🏀 Tennessee vs. Iowa State Prediction & Picks: March Madness Sweet 16 (March 27)

No. 2 Iowa State will look to overcome No. 6 Tennessee's swarming defense on Friday and clinch a berth in the Elite Eight.

My best Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction anticipates a low-scoring matchup. Iowa State is a 4.5-point betting favorite, with tipoff from United Center in Chicago set for 10:10 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Our March Madness predictions also include an Over on Milan Momcilovic.

🏀 Tennessee vs. Iowa State picks & odds: March Madness Sweet 16

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 4.15 units

🏆 Who will win Tennessee vs. Iowa State?

I'm taking Iowa State to win a low-scoring game by three points.

While Tennessee's defense is great at defending the 3-point line, Iowa State has some of the best shooters in the country, who will be able to make big shots late in a tight game.

Score prediction: Iowa State 65, Tennessee 62

💰 Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction & best bet

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Under 138.5 (-110)

Tennessee ranks 27th in opponent field goal percentage (40.7%) and 23rd in opponent 3-point percentage (30.5%). The latter category is particularly important in this matchup, as Iowa State shoots 38.7% from deep, which is 13th-best in the country. Meanwhile, Iowa State is holding opponents to 42.7% from the floor, and the Cyclones will keep Tennessee's offense out of rhythm with turnovers, as Iowa State averages 9.1 steals per game. 

And even if both teams shoot well, possessions will be at a premium, as Iowa State ranks 204th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, while Tennessee ranks 306th.

🔥 Best Tennessee vs. Iowa State player prop bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Milan Momcilovic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (-105)

Momcilovic makes his living beyond the 3-point line, averaging 3.7 makes and 7.6 attempts per game. For the season, he's shooting 49.3% from deep, which is why I expect him to have success even in this tough matchup.

Momcilovic made four 3-pointers in Sunday's win over Kentucky, and he's made at least three 3-pointers in three consecutive games. In his final game before the NCAA Tournament, he went 8-of-14 from deep against Arizona, the country's 42nd-best 3-point defense.

Momcilovic has made at least four 3-pointers in 17 of his 36 games this season. With Iowa State's second-leading scorer, Joshua Jefferson, likely to play limited minutes, if he plays at all, I expect more attempts from Momcilovic. Considering 67% of Momcilovic's field goal attempts are from 3-point range, those added attempts will be from outside the arc rather than inside of it.

🚀 Tennessee vs. Iowa State same-game parlay

I'm expecting a low-scoring game, which is why I anticipate Tennessee covering this spread. And even though Iowa State will likely shoot worse than usual, Momcilovic should still get plenty of opportunities, especially if Jefferson doesn't play. Him hitting his Over on 3-pointers is a great contradiction to the Under and the spread, which helps elevate these parlay odds.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Tennessee vs. Iowa State: March Madness strategy

If I knew Jefferson was out, then I'd have much more faith in Tennessee based on the latest March Madness betting trends. But with Jefferson's status up in the air, I'm only willing to risk one unit on the Volunteers at this time. I love the Under in this game, because while both teams are great offensively, the defenses will dictate the tempo of this game. Therefore, that's a two-unit play. And though Tennessee plays great 3-point defense, very few teams have been able to shut down Momcilovic, so I'll risk 1.5 units on him hitting his Over.

📊 Live Tennessee vs. Iowa State odds: March Madness Sweet 16

The spread hasn't moved, and I don't expect it to until Jefferson's status is confirmed. If he plays, then I'd want to see Tennessee at +6.5. If he doesn't, then I'm leaning towards wagering two units on Tennessee +4.5. As for the total, the number opened at 137.5, and it's gone up to 138.5. I recommend waiting and seeing if the total continues to trend up before wagering closer to tipoff.

📈 Tennessee vs. Iowa State betting trends

📺 How to watch Tennessee vs. Iowa State: March Madness Sweet 16

• Date: Friday, March 27
• Tipoff: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Location: United Center (Chicago)
• TV: TBS/truTV
• Streaming: March Madness Live