Wooden Award Odds: Can Cooper Flagg Retake Lead Over Johni Broome?
In 50 years when they look back on this college basketball season, they'll tell tales of how dominant two programs were in comparison to every other. Those two teams, Auburn and Duke, have given us one of the greatest Wooden Award odds races in recent memory.
Basically since mid-November, Johni Broome and Cooper Flagg have been battling it out atop the Wooden Award odds. The Blue Devils freshman phenom had a steady lead on the oddsboard the last few weeks, but Broome's dominance since returning from injury has vaulted him to the top.
As the end of the regular season approaches and the two gear up for the ACC and SEC tournaments, respectively, can Flagg surpass Broome again and become just the fourth freshman in history to win the Wooden Award?
🏆 Wooden Award odds: Johni Broome vs. Cooper Flagg
🔵 Can Cooper Flagg win the Wooden Award?
🥇 Cooper Flagg Wooden Award odds (+200)
Just two weeks ago, Flagg had odds shorter than -200 and an implied probability of higher than 65% to take home college basketball's Heisman Trophy. At the start of this week, he was even still minus money with his -155 odds implying a 60.78% probability he would win the award.
However, after Broome followed up his 31-point, 14-rebound performance against Georgia with a 24-point, nine-rebound outing against No. 23 Ole Miss, he became the Wooden Award odds favorite for the first time since getting hurt against South Carolina and missing two games.
Quite frankly, neither Broome nor Flagg should be as short as either have been in this race. Right now, there is no wrong answer for picking one to win the Wooden over the other, which is why I think it's worth jumping on Flagg's +200 odds at our March Madness betting sites, despite the fact that I would vote for Broome at this point.
📊 Tale of the tape
Stats via college basketball reference, EvanMiya, KenPom, and Bracket Matrix.
| Stats | Johni Broome | Cooper Flagg |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8 | 19.4 |
| Rebounds per game | 11.0 | 7.6 |
| Assists per game | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Steals per game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Blocks per game | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Field goal percentage | 53.6% | 49.1% |
| 3-point percentage | 29.9% | 37.5% |
| BPR (national rank) | 10.10 (No. 2) | 10.58 (No. 1) |
| OBPR (national rank) | 7.04 (No. 1) | 6.05 (No. 3) |
| DBPR (national rank) | 3.06 (No. 45) | 4.53 (No. 2) |
| March Madness odds | +350 | +375 |
| Teams KenPom rating | No. 2 | No. 1 |
| Bracket Matrix seed projection (overall seed) | No. 1 (No. 1) | No. 1 (No. 2) |
They both have Wooden Award-worthy numbers, and they lead the two March Madness odds favorites in a year where it's clear Auburn and Duke are a cut above every other program.
It's also important to remember voting for the Wooden Award doesn't actually close until after the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Meaning, both still have their conference tournaments and three rounds of March Madness games to make their cases over the other.
That alone says to me it would be silly to bet Broome now after he'd been +150 or longer for several weeks. It also says that this is the time to bet Flagg because it's not like his play has dropped off and that's why Broome has surpassed him on the oddsboard.
Part of the reason his numbers haven't been as eye-popping as Broome's lately is because the SEC schedule is a gauntlet and Auburn needs their star playing serious minutes. That's not the case for Duke in the ACC ... the Blue Devils have beaten their last five opponents by at least 18, and Flagg hasn't had to do as much as Broome.
It is important to remember, though, that Flagg is the favorite to go No. 1 by the NBA draft odds, not only because of his versatile offensive skill set but because he's a dominant defender. That's one aspect of his game that Broome, a rim-protecting monster, can't even compete with based on the metrics.
So while in a "tie-resume" scenario the voters would likely lean toward picking the fifth-year senior who developed from a starter at an Ohio Valley Conference school (Morehead State) into the best player in the best conference over a one-and-done freshman, Flagg has him beat on one end of the court.
The other thing in Flagg's favor? Duke handed Auburn one of its two losses this season, an 84-78 Blue Devils win in December in which Flagg had 22 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and two blocks. Not bad for a kid playing in just his eighth career collegiate game.
My argument is that these two are both worthy of the Wooden, and would win the award in almost any other year, so neither should have an implied probability of over 60% to win it this year. That's why, even as someone who would vote for Broome, Flagg's the player to bet on right now with these odds.
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