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Paige Bueckers #5 of the Connecticut Huskies yells after a play as we offer our best UConn vs. Iowa prediction and pick for the women's Final Four on Friday.
Paige Bueckers #5 of the Connecticut Huskies yells after a play during the first half against the USC Trojans in the Elite 8 round of the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament at Moda Center on April 01, 2024 in Portland, Oregon. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images via AFP.

Caitlin Clark leads the Iowa Hawkeyes against Paige Bueckers and the UConn Huskies on Friday in the women's Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, and we offer our UConn vs. Iowa prediction and expert pick based on the best Final Four odds.

It's hard to manufacture a better Final Four matchup than this one, as Caitlin Clark and the No. 1 Iowa Hawkeyes (33-4) take on Paige Bueckers and the No. 3 UConn Huskies (33-5) in what promises to be one of the best games of March Madness and the entire college basketball season.

One of the biggest subplots is clearly Iowa's superstar scorer, which we dissect further with our best Caitlin Clark player props for the Final Four. Led by Clark, Iowa is a 2.5-point favorite at our best sports betting sites, with tipoff set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio.

Don't sleep on Bueckers, who has re-entered the discussion among the best players in women's hoops with a scintillating tournament run of her own. She and Clark will look to lead their team to a victory on Friday to set up a likely showdown undefeated South Carolina - the clear favorite for the title according to the latest women's March Madness odds.

To accompany our NC State vs. South Carolina prediction, here is our best UConn vs. Iowa prediction and expert pick (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UConn (3) vs. Iowa (1) game info

  • When: Friday, April 5
  • Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Iowa -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

UConn vs. Iowa odds

Iowa-150-2.5 (-115)Over: 162.5
UConn+125+2.5 (-105)Under: 162.5

UConn vs. Iowa prediction

Iowa -2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM

Ever since Iowa beat South Carolina in last year's Final Four, it has felt almost inevitable that those two would meet again in this year's NCAA Tournament. And I'm not sure UConn is fully equipped to derail that dream matchup.

For as impressive as Bueckers has looked in this tournament - and she deserves her flowers - Clark has been a one-woman wrecking crew in March Madness. She's seemingly leveling up every round, too, after dropping 41 points and 12 assists to singlehandedly carry the Hawkeyes past defending champion LSU in the Elite Eight.

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That performance left Tigers guard Hailey Van Lith - Clark's primary defender - shrugging her shoulders in meme-able fashion, powerless to defend the best shooter in women's hoops. And I'm skeptical that UConn's defense, while effective on a per-possession basis, has the perimeter stopper to corral Clark when she goes full Super Saiyan. Really, does anyone?

I get into the superstar more in my article on how to bet Caitlin Clark player props.

I also can't help but think this is when the Huskies' lack of depth will rear its ugly head against the up-tempo Hawkeyes, especially with these teams having just four days between games instead of the nearly weeklong gap on the men's side. UConn's top players have routinely logged 40 minutes per game, and if Clark and Co. get into a rhythm, that progressive fatigue could show up in the final minutes.

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UConn vs. Iowa spread & Over/Under analysis

Iowa opened as a 3-point favorite over UConn when this matchup was first confirmed, but the Hawkeyes are now laying 2.5 points across four of our five best sportsbooks, with only Caesars offering -3 on the favorites. That's the best book for those looking to back the underdog Huskies.

Caesars is also the only sportsbook offering a total of 162, with the rest of our best sports betting apps dealing 162.5 ahead of the Final Four. It's tough to bet the Under when Clark and Bueckers are involved, but that feels like the prudent play for those wanting action on the Over/Under.

UConn-Iowa prediction made Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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