🏀 Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's Prediction & Picks: March Madness Round 1 (March 19)

Two contrasting styles will meet in a March Madness Round 1 matchup between No. 7 seed Saint Mary's and No. 10 Texas A&M.

The Aggies are the smaller team and want to play an up-tempo game, while the Gaels have a huge size advantage as the 12th-tallest squad in the country. That's why my Texas A&M vs. St. Mary's prediction suggests laying the 2.5 points with the Gaels as part of our March Madness predictions.

Tipoff is 7:35 p.m. ET on Thursday at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on truTV.

🏀 Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's picks & odds: March Madness Round 1

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.48 units

🏆 Who will win Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

I project Saint Mary's to win by six points in its Round 1 matchup against Texas A&M. The Gaels should be able to create extra possessions due to their rebounding advantage, and their excellent free-throw shooting should help them in the closing minutes of this victory.

Score prediction: Saint Mary's 76, Texas A&M 70

💰 Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's prediction & best bet

Saint Mary's -2.5 (-120)

There isn't much separating these two teams, so I think Saint Mary's rebounding advantage will be the biggest difference. The Gaels rank fourth in the country in rebound margin, posting the 15th-best offensive rebound rate and fourth-best defensive rebound rate. For comparison, the Aggies are 284th in defensive rebounding.

In addition, Saint Mary's can pull away from Texas A&M at the end of the game by knocking down free throws. The Gaels are shooting 81.1% from the charity stripe, which is the best clip in the country.

Between those two factors, I understand why this spread has started to climb to 3 and 3.5. I'll pay the -120 vig to stay under a full possession.

🔥 Best Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's player prop bet

Zach Clemence Under 3.5 rebounds (+120)

Zach Clemence has been the starting center for Texas A&M for the last three games. But don't worry, his job isn't to battle for boards. Clemence is out there to stretch the defense with his ability to knock down the long ball.

Clemence, who rode the Kansas bench for the past few years, is averaging 3.1 boards per game in his first season with Texas A&M. He's only cleared this rebound line in 11 of his 32 games this season.

Given Saint Mary's superior ability on the glass, I don't like Clemence's chances of clearing this line. I love getting a +120 value at bet365.

🚀 Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's same-game parlay

Since bet365 is the only shop offering a rebound line for Clemence, there wasn't a chance to shop the value of my Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's parlay. The total payout ended up being higher than expected, though that's because I had to sacrifice some value with worse odds on the spread and total. As such, I wouldn't put too much on this SGP.

💡 How I'm betting Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Saint Mary's hasn't advanced past the first weekend since its Sweet 16 run in 2010, but this team has generally been a solid bet in Round 1 over the past several years. The Gaels have won seven of their previous nine Round 1 matchups.

With that in mind, it's easy to make the case for backing Saint Mary's in what is priced as a one-possession contest. If the Gaels can control the glass against the Aggies' athletes, I like their chances of covering this spread.

I've allocated 2.5 units for this matchup, but Saint Mary's spread would be my favorite wager at 2.5 or better.

📊 Live Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's odds: March Madness Round 1

Saint Mary's opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the spread has climbed to as high as 3.5 in some spots. This is an indication of where the line might close by Thursday.

As for the total, the line has gone from 146.5 to 147.5 at FanDuel. I think that is also telling about where the market expects these odds to move this week.

📈 Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's betting trends

📺 How to watch Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's: March Madness Round 1

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 7:35 p.m. ET
• Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
• TV: truTV
• Streaming: truTV App