🏀 Tennessee vs. Virginia Prediction & Picks: March Madness Second Round (March 22)

It's chalk in this East Region Second Round March Madness matchup as No. 6 seed Tennessee faces No. 3 seed Virginia for the right to go to the Sweet 16. The lower-seeded Volunteers are 1.5-point betting favorites in this game that tips from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia at 6:10 p.m. ET, airing on TNT.

My Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction recognizes that these two teams won as favorites as part of a 16-0 SU day for favorites on Friday's slate, but believes a moneyline underdog winner will prevail in this contest, even if facing a rare big shooting day from Nate Ament. It's all part of our March Madness predictions. 

🏀 Tennessee vs. Virginia picks & odds: March Madness Second Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 3.26 units

🏆 Who will win Tennessee vs. Virginia?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes has some horrible ATS trends, which has me buying a Virginia win in a mild upset. Barnes is just 8-19 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2010, and entered the tournament as the least profitable coach based on $100 wagers in that span. And as an underdog or non-double-digit favorite, Barnes is 5-16 ATS in the “Big Dance” since 2009-10.

Score prediction: Virginia 70, Tennessee 69

💰 Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction & best bet

Virginia ML (+100)

Tennessee is being overvalued in this matchup after it dismantled previous one-loss Miami 78-56, while averaging 1.19 points per possession. The fact is the Volunteers defense was always going to show up, as they allowed just 0.91 points per possession to teams ranked outside the top 40.

Virginia poses other issues, but most glaring is how well it is set up to defend Tennessee inside. The Volunteers rank in the 89th-percentile in post-ups and the 86th percentile in efficiency, but the Cavaliers’ elite rim protection ranks fifth in 2-point percentage allowed.

🔥 Best Tennessee vs. Virginia player prop bet

Nate Ament Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+135)

If Virginia’s 2-point percentage defense is going to be stingy again, Tennessee will likely have to fire away from 3-point range early and often.

The Cavaliers’ opening round opponent, Wright State, was not known as a volume shooting type of team. But instead of the Raiders challenging Thijs De Ridder and Ugonna Onyenso at the rim, a team that averaged nearly seven 3-pointers per game in the regular season had already exceeded that by halftime (eight), en route to 13 made threes for the game.

We are getting great value on this play, as Tennessee ranked in the bottom 35 in the country in 3-point attempt rate, and the bottom-40 in percentage of its points coming from beyond the arc.

This is a three-star play, as though it didn’t shoot them often, Tennessee ranked in the 98th percentile in generating open catch-and-shoot threes this year.

🚀 Tennessee vs. Virginia same-game parlay

Backing Nate Ament to make multiple 3-pointers goes hand-in-hand with helping the Over cash. And while it may seem contradictory to the first leg of the parlay where we need Virginia to win outright, I am hoping that the Cavaliers strong interior defense is forcing Ament to play on the perimeter more, while negating some of his biggest strengths down low.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Tennessee vs. Virginia: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Since Virginia is only catching +1.5 points on the spread, that didn't present enough value for me to wager on it on its own. Instead, I am more intrigued by the plus-money odds for the Cavaliers moneyline, as the only way I'd lose that wager but win a point spread play is if Virginia loses by exactly one point.

Ament is 0-for-6 from 3-point range over the last two games, so I was needing to get plus-money odds to back his player prop. I will look more into other Volunteers' 3-point props when they become available, but Ament can easily cash this wager, given he has multiple 3-point makes in two of the three games prior to this recent poor stretch.

📊 Live Tennessee vs. Virginia odds: March Madness Second Round

[MetaBet Widget]

This was a sharp opening number, as no top sports betting site has budged off of Tennessee -1.5 since this line opened early Friday afternoon. The only somewhat significant change is that FanDuel saw its juice change from +102 to lay the -1.5 to -118. That suggests this line is more likely to go to -2 than -1, in which case I'd also be backing Virginia's point spread at that better number in addition to my moneyline play.

Sportsbooks are also in unison with an O/U of 137.5, also a number that hasn't budged even though 61% of the early wagers support the Under.

📈 Tennessee vs. Virginia betting trends

📺 How to watch Tennessee vs. Virginia: March Madness Second Round

• Date: Sunday, March 22
• Tipoff: 6:10 p.m. ET
• Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena (Philadelphia)
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: HBO Max