🏀 Tennessee vs. Iowa State Player Props: March Madness Sweet 16 Picks & Odds (March 27)
I don't know what the offense for No. 2 Iowa State will look like, as we all await news about whether star Joshua Jefferson will play in this game, but I'm confident in the Iowa State defense against the offense of No. 6 Tennessee.
My best Tennessee vs. Iowa State player props for Friday's 10:10 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/March Madness Live) March Madness game at United Center in Chicago focus on Milan Momcilovic, Ja'Kobi Gillespie, and Nate Ament. Iowa State is favored by 4.5, as I make my best March Madness predictions below.
š Best Tennessee vs. Iowa State player props: March Madness Sweet 16
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milan Momcilovic, F, Iowa State | Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+100 via FanDuel) | 1.5u ā 1.5u | āāā |
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie, G, Tennessee | Under 19.5 points (-120 via bet365) | 1.5u ā 1.25u | āāā |
| Nate Ament, F, Tennessee | Under 5.5 rebounds (-114 via FanDuel) | 1u ā 0.87u | āāā |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.67 units
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š° Best Tennessee vs. Iowa State prop bet
See all of our March Madness prop bets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Milan Momcilovic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+100)
If you checked out my Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction, then you know I love Momcilovic in this matchup. The sharpshooter averages 3.7 made 3-pointers per game, and he's shooting 49.3% from deep this season.
Momcilovic has made at least four 3-pointers in 17 of his 36 games this season, so getting this at +100 at FanDuel provides excellent value, especially since the status of Jefferson, Iowa State's second-leading scorer, is still unknown. Get in at FanDuel before the sportsbook catches up to the rest of the market, which has Momcilovic at -105 or worse.
š„ More Tennessee vs. Iowa State prop picks
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Ja'Kobi Gillespie Under 19.5 points (-120)
Gillespie has scored at least 21 points in three consecutive games, and he leads Tennessee with 18.4 points per contest. However, Iowa State ranks fifth in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom, and the Cyclones are allowing just 65.3 points per game, which is tied for the 12th-fewest in the nation.
Gillespie does a lot of his damage from beyond the 3-point line, averaging 2.8 makes per game. However, he's only a 34.5% 3-point shooter, and I expect him to shoot worse than his season average against a defense allowing opponents to make just 32% of their 3-point attempts.
The price for this Under is very expensive at every major sportsbook, which is what is keeping this from being a four-star play. That said, because this is such a tough matchup, I'm hoping to get Under 18.5 for +100 or better if it becomes available before tipoff.
Nate Ament Under 5.5 rebounds (-114)
Ament is averaging 6.4 rebounds per game, but he hasn't played well in the NCAA Tournament, recording just seven total rebounds in the first two rounds. He didn't score at all in the first round, and because of that, head coach Rick Barnes played him just 19 minutes, his second-lowest total of the season.
Iowa State is allowing the 24th-fewest rebounds per game. The Cyclones also rank 44th in offensive rebounds allowed, so Ament, who is averaging 1.8 offensive boards per game, may not pull down any in this game.
Many sportsbooks aren't letting you take an Under for Ament, and while him pulling down six or seven rebounds is tempting for a really good price, this is a brutal matchup for him. That said, I wouldn't pay more than -115 for Under 5.5 just in case he's settled in after a rough first weekend.
š Tennessee vs. Iowa State same-game parlay
Even if Jefferson plays, I expect his minutes to be limited, so I'm backing Momcilovic to make at least four 3-pointers. And while I expect Gillespie to struggle, Tennessee is good enough defensively to keep this game close. Expecting Tennessee to stay within striking distance is a contradiction that is realistic and also helps elevate these odds at FanDuel.
💵 Tennessee vs. Iowa State SGP picks
- Milan Momcilovic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers
- Ja'Kobi Gillespie Under 19.5 points
- Tennessee +4.5
Best odds: +554 via FanDuel (0.5u -> 2.77u)
šµ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-44 | +29.27 units ā | +28.4% ā |
| Game picks | 24-19 | +16.66 units ā | +26.7% ā |
| Player props | 6-10 | -9.23 units ā | -37.7% ā |
| Parlays | 4-15 | +21.84 units ā | +136.5% ā |
š” How I'm betting Tennessee vs. Iowa State props: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
All Momcilovic does is knock down 3-pointers, so I'm risking 1.5 units on him to hit his Over in this game, even if this is a tough matchup. Gillespie has been excellent of late, but he hasn't faced a defense as good as Iowa State's in a long time. If the price was better, I'd be willing to risk two units. As for Ament, he was great during the regular season, but the freshman has struggled in the tournament. I'm risking one unit on him to play poorly again, especially since Iowa State allows so few rebounds.
šŗ How to watch Tennessee vs. Iowa State: March Madness Sweet 16
- Date: Friday, March 27
- Tipoff: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Location: United Center (Chicago)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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