UCLA vs. Michigan State Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (Feb. 17)
After a tough two weeks, No. 15 Michigan State looks to get back on track against a UCLA team that's desperate to add to its NCAA Tournament resume.
Given the Bruins struggles against ranked opponents on the road, my UCLA vs. Michigan State prediction expects Sparty to win big as part of my college basketball predictions. Michigan State is an 8-point betting favorite for tonight's 8:30 p.m. ET (Peacock) tip from Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich.
And don't miss our North Carolina vs. NC State prediction for the first game of a doubleheader tonight on ESPN.
🏀 UCLA vs. Michigan State picks & odds today: Feb. 17
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Michigan State -8 (-110) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Under 139.5 (-105) | 1u -> 0.95u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop bet | Jeremy Fears Jr. Over 9.5 assists (-105) | 1u -> 0.95u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.81 units
💰 UCLA vs. Michigan State prediction & best bet
Michigan State -8 (-110)
UCLA head coach Mick Cronin complains a lot in press conferences, and it's frequently because he hates cross-country road games in the middle of the week. This is the Bruins' fifth game against a ranked opponent away from home this year ... they're 1-3 ATS in their previous four.
It's not just against ranked opponents either. In Big Ten play, UCLA is 2-5 ATS on the road. Michigan State is poised to take advantage, with its defense ranked No. 7 in adjusted efficiency and set to shut the Bruins down.
MSU is 5-2 ATS in Big Ten play at home.
Score prediction: Michigan State 72, UCLA 62
🔥 Best UCLA vs. Michigan State player prop bet
Jeremy Fears Over 9.5 assists (-105)
Even during Michigan State's 1-3 skid, Jeremy Fears Jr. has been phenomenal. When he's not being accused of playing dirty, he's often making some of the best passes in the country, which is why he's No. 1 nationally in assists per game (9.2).
The mid-season All-American has been as good as it gets for the last month, averaging 10.1 APG in his last nine and clearing 9.5 assists five times during that stretch.
UCLA is ranked 247th in APG allowed (14.1), and Fears has hit double-digit apples in three straight. I'd take this Over with odds as short as -120.
📊 Live UCLA vs. Michigan State odds
As tip-off approaches, I don't expect the odds to see much movement. Even with Michigan State dropping three of its last four, it's the clear better team on paper. UCLA has been horrific on the road this season, and I'd take the Spartans to cover even if the line at our best March Madness betting sites moves another point in MSU's direction to -9.5.
💡 How I'm betting UCLA vs. Michigan State
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Despite its recent struggles, four of Michigan State's losses this year have come to teams ranked top 15 in the country, with the only other one coming on the road. The Spartans have been handling business at home against unranked teams, and that's why I'm confident in putting one unit on them to win by nine-plus at Breslin.
UCLA's road struggles are just a bonus in this matchup, with Sparty covering probably being my favorite ATS play of the day. Rarely do I put more than one unit on any straight ATS bet, but I love MSU so much that this is the type of matchup where I'd at least consider it.
🚀 UCLA vs. Michigan State same-game parlay
Michigan State hasn't had many issues covering at home in Big Ten play, especially against unranked teams. And Tom Izzo's squads' elite defense has also made it one of the best Under bets in the nation (15-10). But the lack of high-scoring games shouldn't hurt Fears, who leads the nation in assists despite MSU being a defense-first program.
💵 UCLA vs. Michigan State SGP picks
- Michigan State -8.5 (-105)
- Under 139.5 (-110)
- Jeremy Fears Jr. Over 9.5 assists (-105)
Best odds: +500 via BetMGM (0.4u -> 2u)
📈 UCLA vs. Michigan State betting trends
| UCLA | Statistic | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| 17-8 | W-L record | 20-5 |
| 10-15 | ATS record | 13-12 |
| 12-13 | O/U record | 10-15 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
📺 How to watch UCLA vs. Michigan State
- Date: Tuesday, Feb. 17
- Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Breslin Center (East Lansing, Mich.)
- TV: Peacock
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