🏀 Tennessee vs. Michigan Player Props: March Madness Elite Eight Picks & Odds Today
No. 6 Tennessee has played well-rounded basketball in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm worried for the Volunteers' offense, particularly Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament, against No. 1 Michigan.
My best Tennessee vs. Michigan player props for today's 2:15 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+/March Madness Live) March Madness game at United Center in Chicago focus on Michigan's outstanding defensive play this season.
Michigan is the 7.5-point favorite, and my best March Madness predictions anticipate the Wolverines holding Tennessee well below its offensive averages, while Yaxel Lendeborg cleans up the glass.
š Best Tennessee vs. Michigan player props: March Madness Elite Eight today
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie, G, Tennessee | Under 2.5 made 3-pointers (+140 via bet365) | 1.5u ā 2.1u | āāā |
| Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan | Over 6.5 rebounds (+100 via FanDuel) | 1u ā 1u | āāā |
| Nate Ament, F, Tennessee | Under 16.5 points (-105 via bet365) | 1u ā 0.95u | āāā |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 4.05 units
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š° Best Tennessee vs. Michigan prop bet
See all of our March Madness prop bets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Ja'Kobi Gillespie Under 2.5 made 3-pointers (+140)
If you read my Tennessee vs. Michigan prediction, then you know this is my best player prop of the game. Gillespie is shooting just 33.9% from distance, and he's about to take on a defense that holds opponents to 30.7% from deep.
Gillespie made nine 3-pointers in his first two games of the tournament, but he hit just two against Iowa State while shooting 18.2% from distance. While Gillespie averages 8.1 3-point attempts per game, he hasn't made more than three in 10 consecutive outings against power conference competition.
š„ More Tennessee vs. Michigan prop picks
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 6.5 rebounds (+100)
Lendeborg is Michigan's second leading rebounder, averaging 7.0 per game. But the main reason I like this matchup is because of how well Michigan defends. The Wolverines boast the second-best shooting defense in the country, which has led to them recording 40.1 rebounds per game.
Tennessee is only allowing 29.6 rebounds per outing, but the Volunteers struggle significantly at preventing offensive rebounds while giving up 10.3 per game, which ranks 160th in the country. Lendeborg is averaging 1.9 offensive rebounds per game this season and 2.9 per matchup throughout his college career.
Because of Lendeborg's ability to grab offensive boards, I'll back him to hit his season average for FanDuel's excellent price of +100. Elsewhere, the offering is -130 at bet365.
Nate Ament Under 16.5 points (-105)
Ament scored 18 points against Iowa State in the Sweet 16, but he tallied 16 against Virginia in the previous round, and he didn't score at all against Miami (Ohio). While he's averaging 17.0 points per game, Ament has scored fewer than 16.5 points in 15 games this season, and now he faces the nation's second-best defense, according to KenPom.
Ament shoots well from deep for a 6-foot-10 forward, averaging 34.1% from beyond the arc. But with Michigan ranking 33rd in 3-point shooting defense, I expect Ament, who's averaging 1.4 3-pointers per game, to struggle from distance. And if he can't make threes, then this Over won't hit.
He scored at least 17 in 19 games this year, but Ament only managed to reach that mark six times without making multiple threes. Three of those performances came against non-power conference teams.
š Tennessee vs. Michigan same-game parlay
The story of this parlay is shooting struggles. Gillespie will struggle from deep, both teams will limp along from the floor, and those difficulties will lead to more rebounds for Lendeborg.
Because of Gillespie's Under, this three-leg parlay can only be created at bet365. While that means I had to take -130 on Lendeborg's rebounding total, this is still a great price.
💵 Tennessee vs. Michigan SGP picks
- Ja'Kobi Gillespie Under 2.5 made 3-pointers
- Yaxel Lendeborg Over 6.5 rebounds
- Under 146
Best odds: +711 via bet365 (0.5u -> 3.56u)
šµ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49-47 | +68.38 units ā | 53.4% ā |
| Game picks | 31-19 | +28.05 units ā | 38.4% ā |
| Player props | 11-11 | -3.05 units ā | -8.8% ā |
| Parlays | 7-17 | +43.38 units ā | +211.6% ā |
š” How I'm betting Tennessee vs. Michigan props: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I don't have a single two-unit player prop for this game because these teams are so evenly matched. The price for Gillespie's Under after a 2-for-11 shooting game makes it my only 1.5-unit play.
I'll also risk one unit on Ament's Under, because I think he'll have a hard time knocking down shots from deep, and I'll back Lendeborg to get to his season average at +100 for one unit. It's remarkable how different the prices are for Lendeborg to hit his Over across the best sports betting sites, so make sure you shop around before wagering.
šŗ How to watch Tennessee vs. Michigan: March Madness Elite Eight
- Date: Sunday, March 29
- Tipoff: 2:15 p.m. ET
- Location: United Center (Chicago)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Paramount+/March Madness Live
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