Why BetMGM Bettors Are Picking No. 13 Furman to Upset Virginia in March Madness
Upsets and underdogs are all the rage in March Madness betting and bracket contest circles – and at least one sportsbook is reporting significant action on a potential Cinderella team.
BetMGM Sportsbook's latest betting trends reveal that the Furman Paladins, the No. 13 seed in the South Region, are a heavy public favorite in Thursday's first-round matchup against the No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers. As of Tuesday morning, Furman – a 5.5-point underdog in the latest March Madness odds – has attracted 73% of the total bets and 82% of the handle ATS as one of the most popular March Madness upset predictions.
Even more shocking: The Paladins (+185) have seen 70% of the bets and 79% of the handle as an outright play when bettors are making their Furman vs. Virginia picks.
It isn't just that people are leaning on a Furman team making its first March Madness appearance since 1980: they're also betting on the Paladins at an absurd rate. Furman is the most-bet team in terms of tickets and handle of any NCAA Tournament participant.
These BetMGM trends are fascinating, because the early consensus in most other spots has this matchup split nearly down the middle from an ATS perspective, with Virginia -5.5 attracting 51% of all wagers. That share is slightly higher since the total moved to -5.5 from an opening of -5.
“Every March there’s always one trendy upset pick the public falls in love with and this year it appears to be Furman," BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee said Tuesday. "They tout a very efficient offense and Virginia has not looked like themselves for the better part of a month.
"Bettors have been taking advantage of that by fading UVA the last few weeks and are looking to continue that trend."
Why is Furman a popular March Madness pick?
So Furman is the ruler of all March Madness picks made at the King of Sportsbooks – but why? It starts with Magee's main point: these Paladins can play.
While Furman (27-7) put together an impressive Southern League campaign – erasing the sting of last year's buzzer-beating conference tournament loss to Chattanooga – that's hardly an explanation for these BetMGM March Madness betting trends.
A deeper dive into the Paladins' season, however, reveals plenty of compelling reasons why the Bob Richey-led roster is seeing plenty of betting love this week.
For starters, this team can score in bunches. Here's a look at where Furman ranks in Division I across several notable categories:
| Category | Average | Overall |
|---|---|---|
| 2PT FG% | 59.1 | 1st |
| AST/Game | 17.1 | 6th |
| PTS/Game | 82.1 | 11th |
| Effective FG% | 56.4 | 11th |
| Overall FG% | 48.3 | 19th |
| Made 3PT/Game | 9.5 | 19th |
Granted, the level of competition is a step below the top conferences in NCAA basketball, but Furman's offensive achievements are impressive nonetheless.
There's also a strong pedigree here, with the Paladins finishing top-3 in the conference all six years with Richey at the helm. The team actually reached the Top 25 national rankings briefly during the 2018-19 seasons, and has won 25+ games three of the past five years.
And let's not overlook Virginia's role in this. Cavaliers fans, now would be a good time to skip to the next section (and even then, it's not all sunshine and roses.)
While Virginia did win the national championship in 2019, it has also been on the wrong end of two major upsets the past five years – including what is undoubtedly the most infamous loss in tournament history. The Cavaliers became the first No. 1 seed to lose a first-round matchup, falling 74-54 to No. 16 UMBC in 2018 – a game so stunning, it has its own Wikipedia page.
That checkered history, combined with Magee's accurate assessment of Virginia's recent play (the Cavaliers have won just four of their last seven games and are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine) provides plenty of ammunition for Furman bettors everywhere.
A history of 13-seed upsets
There's also the allure of those 12th- and 13th-seeded teams pulling off an inordinate number of upsets over the years – and that line of thought has no doubt seeped into these BetMGM trends.
Nearly 21% of 13 seeds (31 of 148) have won their opening-round match vs. the No. 4 seed since the tournament first expanded in 1985. And it has happened at a rate of nearly once per year since the turn of the century; here's a look at those upsets since 2001:
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2001 | Indiana State 70, Oklahoma 68 |
| 2001 | Kent State 77, Indiana 73 |
| 2002 | UNC Wilmington 93, USC 89 |
| 2003 | Tulsa 84, Dayton 71 |
| 2005 | Vermont 60, Syracuse 57 |
| 2006 | Bradley 77, Kansas 73 |
| 2008 | Siena 83, Vanderbilt 62 |
| 2009 | San Diego 70, UConn 69 |
| 2010 | Cleveland State 84, Wake Forest 69 |
| 2011 | Morehead State 62, Louisville 61 |
| 2012 | Ohio 65, Michigan 60 |
| 2013 | La Salle 63, Kansas State 61 |
| 2016 | Hawaii 77, California 66 |
| 2018 | Buffalo 89, Arizona 69 |
| 2018 | Marshall 81, Wichita State 75 |
| 2019 | UC Irfine 70, Kansas State 64 |
| 2021 | North Texas 78, Purdue 69 (OT) |
| 2021 | Ohio 62, Virginia 58 |
Even though no 13 seeds prevailed in 2022, those games featured plenty of drama. Three of the four 4-vs.-13 first-round matchups were decided by four or fewer points, highlighted by 2022 Southern Conference champ Chattanooga losing a 54-53 heartbreaker to Illinois.
Not so fast ...
While it might be tempting to look at the BetMGM betting insights, combine those with notable March Madness trends involving double-digit seeds and take the plunge, not everyone is on the Paladins train this year.
As mentioned earlier, most sports betting sites are seeing action split nearly down the middle when it comes to ATS wagers. And early returns from the Yahoo! March Madness bracket data reveal that only 12% of participants have selected Furman to win outright vs. Virginia.
Whether Furman pulls off the upset victory, comes up short (but still covers) or ends up being overmatched by the Cavaliers, it's clear that the Paladins have no shortage of betting support at one of the best sportsbooks in the industry.
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