🏀 Tennessee vs. Michigan Prediction & Picks: March Madness Elite Eight (March 29)
Ja'Kobi Gillespie and No. 6 Tennessee will look to upset No. 1 Michigan and advance to its first Final Four in program history.
My best Tennessee vs. Michigan prediction for Sunday's 2:15 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+/March Madness Live) March Madness game at United Center in Chicago focuses on Michigan's ability to rebound and offset what has been Tennessee's biggest advantage. Michigan is favored by 7.5, and the Wolverines covering is one of my best March Madness predictions.
🏀 Tennessee vs. Michigan picks & odds: March Madness Elite Eight
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan -7.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 146.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie Under 2.5 made 3-pointers | +130 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.95u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 5.5 units | Max profit: 5.59 units
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🏆 Who will win Tennessee vs. Michigan?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Michigan to win this game by 12, because the Wolverines have the most efficient defense, according to KenPom. And while Tennessee has been able to win games in the NCAA Tournament by outrebounding teams 124-82, the Volunteers will have no such advantage against a Michigan team that averages 40.1 rebounds per game.
Score prediction: Michigan 75, Tennessee 63
💰 Tennessee vs. Michigan prediction & best bet
Michigan -7.5 (-110)
Michigan shoots 51.1% from the field, fourth-best in the country, and allows opponents to make 38.6% of shots, ranking second-best. While Tennessee's 24th-ranked shooting defense may be able to slow Michigan a bit, the Volunteers' 92nd-ranked shooting offense is in trouble.
Additionally, the Volunteers average 17.8 fouls per game, which ranks 212th in the country. In the Sweet 16, Tennessee committed 22 fouls but was bailed out by Iowa State shooting 15-of-25 from the line. Michigan shoots 75.2% from the charity stripe, and the Wolverines draw 19.4 personal fouls per game.
🔥 Best Tennessee vs. Michigan player prop bet
Ja'Kobi Gillespie Under 2.5 made 3-pointers (+130)
After an excellent start to the tournament, Gillespie was just 2-of-11 from 3-point range against Iowa State. He's still averaging 2.8 3-pointers per game, but the guard has now made two or fewer in four of his last six games against power conference teams.
Though Gillespie has made more threes than any other Tennessee player this season, he's shooting just 33.9% from long range. Michigan ranks 33rd in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to make only 30.7% of their attempts from downtown.
The price of +130 being offered by bet365 is excellent, but I worry it won't be around at tipoff, when the line will likely shift to 3.5 3-pointers and cost -140 or more.
🚀 Tennessee vs. Michigan same-game parlay
Both of these defenses are excellent, so despite how good each offense can be, I'm backing the defenses to keep this game from going Over 146.5.
Michigan is the better all-around team and will be able to compete with Tennessee on the glass, preventing second-chance opportunities to win this game by at least eight. And though Gillespie has been very good this tournament, his struggles from beyond the 3-point line against Iowa State are only going to intensify in this matchup.
💵 Tennessee vs. Michigan SGP picks
- Michigan -7.5
- Under 146.5
- Ja'Kobi Gillespie Under 2.5 made 3-pointers
Best odds: +738 via Sportsbook (0.5u -> 3.69u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49-47 | +68.38 units ✅ | 53.4% ✅ |
| Game picks | 31-19 | +28.05 units ✅ | 38.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 11-11 | -3.05 units ❌ | -8.8% ❌ |
| Parlays | 7-17 | +43.38 units ✅ | +211.6% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Tennessee vs. Michigan: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Tennessee has been a great story, but I'm not overly impressed with the Volunteers' tournament run.
Michigan is better offensively and defensively and will be able to compete on the glass, the one area where Tennessee usually has an advantage. That's why I'm risking two units on Michigan -7.5, and because both teams rank top 11 in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric, I'll risk two units on the Under as well. Additionally, Gillespie cooling off from 3-point range against Iowa State is a problem entering this matchup, so I'll back his Under for 1.5 units.
For even more coverage of this game, head over to the latest March Madness betting trends
📊 Live Tennessee vs. Michigan odds: March Madness Elite Eight
There has been no movement for the spread or total of this game. Michigan opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but after how good it looked against Alabama, I expect bettors to back the favorites and push this spread up to at least 8.5 before tipoff.
As for the total, I don't have a good read on where it will move. My gut tells me the number will drop to 145.5, but I would be shocked if it ever gets out of the 145.5-147.5 range.
📈 Tennessee vs. Michigan betting trends
| Tennessee | Statistic | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 25-11 | Record | 34-3 |
| 17-18-1 | ATS record | 17-20 |
| 17-19 | O/U record | 15-22 |
| 11th | KenPom ranking | 1st |
| 121.9 (31st) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 127.9 (5th) |
| 94.1 (11th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 89.8 (1st) |
📺 How to watch Tennessee vs. Michigan: March Madness Elite Eight
- Date: Sunday, March 29
- Tipoff: 2:15 p.m. ET
- Location: United Center (Chicago)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live/Paramount+
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