2026 NFL Draft Odds: Ty Simpson Favorite To Be No. 1 Pick - Is He the Best Bet?

With just a few weeks left in the NFL regular season, disappointed fan bases across the country are turning their attention to the league's marquee offseason event and beginning to dream of a franchise savior. Could that be 2026 NFL Draft odds favorite Ty Simpson?

The Alabama QB is the favorite to be the No. 1 pick at the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh on April 23 at +200 betting odds. However, a pair of QBs, including the Heisman Trophy favorite, and several All-American defenders are expected to contend with Simpson to hear their name called first five months from now.

 📊 Live 2026 NFL Draft odds

Our 2026 NFL Draft odds update in real time based on the odds from our top NFL betting sites.

🐘 Favorite to be No. 1 pick: Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (+200)

There was a point in the college football season when Simpson could do no wrong. He was leading the Heisman Trophy odds, had Alabama cruising to an SEC Championship bid, and shot up the NFL draft oddsboard to become the favorite to be taken No. 1. However, over the last month, he's fallen completely out of the Heisman race, and Alabama no longer has a shot at playing in its conference championship after losing to Oklahoma.

So why is Simpson still the favorite to go No. 1? Well, he was the No. 1-ranked QB and No. 2 player overall, in Dane Brugler of The Athletic's most recent big board. Brugler is one of the most well-respected NFL draft analysts in the business and has plenty of sources within NFL front offices. So if Simpson is his top QB, it's fair to assume the Alabama QB is the top-rated QB for at least a few teams across the league.

But Brugler's rankings came out before Simpson's last two games, a loss to Oklahoma and a lackluster performance against Eastern Illinois of the FCS. How Simpson fares in the Iron Bowl against Auburn, and in the College Football Playoff (assuming the Crimson Tide beats the Tigers), will have a massive impact on how he's perceived in NFL draft circles.

Simpson also lacks experience, with this being his first year as a starter. We've seen recent QB prospects with limited collegiate starts struggle in the pros, so could that scare teams off, too? Two additional factors to consider here are that Simpson could return to school to develop and that the team picking No. 1 may already have a young QB (Tennessee Titans, New York Giants).

The price for Simpson to go No. 1 at our best sports betting sites pays just a $20 profit on a $10 winning bet. These odds are simply too short with so much uncertainty surrounding Simpson and with the draft still so far out.

🦆 Prediction to be No. 1 pick: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+1200)

Following Oregon's double OT win over Penn State, Dante Moore was both the favorite to win the Heisman and be the No. 1 pick in April. So much has changed since the Ducks beat the Nittany Lions on Sept. 27, but Moore's stellar play has continued, and he seems to be getting better with each passing week.

Right now, it's a three QB race between Simpson, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, and Moore. Simpson increasingly seems like the worst bet to be the No. 1 pick, with his odds being the shortest. And while Mendoza led the Hoosiers past the Ducks this season, and will likely win the Heisman, his price pays just a $30 profit on a $10 winning bet.

Though Mendoza is a better play than Simpson at this point, I don't think any player on the board can justify having odds shorter than +500. The NFL draft is months away, with evaluations far from over. We don't know which team will have the No. 1 pick, and we don't even know which prospects will return to school for that sweet, sweet NIL bag as they attempt to bolster their draft stock.

Moore experience than Simpson

Although Phil Knight could back up the Brinks truck to keep Moore in Oregon, his recent play suggests he's trending toward being a top-five pick. The former five-star recruit is just 20 years old, but has more collegiate starts (16) under his belt than the soon-to-be 23-year-old Simpson (11), and his advanced numbers are on par with Mendoza.

Moore has a higher big-time throw rate (6.7%) and adjusted completion rate (81.%) than Mendoza (5.3%, 80.4%). If Moore turns pro following a strong showing in the College Football Playoff, he should be right there with Simpson and Mendoza to go No. 1. And a $10 winning bet on Moore pays a lot more than on Mendoza or Simpson ($120).

🌰 Long shot to be No. 1 pick: Caleb Downs, SAF, Ohio State (+10000)

Let's be honest, even in years with weak QB classes, a quarterback almost always goes No. 1. Since Peyton Manning was selected No. 1 in 1998, a QB has been the top choice in 21 of 28 drafts. And since 2015, a passer has been the first player selected in nine of 11 drafts. The position is so important, a team in need of a QB would rather take a JaMarcus Russell over a Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas.

The only two times in the last decade when a QB wasn't the top selection were when the Cleveland Browns took perennial NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Myles Garrett and when the Jacksonville Jaguars took freak athlete Travon Walker after having selected Trevor Lawrence No. 1 the previous year.

The QB is the most important position on the field, and the players who hunt them are the second most important position. Which is why a pass rusher like Miami's Rueben Bain Jr. has the third-shortest odds to go No. 1. But if I were betting on any defender over Simpson, Mendoza, and Moore, it would be Ohio State's hybrid linebacker Arvell Reese, who's drawn comparisons to Micah Parsons.

With that said, his price pays just a $90 profit on a $10 winning bet, and there's a chance the team picking No. 1 doesn't love a QB (or already has one) and has a premier pass rusher. Take the Giants, for example, they want to build around Jaxson Dart and just took Abdul Carter No. 3. What if they end up with the No. 1 pick and aren't offered enough to move it?

Going Downs in history

That's what this long shot bet is all about, banking on something strange happening at the top of the draft in a class without a clear No. 1 pick. Ohio State's Caleb Downs is going to be tagged as the "best bet" in the draft or the "safest player," or the "best football player." That's because of his football IQ and versatility as more of a defensive weapon than a safety.

The last, and only time, a defensive back went No. 1 was ... Gary Glick in 1956. But if Downs, soon-to-be three-time All-American, ends up hearing his name called first in April (0.99% probability), a $10 bet pays a $1,000 profit.

❓2026 NFL Draft FAQs

Who is favored to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Alabama QB Ty Simpson is the early favorite to be the No. 1 pick, according to the 2026 NFL Draft odds. His odds of +200 imply a 33.33% probability he'll go No. 1 in April, according to our odds converter.

Who has the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

We won't know who holds the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft until the end of the regular season. Ahead of Week 13 of the NFL season, five teams have fewer than three wins: the Tennessee Titans, the New York Giants, the New Orleans Saints, the New York Jets, and the Las Vegas Raiders.

Who was the first overall pick last year?

The Tennessee Titans selected Miami QB Cam Ward with the No. 1 pick in last year's NFL draft.

When is the 2026 NFL Draft?

The 2026 NFL Draft will be held from April 23-25. The first round of the draft will begin at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 23. The NFL draft will be broadcast on NFL Network and ESPN.

Where is the 2026 NFL Draft?

The 2026 NFL Draft will be held in Pittsburgh.

How to bet on the 2026 NFL Draft

You can bet on who will be selected No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft at our best NFL draft betting sites. As the NFL draft approaches, more NFL draft betting markets will become available.