites, but this division has gotten more competitive.

Even in a down AFC North last year, Cincinnati went 3-3 against its division foes en route to a 12-4 campaign and another AFC Championship Game appearance. The Bengals are 56-58 all-time against their AFC North opponents, which includes an 8-10 clip since the team drafted Burrow.

We've already highlighted that the Bengals begin the year with back-to-back meetings against divisional teams. Their meeting with the Browns is currently considered a toss-up, but that could change if their starting quarterback is unable to go. The Ravens are not an easy opponent for a home opener, especially since they are priced as the Bengals' biggest challenger via the best sportsbooks.

Cincinnati wouldn't have to face another AFC North team until Week 11, so Burrow's status really only comes into play for the first two games. If he's sidelined or limited at all, there is a chance the Under on 3.5 division wins won't be listed as long as +140.

Caesars has taken down this market for the Bengals, so take advantage of DraftKings' mistake for leaving it up.

Monitor Burrow's MVP odds (+750 via DraftKings)

It's not all doom and gloom for Burrow and Co. with this piece. Even if the Bengals were to start slow, I still believe in their upside more than most other teams. In fact, we might even be able to use a slow start to our advantage.

Burrow entered last season around +1300 to win MVP, but his value took a pretty big dip after he threw four picks in a loss to the Steelers. He still ended up finishing fourth in MVP voting last year. There is a chance Burrow could have finished higher if the Bengals ended up with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Despite Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes winning the award last year, Burrow has overtaken him as the favorite at certain shops like BetMGM. The best number you can get on Burrow to win the award is +750, with him trading at 7/1 or shorter across the rest of our best sports betting sites.

I've yet to place a preseason MVP bet due to the lack of good prices at this point, but I'm ready to pounce on any dips throughout the season. Burrow is one of the quarterbacks I'll be eager to add to my portfolio, assuming he is unable to go in Week 1 or has another slow start to the season.

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.